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| Wednesday, February 21 | |||||
| Season in review: Montreal Expos Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Montreal Expos did in the 2000 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 739 738 Runs allowed 805 902 Run Margin -66 -164 Wins 75 67 Pythagorean wins 74 65 Placement 4th 4thLes Expos de Montreal finished fourth in the NL East last year, 28 games behind Atlanta and 28 light years away from any meaningful connection with most of their potential audience in Quebec. Aggressive new owner Jeffrey Loria initially took charge of a despondent team, giving it temporary hope that the future would be different from the recent past. Nevertheless, Loria's bitter feuding with his minority partners and the local media soon drove the team into a far deeper funk than it had experienced in 1999. The Expos finished 2000 with a nine-game losing streak, not even knowing if they had played their last-ever game in Montreal. While the few remaining baseball fans in Quebec have been given a reprieve for at least one more season, the cancellation of plans for a new ballpark make the team's future in Montreal an open question. Montreal reached its high-water mark on June 5 after beating the Yankees to improve its record to 31-23, good for second place in the tough NL East. Afterward, however, the team played only .333 ball, losing 72 of their remaining 108 games, including losing 23 of 31 in August, their worst record in August since their inaugural season in 1969! Aside from the off-the-field soap opera that consumed vastly more Canadian pulpwood and ink than the Expos on-the-field exploits, the key to Montreal's season was the remarkable number of injuries the team suffered--especially on the pitching staff. Tendinitis was the watchword in 2000 for Montreal pitchers; a half dozen of them were disabled during 2000 with elbow, shoulder, or triceps tendinitis. Key position players Largely due to good health among the regulars, the emergence of Jose Vidro as a bona fide star, and the surprising play of Geoff Blum (who saved the team from a season-long black hole at the hot corner), the Montreal offense acquitted itself about as well as could be expected in 2000. Nevertheless, sub-par bats at third, catcher, center, and left (after the trade of Rondell White) clearly dragged the team down, and new first baseman Lee Stevens didn't provide the power boost the club hoped for. Chris Widger, c, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 492 124 27 2 17 53 69 4 40 1 103 3 3 .252 .312 .419 .731 65 Prorated Mon 285 72 16 1 10 31 40 2 23 1 60 2 2 .252 .312 .419 .731 37 Actual Mon 281 67 17 2 12 31 34 1 29 3 61 1 2 .238 .311 .441 .752 38 Prorated Sea 11 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 .252 .312 .419 .731 1 Actual Sea 11 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 0 0 .091 .167 .364 .530 1 Prorated Tot 296 75 16 1 10 32 42 2 24 1 62 2 2 .252 .312 .419 .731 39 Actual Tot 292 68 17 2 13 32 35 1 30 3 63 1 2 .233 .306 .438 .744 39Waived and sent to Seattle on August 8, Widger couldn't hold onto his job despite hitting for better-than-expected pop. Brian Schneider, c, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 71 17 3 0 2 7 9 0 4 0 9 0 0 .239 .280 .366 .646 7 Prorated Mon 116 28 5 0 3 11 15 0 7 0 15 0 0 .239 .280 .366 .646 12 Actual Mon 115 27 6 0 0 6 11 0 7 2 24 0 1 .235 .276 .287 .563 9There is scant evidence that Schneider will become a prime offensive player, but the Expos love his athleticism, defense, and take-charge attitude. He batted only .204 in 93 at-bats against left-handed hurlers, threw out just 26% of enemy base stealers, and was behind the plate for a higher-than-average number of wild pitches and passed balls. This puts a lot of pressure on Schneider's game-calling ability. In his defense, though, he really should have been gaining experience in the minors rather than playing in the majors. Lenny Webster, c, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 89 21 4 0 2 10 12 1 8 0 13 0 0 .236 .306 .348 .654 9 Prorated Mon 78 18 4 0 2 9 11 1 7 0 11 0 0 .236 .306 .348 .654 8 Actual Mon 81 17 3 0 0 6 5 0 6 1 14 0 0 .210 .264 .247 .511 4Webster spent much of 2000 injured, and he did not play well when physically able. He also had a scrape with the law on a weapons charge and underwent surgery on his left shoulder on October 3. Needless to say, Webster's career is in some jeopardy. Charlie O'Brien, c, age 40 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 67 13 3 0 1 5 7 2 4 0 13 0 0 .194 .257 .284 .540 5 Prorated Mon 19 4 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 4 0 0 .194 .257 .284 .540 1 Actual Mon 19 4 1 0 1 1 2 0 2 1 7 0 0 .211 .286 .421 .707 2Released on June 22, his career is presumably over. Lee Stevens, 1b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 566 160 31 2 29 85 91 1 53 7 138 1 2 .283 .342 .498 .841 92 Prorated Mon 454 128 25 2 23 68 73 1 42 6 111 1 2 .283 .342 .498 .841 74 Actual Mon 449 119 27 2 22 60 75 2 48 6 105 0 0 .265 .337 .481 .818 73A consistent power producer who still chases too many bad pitches, Stevens is a dead lowball hitter who hung in surprisingly well against lefties in 2000. He'll be around again this year, but might wind up platooning with Fernando Seguignol. Stevens can dig throws out of the dirt effectively and has average mobility around the bag. He missed the last month of the season with a strained tendon in his left big toe. Fernando Seguignol, 1b/lf/rf, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 75 18 4 0 4 11 13 2 7 1 22 0 0 .240 .318 .453 .771 11 Prorated Mon 154 37 8 0 8 23 27 4 14 2 45 0 0 .240 .318 .453 .771 22 Actual Mon 162 45 8 0 10 22 22 3 9 0 46 0 1 .278 .326 .512 .838 25His ability to hit left-handers with power (.358 last year with six HR in 81 at-bats) will keep him around for a long time, even though he will strike out often and rarely walk. Seguignol has below-average range, both in left field and at first base, and won't hit enough against righties to overcome those problems and be a regular. Jose Vidro, 2b, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 613 169 43 1 13 83 76 7 50 2 73 2 3 .276 .335 .413 .748 84 Prorated Mon 599 165 42 1 13 81 74 7 49 2 71 2 3 .276 .335 .413 .748 83 Actual Mon 606 200 51 2 24 101 97 2 49 4 69 5 4 .330 .379 .540 .918 120Vidro's offensive explosion in 2000 was a surprise, including his hitting .373 with a .602 slugging average against lefties. A good two-strike hitter due to his willingness and ability to push the ball other way, Vidro finished third in the NL in doubles and led the team (tied with Guerrero) with 101 runs. While Vidro doesn't take many walks, he doesn't strike out often either, and uses the whole field. Even if his power numbers decline, which one would expect, Vidro is still an above-average offensive player. Defensively, Vidro is a mixed bag. He has good enough hands and can make the necessary throws, but does not show good range at second. The Expos appear comfortable with the tradeoff of getting his bat into the lineup at the expense of defense; otherwise, Vidro would have been at third and Geoff Blum at second. Michael Barrett, 3b/c, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 571 167 38 5 13 76 78 4 42 5 55 1 2 .292 .344 .445 .789 82 Prorated Mon 274 80 18 2 6 36 37 2 20 2 26 0 1 .292 .344 .445 .789 39 Actual Mon 271 58 15 1 1 28 22 1 23 5 35 0 1 .214 .277 .288 .565 21The Expos screwed up Barrett's career last year by switching him from catcher to third base and, finally last summer, back to catcher. His defense at third was predictably terrible, as Barrett fielded .891 in 55 games before being sent back to the minors and recalled (to catch) on August 11 after Chris Widger had been disposed of. Barrett started 24 times behind the dish in the last six weeks. A promising hitter with some doubles power, and apparently one of the nicest kids in the game, Barrett has big tests ahead of him in 2001: to regain his equilibrium behind the plate and regain his touch at the plate. It's odd that the Expos, usually capable of getting the most out of their young players, would make such a silly mistake with a promising hitter just to fill a hole at third base with plenty of other candidates were in the picture (Vidro, Blum, Andy Tracy). Geoff Blum, 3b/ss/2b/1b, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 66 15 3 0 2 9 7 0 7 0 11 1 0 .227 .297 .364 .661 8 Prorated Mon 334 76 15 0 10 45 35 0 35 0 56 5 0 .227 .297 .364 .661 39 Actual Mon 343 97 20 2 11 40 45 3 26 2 60 1 4 .283 .335 .449 .784 51Blum got more field time than he bargained for in 2000 when Michael Barrett washed out at third. An extremely competitive, hustling player, Blum lacks speed and range but has good enough hands and a solid enough arm to fill in at all four infield positions and even the outfield. The Expos have explored making him a regular in left field during for 2001, but Blum struggles with breaking balls and won't produce enough offense to contribute as an everyday player. Mike Mordecai, 3b/ss/2b/1b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 95 21 4 1 2 12 9 0 8 0 14 1 1 .221 .279 .347 .626 9 Prorated Mon 166 37 7 2 3 21 16 0 14 0 24 2 2 .221 .279 .347 .626 16 Actual Mon 169 48 16 0 4 20 16 1 12 0 34 2 2 .284 .335 .450 .785 262000 was Mordecai's best offensive season since 1995 in Atlanta. He made 33 starts at third base, which gives an idea of just how chaotic that position was for the Expos, and also started games at each of the other infield positions--Felipe Alou loves versatility. Mordecai is a very poor pinch-hitter, which limits his usefulness off the pine. While he batted .324 as a starter in 2000, he wouldn't produce nearly enough offense on a full-time basis to play more often. Andy Tracy, 3b/1b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 67 14 3 0 3 11 13 1 7 0 17 0 0 .209 .293 .388 .681 8 Prorated Mon 195 41 9 0 9 32 38 3 20 0 49 0 0 .209 .293 .388 .681 23 Actual Mon 192 50 8 1 11 29 32 2 22 1 61 1 0 .260 .339 .484 .824 33Tracy is a hitter, at least against right-handed pitchers (.272, 10 HR in 162 at-bats). He deserves, and should get, a role as a platoon player. What position he will play, however, is up in the air. Fernando Tatis has pushed him off third, Lee Stevens is on first, and Tracy doesn't have the ability to play left field. He has some trade value, and may have to get a new start somewhere else. Trace Coquillette, 3b/2b/lf/rf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 65 16 4 0 1 8 8 3 6 0 11 1 1 .246 .333 .354 .687 8 Prorated Mon 58 14 4 0 1 7 7 3 5 0 10 1 1 .246 .333 .354 .687 7 Actual Mon 59 12 4 0 1 6 8 0 7 0 19 0 0 .203 .284 .322 .606 5Coquillette can play three infield positions, but won't hit much at any of them. He has inked a Triple-A deal with the Cubs for 2001. Orlando Cabrera, ss, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 540 138 29 10 8 75 55 3 37 3 58 11 7 .256 .305 .391 .696 62 Prorated Mon 416 106 22 8 6 58 42 2 29 2 45 8 5 .256 .305 .391 .696 48 Actual Mon 422 100 25 1 13 47 55 1 25 3 28 4 4 .237 .279 .393 .673 43While Cabrera had a disappointing season, especially on offense, there are some mitigating factors to the still-young shortstop's season. His father died in May, and just as he was starting to heat up at the dish in July, he separated his right shoulder. After coming back, he physically wasn't right during August and September. Cabrera made good contact at the plate and showed more punch than anyone expected. A more patient approach would help him. Defensively, he has better range than he showed in 2000 and is a steady fielder with a good arm. The Expos have been trying to trade him this winter without success, which is odd. Tomas de la Rosa is crackerjack defensively, but isn't ready to hit in the majors. Tomas de la Rosa, ss, age 22 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual Mon 66 19 3 1 2 7 9 1 7 0 11 2 1 .288 .365 .455 .819 11De la Rosa is almost spectacular defensively, with great range and hands, but isn't a hitter yet. Felipe Alou spot-started him, rarely letting any pitcher see him too often, which most likely kept de la Rosa from sinking offensively. He hit just .203 with one homer in 103 games at Triple-A Ottawa, which is probably closer to his true level. However, he is so good with the glove that it might be tough not to keep him around even if another season at Ottawa would be best for his development at the plate. Rondell White, lf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 585 173 29 6 24 89 79 11 42 2 94 14 7 .296 .351 .489 .840 98 Prorated Mon 293 87 15 3 12 45 40 6 21 1 47 7 4 .296 .351 .489 .840 49 Actual Mon 290 89 24 0 11 52 54 2 28 0 67 5 1 .307 .370 .503 .873 56 Prorated ChN 67 20 3 1 3 10 9 1 5 0 11 2 1 .296 .351 .489 .840 11 Actual ChN 67 22 2 0 2 7 7 2 5 0 12 0 2 .328 .392 .448 .840 12 Prorated Tot 360 107 18 4 15 55 49 7 26 1 58 9 4 .296 .351 .489 .840 60 Actual Tot 357 111 26 0 13 59 61 4 33 0 79 5 3 .311 .374 .493 .867 67Traded to the Cubs in exchange for Scott Downs on July 31, White's departure was a signal that the new era Jeffrey Loria had promised looked a lot like the old era. A valuable player and a good left fielder, though somewhat overrated. If he could stay healthy, he'd be a lot more valuable. Wilton Guerrero, lf/rf/cf, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 69 20 3 1 1 9 7 0 4 0 9 2 1 .290 .329 .406 .735 9 Prorated Mon 289 84 13 4 4 38 29 0 17 0 38 8 4 .290 .329 .406 .735 38 Actual Mon 288 77 7 2 2 30 23 0 19 0 41 8 1 .267 .312 .326 .638 30Guerrero is a gifted but hard-to-use player. He has terrific speed but doesn't utilize it effectively in the field or on the bases. He has a slashing bat, but little patience or power at the plate. While Guerrero's range in the outfield is good, his hands are mediocre and he is a sub-standard infielder. The Expos are full of utility players, and Guerrero's time with the franchise has run out. The Reds have signed him for 2001. Terry Jones, lf/cf/rf, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 68 15 2 0 0 8 4 0 5 0 12 5 2 .221 .274 .250 .524 5 Prorated Mon 164 36 5 0 0 19 10 0 12 0 29 12 5 .221 .274 .250 .524 12 Actual Mon 168 42 8 2 0 30 13 0 10 1 32 7 2 .250 .292 .321 .614 16If Jones could only use his great speed to steal first base, he'd be a star. Unfortunately, he cannot hit and doesn't draw enough walks to be helpful. Jones does have good range and hands in center field, he will bunt, and he sure can run. But he won't be more than a fifth outfielder. Peter Bergeron, cf/lf, age 22 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 607 170 32 9 7 105 54 1 74 2 103 28 18 .280 .358 .397 .755 91 Prorated Mon 519 145 27 8 6 90 46 1 63 2 88 24 15 .280 .358 .397 .755 77 Actual Mon 518 127 25 7 5 80 31 0 58 0 100 11 13 .245 .320 .349 .669 60During Bergeron's rookie season, it became clear that he had a long way to go. Bergeron has an accurate arm and as a rookie led NL outfielders with 16 assists, his range in both center and left was good but not enough to make up for his weak bat. He showed some patience, but did not hit well enough against righties (.251) to offset his deficiencies with southpaws. Getting the bat on the ball was a problem for Bergeron, but the Expos saw improvement as the year went on and believe that he both hit better this year and steal bases more often and effectively. It is not yet clear that Bergeron can hold off the talented Milton Bradley. Milton Bradley, cf, age 22 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 70 19 4 1 1 10 8 0 5 0 12 2 1 .271 .320 .400 .720 9 Prorated Mon 161 44 9 2 2 23 18 0 11 0 28 5 2 .271 .320 .400 .720 20 Actual Mon 154 34 8 1 2 20 15 1 14 0 32 2 1 .221 .288 .325 .613 15Bradley showed impressive physical abilities with the Expos, but he struggled to make contact. He may need another half-season at Triple-A to iron this out, but Bradley is expected to be a quality line-drive hitter once he gets to the majors for good. His range wasn't great in center, but he did throw out six runners in just 41 contests. Vladimir Guerrero, rf, age 24 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Mon 586 186 35 7 35 102 113 7 52 11 73 11 7 .317 .378 .580 .958 123 Prorated Mon 580 184 35 7 35 101 112 7 51 11 72 11 7 .317 .378 .580 .958 122 Actual Mon 571 197 28 11 44 101 123 8 58 23 74 9 10 .345 .410 .664 1.074 147There is plenty of evidence to support the contention that Guerrero is one of the five best players in the game. A fearsome hitter with power who does not strike out nearly as much as most power hitters, Guerrero continues to improve both at bat and in the field. Against southpaws, the Big V hit .376 with 12 homers in 133 at-bats and 15 walks. Righties "held" him to a .336 average and "only" 32 long ones. Although most baserunners don't even challenge Guerrero's strong right arm anymore, he still threw out 12 runners to rank among the NL leaders. His range was very good in right field and he cut his errors from 19 to 10. If Guerrero still wants to improve, he could do so on the bases. There is no way that anyone with Guerrero's speed should have such a poor base-stealing record. His hustle and competitiveness are unquestioned, and he has good baseball smarts. Key pitchers Amazingly enough, given that the Expos' mound corps wasn't composed of fragile veterans hanging on for one last season, the team was forced to disable 12 different pitchers--some of them more than once. Injury after injury dominoed all the way down the staff, forcing the call-ups of many youngsters who weren't ready for prime time. Even worse, too many young pitchers were also forced into unaccustomed roles, ruining the underdog team's hope of staying in contention for the Wild Card. This rash of injuries was one key reason that pitching coach Bobby Cuellar fired in mid-season. One of the club's key off-season acquisitions, Hideki Irabu, managed only 11 starts at an ERA of 7.24. A second key pitcher acquired from New York, setup southpaw Graeme Lloyd, missed the whole season with what seemed initially to be a minor injury. Young starters Carl Pavano, Mike Thurman, and Tony Armas managed to stay healthy enough to make only 17, 17, and 15 starts, respectively. Southpaw Scott Downs, acquired from Chicago for Rondell White in midseason, made only one start north of the border before going down for the season with an sprained elbow ligament. The carnage was unrelenting and truly astonishing. Dustin Hermanson, starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.88 32 32 12 12 0 214 204 22 71 158 .252 .708 Prorated Mon 3.88 31 31 12 12 0 209 199 22 69 154 .252 .708 Actual Mon 4.77 38 30 12 14 4 198 226 26 75 94 .290 .819Hermanson began and ended the year in the rotation, but took a three-week detour as a closer in May after Ugueth Urbina went out with elbow problems. He did not do well in relief, blowing three of seven save chances, and was happy to return to starting duty. Unfortunately, Hermanson only enjoyed sporadic success in the rotation. In five of his 30 starts he allowed seven or more earned runs, and he would often follow one or two good starts with three bad ones. Usually most effective in cooler weather, Hermanson in 2000 was indeed at his best in April and September. The big problem for Hermanson last year was left-handers. Lefties tagged him for a .321 average last year (and a .965 OPS), a far cry from Hermanson's usual balanced performance against hitters from both sides. The last two years were disappointments for Hermanson, who had previously appeared to be one of the league's rising pitching stars. Dealt from Montreal over the winter, he will try to recapture his old form with the Cardinals. Javier Vazquez, starter, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.84 32 32 10 12 0 191 200 29 72 151 .270 .793 Prorated Mon 4.84 36 36 11 14 0 217 227 33 82 172 .270 .793 Actual Mon 4.05 33 33 11 9 0 218 247 24 61 196 .286 .769Vasquez has lowered his ERA by a full run each of the last two seasons, and in 2000 elevated himself into a staff ace and into the realm of the league's best starting pitchers. Much more willing to challenge hitters, Vasquez dramatically sliced his bases on balls, a tactic which paid dividends. He uses a recently-perfected changeup to get his strikeouts, and induces ground balls with an above-average sinking fastball. Vasquez is putting all of the pieces together. While he allowed hitters more hits in 2000, they had fewer walks and extra-base hits, minimizing the damage. At his age, and with his stuff and command, Vasquez has a lot of success ahead. Injuries, which he has avoided so far, are the only possible concern. Hideki Irabu, starter, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.45 32 32 10 12 0 194 192 30 69 154 .258 .763 Prorated Mon 4.45 10 10 3 4 0 58 57 9 20 46 .258 .763 Actual Mon 7.24 11 11 2 5 0 55 77 9 14 42 .339 .910Surgeries to clean up his right elbow and left knee gutted Irabu's campaign. He made ten starts in April and May, most of which were lousy, before undergoing the knee procedure on May 31. After one last start on July 27, the elbow acted up and his season was over. Irabu was just awful last year, falling behind too often in the count and getting tattooed. Should he be healthy, Irabu could well improve in 2001, but he's in poor shape and it's getting late in the game. Carl Pavano, starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.29 32 32 10 12 0 195 202 21 63 130 .270 .750 Prorated Mon 4.29 16 16 5 6 0 96 99 10 31 64 .270 .750 Actual Mon 3.06 15 15 8 4 0 97 89 8 34 64 .248 .711Yet another quality Expos moundsman who suffered a debilitating injury in 2000, Pavano didn't pitch after June 24 because of a sore elbow that finally required bone-chip removal. When able to pitch, Pavano was crackerjack; in ten of his starts, he allowed two runs or less, and only went fewer than six innings three times. He had big trouble with left-handed batters (.312) but held righties to a sad .188 mark. Pavano has three plus pitches and good enough control, but now has suffered either an elbow or shoulder injury for each of the last three seasons. The Expos should probably not count on him to make more than 25 starts. Mike Thurman, starter, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.33 27 27 8 10 0 164 161 22 62 98 .258 .756 Prorated Mon 4.33 16 16 5 6 0 97 95 13 37 58 .258 .756 Actual Mon 6.42 17 17 4 9 0 88 112 9 46 52 .315 .863The Expos were expecting much more from Thurman in 2000, but a bad elbow limited his effectiveness. Thurman allowed lefty swingers to bat .336 and walked them 22 times with just nine strikeouts. He wasn't very effective against right-handers, either. If Thurman can stay healthy, and cut his fastball more effectively to get lefties out, he should have more success. He does keep the ball down and, when physically sound, has two good pitches (sinking fastball and curve). At this point, however, he'll have to struggle just to stay in the major leagues. Tony Armas Jr., starter, age 22 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.66 3 3 1 1 0 19 20 2 8 12 .270 .756 Prorated Mon 4.66 14 14 5 5 0 93 96 10 38 58 .270 .756 Actual Mon 4.36 17 17 7 9 0 95 74 10 50 59 .218 .688Injuries ate up a big part of his 2000 season. Due to a sore elbow, Armas didn't pitch for the Expos until May 13; he was effective through June, then had two bad starts, two good ones, and two more rotten ones before landing on the shelf with a strained rotator cuff. When Armas returned in September, two of his five starts were seven-inning shutout appearances, and he was rocked in the other three. He has developed four above-average pitches (2- and 4-seam fastballs, a slider, and a changeup) but struggled with control early and late in the campaign. Injuries are his only real concern; he was far more effective in 2000 than expected and his future is obviously very bright at age 23. Scott Downs, starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection ChN 5.60 3 3 1 1 0 18 19 3 8 17 .279 .807 Prorated ChN 5.60 16 16 5 5 0 96 104 16 44 93 .279 .807 Actual ChN 5.17 18 18 4 3 0 94 117 13 37 63 .310 .894 Prorated Mon 5.60 1 1 0 0 0 4 4 1 2 3 .279 .807 Actual Mon 9.00 1 1 0 0 0 3 5 0 3 0 .385 .885 Prorated Tot 5.60 17 17 6 6 0 100 108 17 45 96 .279 .807 Actual Tot 5.29 19 19 4 3 0 97 122 13 40 63 .312 .894While the Expos' trade of Rondell White to the Cubs on July 31 certainly was a salary dump, Downs--who came over in exchange--is no cipher and has talent. His curve and changeup are above-average pitches, and he is sneaky with his fastball. Downs has the control he needs to be effective. However, after just one start for his new club, he was shelved with a sprained ligament in his elbow. The Expos believe he will return to duty this spring. He improved as the 2000 season went on, but still hasn't been able to harness his breaking pitch for strikeouts. Trey Moore, starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 5.91 4 4 1 2 0 21 27 3 7 13 .310 .841 Prorated Mon 5.91 7 7 2 4 0 40 50 6 13 24 .310 .841 Actual Mon 6.62 8 8 1 5 0 35 55 7 21 24 .364 .998After missing the '99 campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery, Moore came back to make 20 starts (12 at Triple-A) but then was sidelined for the balance of the year with a sore shoulder after a September 8 loss at Atlanta. However, Moore was not particularly effective, and the Expos did not re-sign him. The Braves have inked him for 2001. It's odd that the frugal Expos, having paid him during his rehabilitation, would not try to keep Moore for another season to see if he could come back stronger. Most pitchers recovering from serious injuries take more than a year to get their game back, and how hard would it have been to retain Moore? T.J. Tucker, starter, age 21 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Mon 11.57 2 2 0 1 0 7 11 5 3 2 .344 1.244Tucker was a first-round pick in the 1997 draft. After eight starts at Double-A, he joined Montreal on June 3. Unfortunately, after just two starts, he came up with a bad elbow that required season-ending surgery. Tucker's status for 2001 is in question. Felipe Lira, long reliever/spot starter, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 7.94 9 0 0 1 0 17 24 3 7 11 .338 .963 Prorated Mon 7.94 52 0 0 6 0 98 139 17 40 64 .338 .963 Actual Mon 5.40 53 7 5 8 0 102 129 11 36 51 .310 .832The rubber-armed Lira didn't pitch especially well in 2000 but did help the Expos get through the season. As a starter, he was 0-6 with a 7.76 ERA. He isn't likely to make seven starts for Montreal in 2001. Julio Santana, long reliever/spot starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Bos 5.60 9 0 1 1 0 18 21 2 8 9 .300 .846 Prorated Mon 5.60 33 0 4 4 0 64 76 7 29 33 .300 .846 Actual Mon 5.67 36 4 1 5 0 67 69 11 33 58 .271 .823 The Expos apparently thought they could work some magic on Santana, a hard thrower with terrible command who has been with four organizations in the last three years. While Santana gamely took the ball for Montreal, working in starting and middle relief roles, he showed little improvement from his previous performances. A positive? Santana held right-handed batters to a .236 average. However, that wasn't good enough to offset the .975 OPS that righty batters achieved against him. He has signed a Triple-A contract with the Mets for 2001. Guillermo Mota, middle reliever, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.56 70 0 6 4 3 99 94 8 40 61 .253 .711 Prorated Mon 3.56 21 0 2 1 1 30 28 2 12 18 .253 .711 Actual Mon 6.00 29 0 1 1 0 30 27 3 12 24 .245 .710Mota's pitched well most of the time that he was up. Three June outings in which he allowed three runs each blew up his ERA. The Expos recalled him on five separate occasions, giving him little time to settle down; as the year went on, however, Mota was far more effective. He has an excellent arm and has improved his previously poor mechanics and command. He needs to continue develop his changeup and slider in order to get strikeouts; if he does that, Mota has a chance to be a quality setup reliever. Mike Johnson, middle reliever/spot starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 6.97 4 4 1 2 0 21 26 4 9 16 .310 .915 Prorated Mon 6.97 19 19 5 10 0 100 126 19 44 78 .310 .915 Actual Mon 6.39 41 13 5 6 0 101 107 18 53 70 .269 .821Only in 1999 has Johnson been allowed to spend a full season at one level in the high minors, getting the experience he so desperately needs. He didn't do the job that year at Ottawa (6-12, 5.38), and had it not been for Expos' pitchers' lack of health in 2000, Johnson would have been back at Triple-A again. However, beginning on May 3, Johnson joined the Expos, working as both in the rotation and in middle relief. His starting ERA was 7.17, and he notched a 5.31 mark in relief. He throws a lot of pitches, going deep into counts and putting too many on base via walks. In addition, Johnson makes too many mistakes with his slider and, as a result, is taken deep far too often. If the Expos really like Johnson as much as they claim, they'll give him another full season at Ottawa to get his game together. Jeremy Powell, middle reliever/spot starter, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 5.56 4 4 1 2 0 23 26 3 10 14 .289 .824 Prorated Mon 5.56 5 5 1 2 0 26 30 3 12 16 .289 .824 Actual Mon 7.96 11 4 0 3 0 26 35 6 9 19 .321 .966Powell made four starts for the Expos in which he was 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA, allowing five homers in 17 frames. He pitched as a reliever in September and wasn't much better. At Triple-A Powell had a 5-13 record and a 6.91 ERA. He was outrighted after the season ended and is in camp with San Diego. Matt Blank, middle reliever, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.76 40 0 3 4 0 55 62 8 18 41 .286 .804 Prorated Mon 3.76 11 0 1 1 0 14 16 2 5 11 .286 .804 Actual Mon 5.14 13 0 0 1 0 14 12 1 5 4 .226 .621Blank, a promising pitcher, was converted to relief in 2000 after having spent his first three pro seasons as a starter. A finesse lefty who changes speeds, he suffered a fractured forearm in May and didn't pitch again. His type of pitcher would normally be more successful in a starting role, and the Expos will have vacancies in their rotation. Of course, having traded Steve Kline, the Expos also have a vacancy for a southpaw in their bullpen, but they are counting on Graeme Lloyd to make a comeback. Yovanny Lara, middle reliever, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Mon 6.35 6 0 0 0 0 6 5 0 8 3 .250 .798Lara did not pitch after July 15 due to triceps and shoulder injuries. His six games with Montreal were his first appearances above Double-A. Steve Kline, lefty setup/closer, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.54 53 0 3 2 0 56 51 6 24 51 .244 .712 Prorated Mon 3.54 77 0 4 3 0 82 74 9 35 74 .244 .712 Actual Mon 3.50 83 0 1 5 14 82 88 8 27 64 .278 .761Kline, a quality setup pitcher, paced the NL in appearances. He also led Montreal in saves, taking over closing duties in June. While Kline had a fine season, he did show some troublesome tendencies. A decision to nibble less and throw more strikes meant that while Kline cut down on his walks but also gave up more hits. Kline also slumped against right-handed batters, who hit .297 with power and walks (828 OPS). Traded to the Cardinals for 2001, Kline will address St. Louis' organization-wide lack of lefty relief. Scott Forster, lefty setup, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Actual Mon 7.88 42 0 0 1 0 32 28 5 25 23 .230 .804The Expos purchased the lefty's contract on June 17. A former starter with career-long command problems, Forster didn't do the job against lefty hitters (.289, three homers in 45 at-bats) but was poison on righties (.195 in 77 at-bats). Unwanted by the Expos, he has migrated to the Mets. Graeme Lloyd, lefty setup, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.43 70 0 4 3 1 76 69 10 22 50 .243 .712Lloyd missed the entire season because of a torn left labrum and rotator cuff. He underwent surgery on May 5, but was back rehabbing with the club by August. After trading Steve Kline, Montreal needs the stork-like lefty to return to his previous form. Spring training should tell a lot about his progress. Scott Strickland, setup man, age 24 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 4.04 53 0 4 4 0 71 73 8 37 82 .266 .770 Prorated Mon 4.04 33 0 3 3 0 45 46 5 23 52 .266 .770 Actual Mon 3.00 49 0 4 3 9 48 38 3 16 48 .215 .613Strickland, who missed two months during the season with tendinitis in his right shoulder, converted nine saves in 12 chances after taking over late-inning duties in mid-July. He made the staff out of spring training as a middle reliever, but injuries to other pitchers pushed Strickland to the fore. Lefties hit .290 against him, but Strickland was murder on righties (.174, one home run). In September, he made13 scoreless appearances (12 innings), converting five saves. He has become more confident in his pitches and challenged hitters more with his fastball last season. Anthony Telford, setup man, age 34 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 3.98 40 0 3 3 0 54 59 5 23 37 .280 .756 Prorated Mon 3.98 55 0 4 4 0 75 81 7 32 51 .280 .756 Actual Mon 3.79 64 0 5 4 3 78 76 10 23 68 .257 .739A steady middle reliever, Telford had another quiet but effective season. He finished second on the staff in appearances despite missing more than five weeks with shoulder problems. Telford underwent arthroscopic surgery (the eighth Expos' player to have the process) to clean out the shoulder in late September but is expected back in the bullpen this spring. While Montreal was basically a neutral park last year, Telford was far more effective on the road; his road ERA was just 3.05, while at home it shot up to an atypical 4.50. While one could say that this is due to Telford's tendency to get ground balls, and that Montreal's turf field hurts him, Telford's career home ERA is actually a little lower. Ugueth Urbina, closer, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mon 2.48 70 0 5 5 42 76 56 6 35 97 .204 .611 Prorated Mon 2.48 12 0 1 1 7 13 10 1 6 17 .204 .611 Actual Mon 4.05 13 0 0 1 8 13 11 1 5 22 .224 .643U.U.U. had two separate surgeries during the 2000 season to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow. The Expos desperately need him for 2001, and all accounts are that his rehabilitation has gone smoothly. In 1999, Urbina was again one of the best in the game, and his return to dominance is crucial if Montreal wants to contend for anything -- whether or not the club uses him as trade bait. Outlook It is inconceivable that the 2001 Expos will lose 1450 player-games to injury as their predecessors did in 2000. That alone is reason for suspending skepticism about the team's immediate future. Vladimir Guerrero, Jose Vidro (recently signed to a new, four-year deal), and Javier Vazquez give reason for optimism. Adding power-hitting third sacker Fernando Tatis could give Expos' fans a relatively sunny disposition if closer Ugueth Urbina and starters Pavano and Armas can remain healthy and effective for a full season. Trading veteran starter Dustin Hermanson and redoubtable reliever Steve Kline for Tatis and the promising but largely untested Britt Reames was certainly a gamble, but it's the kind of risk small-revenue teams like Montreal have to take. Avoiding injuries to key players and generating enough power from the bats of Guererro, Vidro, Tatis, and Stevens are necessary conditions for the Expos to contend for an NL Wild Card berth in 2001. If all of this happens, substantial improvement from several young pitchers as well as catcher Michael Barrett and outfielders Milton Bradley and Peter Bergeron could remind Quebecers of the heady days of 1994. Oui, this optimistic scenario may be a stretch, but what else do baseball fans in Montreal have to look forward to? Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved.  Send this story to a friend | Diamond Mind reports | ||||