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| Wednesday, February 28 | |||||
| Season in review: Philadelphia Phillies Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the Philadelphia Phillies did in the 2000 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 800 708 Runs allowed 778 830 Run Margin +22 -122 Wins 83 65 Pythagorean wins 83 68 Placement 3rd 5thThe year 2000 turned out completely differently for the Phillies than what had been forecast by many pundits who saw them as a team on the rise. Instead of continuing the modest improvement that the club had seen since its nadir in 1996, Phillies' fans endured a complete collapse that saw their hometown nine finish tied for the worst record in baseball. How bad were things at the Vet last year? The 2000 season was so bad that Philadelphia finished three games worse than it did in '97--thus ingloriously ending the rebuilding effort launched by former GM Lee Thomas and rookie manager Terry Francona four overly-optimistic years ago. The last-place finish cost Francona his job. His replacement is Larry Bowa, one of the signature players from the beloved 1970s and 1980s Phillies. Bowa was an unmitigated disaster in his first stint as a big-league manager in the late 1980s in San Diego. However, in a desperate attempt to rekindle some excitement among the team's dwindling fan base, one of the heroes of the franchise's only World Championship squad was brought back to kick ass and take names. Whether Bowa's (fire)brand of leadership will prove any more effective in the long run than Francona's friendly, low-key style is anyone's guess. Key position players The Phightin' Phils were definitely offensive to their fans in 2000, if not to opposing pitchers. Philadelphia's hitters plated a pathetic 708 runs, worst in the majors and almost a hundred below projections. The team's offense was above the NL average at only three positions, third base and right field being the obvious. Obviously, the list of suspects in the 2000 Philadelphia lineup was longer than the FBI's Most Wanted list. (The only other position at which the Phils outhit the league? Pitcher!) Mike Lieberthal, c, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 492 142 30 2 26 77 88 9 43 4 74 0 1 .289 .352 .516 .868 89 Prorated Phi 390 113 24 2 21 61 70 7 34 3 59 0 1 .289 .352 .516 .868 71 Actual Phi 389 108 30 0 15 55 71 6 40 3 53 2 0 .278 .352 .470 .822 64Lieberthal is a quality offensive and defensive player when he is healthy. Unfortunately, fitness is a concern. After missing 75 games in 1998, he was disabled twice last year, missing five weeks with a sprained ankle and a bone spur in his throwing elbow. He slumped against righties in 2000 (.259, 11 HR in 309 at-bats), which explains his decline; Lieberthal did fine with southpaws (.350 in 80 at-bats). Behind the dish Lieberthal tossed out 35 percent of enemy base thieves, an above-average total. Phillies pitchers like throwing to him; he is agile and presents a good target. Gary Bennett, c, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 93 23 4 0 2 9 14 1 7 0 13 0 0 .247 .304 .355 .659 9 Prorated Phi 81 20 3 0 2 8 12 1 6 0 11 0 0 .247 .304 .355 .659 8 Actual Phi 74 18 5 0 2 8 5 2 13 0 15 0 0 .243 .371 .392 .763 12Bennett is a reasonable backup receiver who has substantially improved his hitting ability. He threw out six of 25 base stealers last year and picked another off first. Tom Prince, c, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 67 14 3 0 1 9 7 1 6 0 14 0 0 .209 .284 .299 .582 6 Prorated Phi 125 26 6 0 2 17 13 2 11 0 26 0 0 .209 .284 .299 .582 11 Actual Phi 122 29 9 0 2 14 16 2 13 0 31 1 0 .238 .321 .361 .682 14It seems that Prince has been around forever; he is a consistent but unspectacular catch-and-throw guy. He has inked a deal with the Twins for 2001 and should give some stability to a young catching corps. Rico Brogna, 1b, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 604 159 34 3 19 82 96 1 52 7 121 8 4 .263 .320 .424 .744 80 Prorated Phi 127 33 7 1 4 17 20 0 11 1 25 2 1 .263 .320 .424 .744 17 Actual Phi 129 32 14 0 1 12 13 2 7 1 28 1 0 .248 .295 .380 .675 14 Prorated Bos 55 14 3 0 2 7 9 0 5 1 11 1 0 .263 .320 .424 .744 7 Actual Bos 56 11 3 0 1 8 8 0 3 0 13 0 0 .196 .237 .304 .541 4 Prorated Tot 182 48 10 1 6 25 29 0 16 2 36 2 1 .263 .320 .424 .744 24 Actual Tot 185 43 17 0 2 20 21 2 10 1 41 1 0 .232 .278 .357 .635 18Even at his best, Brogna's offense was just barely good enough to help him survive as a regular at a power position. His precipitous decline was a surprise only in its suddenness. The popular Brogna slumped badly last year in Philly, lost his job, and was waived to Boston, where he was even less effective. After the season, Atlanta signed him to replace Andres Galarraga (who is now with Texas) at first base. Pat Burrell, 1b/lf, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 98 28 6 1 5 17 18 0 14 1 22 1 1 .286 .375 .520 .895 19 Prorated Phi 415 119 25 4 21 72 76 0 59 4 93 4 4 .286 .375 .520 .895 79 Actual Phi 408 106 27 1 18 57 79 1 63 2 139 0 0 .260 .359 .463 .822 72While Burrell didn't play up to expectations in his rookie season, he did show promise. Once the Phillies called him up from Triple-A in late May, it was inevitable that Burrell would get the majority of the playing time at first base rather than Rico Brogna. However, Burrell was impatient at bat and had more trouble making contact than was anticipated, especially on breaking balls. A more contact-oriented approach will serve him well in the future. If Burrell remains at first base, he should develop into a good enough fielder to help the team. After Travis Lee was acquired, though, Burrell spent an unfortunate 48 games in left field, showing poor range and hands. It is long past the time that the organization make up its mind where Pat "The Bat" will play. Though he will never have a gilded glove at any position, moving him from third base to first base to left field to first base to left field, as the Phillies have done since they drafted him, is risking retarding his development as a hitter. If the team has any hope of developing into a bona fide contender, it absolutely must have a bona fide bopper in the middle of the lineup. Such power bats are not easy to find, and Burrell is possibly the biggest non-pitching piece of the puzzle left to fit into the Phillies' projected lineup. While other gaping holes obviously remain to be filled on the team, a middle of the order featuring Bobby Abreu, Scott Rolen, and a 35-40-HR Burrell could well be the foundation of a renaissance in South Philly. Travis Lee, 1b/lf, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Ari 387 102 15 1 15 59 56 1 58 4 72 10 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 62 Prorated Ari 216 57 8 1 8 33 31 1 32 2 40 6 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 35 Actual Ari 224 52 13 0 8 34 40 0 25 1 46 5 1 .232 .308 .397 .705 28 Prorated Phi 193 51 7 0 7 29 28 0 29 2 36 5 0 .264 .360 .424 .784 31 Actual Phi 180 43 11 1 1 19 14 2 40 0 33 3 0 .239 .381 .328 .709 26 Prorated Tot 410 108 16 1 16 62 59 1 61 4 76 11 1 .264 .360 .424 .784 65 Actual Tot 404 95 24 1 9 53 54 2 65 1 79 8 1 .235 .342 .366 .709 54Lee washed out with Arizona, not only due to his performance, but also reportedly due to a lackadaisical attitude. Traded to Philadelphia in late July, he hit very poorly yet pushed Pat Burrell back into left field. While Lee is a good defensive first baseman with some speed, he has not shown that he can turn his physical gifts into production. A positive sign for 2001 is that Lee spent the winter working on hitting with veteran coach/instructor Jim Lefebvre in order to get his game back on track. While dedicated instruction can't hurt Lee, there is obviously more going on here than a simple problem hitting the curve ball. Brian Hunter, 1b/lf/rf, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Atl 65 15 4 0 2 9 10 1 7 0 12 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 8 Prorated Atl 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 0 Actual Atl 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .500 .500 2.000 2.500 2 Prorated Phi 137 32 8 0 4 19 21 2 15 0 25 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 17 Actual Phi 138 29 5 0 7 13 22 0 20 1 39 0 1 .210 .310 .399 .709 17 Prorated Tot 139 32 9 0 4 19 21 2 15 0 26 0 0 .231 .311 .385 .695 17 Actual Tot 140 30 5 0 8 14 23 0 20 1 39 0 1 .214 .313 .421 .734 19The Phillies claimed the veteran off waivers from the Braves on April 21. Filling in at first and pinch-hitting nearly 50 times, Hunter did what was expected of him -- hit for a low average with some pop. He has legitimate home-run power and understands his role, but must do better against lefties (.217 in 2000). Hunter can stick around if he doesn't lose more mobility; he is heavier than he once was, but showed surprisingly good range at first base for the second year in a row. Mickey Morandini, 2b, age 34 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 490 131 21 3 6 71 43 6 55 2 70 8 4 .267 .347 .359 .706 64 Prorated Phi 299 80 13 2 4 43 26 4 34 1 43 5 2 .267 .347 .359 .706 39 Actual Phi 302 76 13 3 0 31 22 4 29 1 54 5 2 .252 .324 .315 .639 31 Prorated Tor 102 27 4 1 1 15 9 1 11 0 15 2 1 .267 .347 .359 .706 13 Actual Tor 107 29 2 1 0 10 7 0 7 0 23 1 0 .271 .316 .308 .624 11 Prorated Tot 401 107 17 2 5 58 35 5 45 2 57 7 3 .267 .347 .359 .706 52 Actual Tot 409 105 15 4 0 41 29 4 36 1 77 6 2 .257 .322 .313 .635 41When the Phillies decided that Marlon Anderson wasn't their guy at second, they gave the job to Morandini, who showed conclusively that both his offensive and defensive skills had eroded well past the point of usefulness. If Morandini could play other positions, he might have some value as a utility player, but he can only play 2B and 11-pitcher big-league rosters no longer have any room for one-position reserves who can't hit. The Blue Jays acquired him on August 6. Kevin Jordan, 2b/3b/1b, age 30 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 70 20 4 0 1 8 10 1 4 0 8 0 0 .286 .333 .386 .719 9 Prorated Phi 334 95 19 0 5 38 48 5 19 0 38 0 0 .286 .333 .386 .719 41 Actual Phi 337 74 16 2 5 30 36 1 17 0 41 0 1 .220 .257 .323 .580 26The Phillies' inability to find a regular second baseman, and the injury to Scott Rolen, meant that Jordan played often in 2000. After three years of hitting .266-.285 with a bit of power, however, Jordan slumped. His strikeout and walk numbers, which were never that good anyway, got worse, and he showed below-par range at both second and third base. Jordan remains somewhat valuable as a multi-position reserve, but he will hurt the team like he did in 2001 if he is overexposed again. Marlon Anderson, 2b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 71 19 4 1 1 9 8 0 3 0 9 2 1 .268 .297 .394 .692 8 Prorated Phi 165 44 9 2 2 21 19 0 7 0 21 5 2 .268 .297 .394 .692 19 Actual Phi 162 37 8 1 1 10 15 0 12 0 22 2 2 .228 .282 .309 .590 13Following a mediocre 1999 rookie season, Anderson believed that the second base was his last spring. Informed that he would have to actually win the job, Anderson hit .364 in spring training but was still optioned back to Triple-A due to his attytood (that's the way it's pronounced in South Philadelphia) and to his shaky fielding. He hit .305 in 103 games at Scranton, but performed poorly when recalled to Philadelphia on August 6. Hitting badly and unwilling or unable -- or both -- to take the necessary walks to prosper as a leadoff hitter, Anderson couldn't use his speed, one of his key tools, to any advantage. Defensively, Anderson has a good reputation and decent hands, but showed sub-par range last season. Let's see ... a weak bat, below-average defense, and a questionable attitude...and this guy was considered one of the Phillies' best prospects? David Newhan, 2b, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SD 70 15 3 0 2 9 7 0 5 0 15 3 1 .214 .267 .343 .610 6 Prorated SD 24 5 1 0 1 3 2 0 2 0 5 1 0 .214 .267 .343 .610 2 Actual SD 20 3 1 0 1 5 2 0 6 1 7 0 0 .150 .346 .350 .696 3 Prorated Phi 18 4 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 0 4 1 0 .214 .267 .343 .610 2 Actual Phi 17 3 0 0 0 3 0 0 2 0 6 0 0 .176 .263 .176 .440 1 Prorated Tot 42 9 2 0 1 5 4 0 3 0 9 2 1 .214 .267 .343 .610 4 Actual Tot 37 6 1 0 1 8 2 0 8 1 13 0 0 .162 .311 .270 .581 3The son of Los Angeles sportswriter Ross Newhan got in some playing time in 2000 without distinguishing himself. He came over to the Phillies in an August trade for Desi Relaford. Newhan is a utiltity player on a club packed to overflowing with utility guys. Scott Rolen, 3b, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 552 158 38 2 31 106 103 7 83 3 125 14 4 .286 .383 .531 .914 118 Prorated Phi 461 132 32 2 26 88 86 6 69 3 104 12 3 .286 .383 .531 .914 98 Actual Phi 483 144 32 6 26 88 89 5 51 9 99 8 1 .298 .370 .551 .920 102Back, ankle, and wrist injuries held down his playing time in 2000, but it was still a good season for "The Franchise." Rolen walked less than expected, but also cut his strikeouts, hit for power, showed typical baserunning smarts, and did an excellent job at third base. Rolen has above-average hands and great mobility at the hot corner and is the game's best at that position. Still, there's an odd feeling that something is missing. One would think that a player with such talent, instinct, and reflexes would be better. There is continued talk that Rolen is very unhappy playing for such a bad team, and that his knees and back suffer tremendously from the poor turf at Veterans Stadium (though he did bat .327 at home last year). The club will have a new, softer NeXturf surface in 2001, which should help Rolen stay healthier and happier. However, if the rest of the team isn't much better, Rolen might decide to take the free-agent route after 2002 to a competitive franchise rather than sign another long-term deal with a rudderless franchise. Desi Relaford, ss, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 529 130 28 4 7 67 57 7 44 3 83 13 7 .246 .310 .353 .663 59 Prorated Phi 279 69 15 2 4 35 30 4 23 2 44 7 4 .246 .310 .353 .663 31 Actual Phi 253 56 12 3 3 29 30 9 48 7 45 5 0 .221 .363 .328 .691 34 Prorated SD 168 41 9 1 2 21 18 2 14 1 26 4 2 .246 .310 .353 .663 19 Actual SD 157 32 2 0 2 26 16 3 27 0 26 8 0 .204 .330 .255 .585 17 Prorated Tot 447 110 24 3 6 57 48 6 37 3 70 11 6 .246 .310 .353 .663 50 Actual Tot 410 88 14 3 5 55 46 12 75 7 71 13 0 .215 .351 .300 .651 50The Phillies gave Relaford every opportunity to keep the job at shortstop; the club had few options and wanted a homegrown player to succeed. Unfortunately, Relaford was so bad that he was dealt to the Padres on August 4. He's in camp with the Mets this spring. Alex Arias, ss/3b/2b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 71 21 4 0 1 9 10 1 7 1 7 0 0 .296 .367 .394 .761 10 Prorated Phi 162 48 9 0 2 21 23 2 16 2 16 0 0 .296 .367 .394 .761 23 Actual Phi 155 29 9 0 2 17 15 3 16 2 28 1 0 .187 .271 .284 .555 14Arias batted just .162 against right-handers in 105 at-bats after bringing a .286 career mark against them into 2000. His inability to make consistent contact was also a danger sign; Arias' season began with a 4-for-43 slump and didn't get much better. Signed by the Padres for 2001, he remains a good pinch-hitter (.321 lifetime average, .308 last year). Tomas Perez, ss, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 70 15 3 0 0 6 6 0 4 0 11 0 1 .214 .257 .257 .514 4 Prorated Phi 142 30 6 0 0 12 12 0 8 0 22 0 2 .214 .257 .257 .514 9 Actual Phi 140 31 7 1 1 17 13 0 11 2 30 1 1 .221 .278 .307 .585 12When Desi Relaford flamed out, Perez got some at-bats at shortstop but couldn't hold the job. Jimmy Rollins, ss, age 21 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 69 17 3 1 1 9 6 0 5 0 6 3 1 .246 .297 .362 .660 8 Prorated Phi 51 12 2 1 1 7 4 0 4 0 4 2 1 .246 .297 .362 .660 6 Actual Phi 53 17 1 1 0 5 5 0 2 0 7 3 0 .321 .345 .377 .723 8The organization's best position-playing prospect may not be ready for everyday duty, but the Phils might well give him the job anyway. Rollins is a good contact hitter with line-drive power and speed, but he is still very young and has experienced some defensive struggles. The fear is that the Phils may, through their desperation, unintentionally put Rollins in a position to fail given their lack of options at short. Given the paucity of legitimate prospects in their organization, the club needs to place priority on Rollins' development above their desire to fill an embarrassing hole in their infield. Ron Gant, lf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 525 135 27 3 24 98 83 2 74 1 117 11 2 .257 .350 .457 .807 90 Prorated Phi 334 86 17 2 15 62 53 1 47 1 75 7 1 .257 .350 .457 .807 57 Actual Phi 343 87 16 2 20 54 38 1 36 1 73 5 4 .254 .324 .487 .811 53 Prorated Ana 90 23 5 1 4 17 14 0 13 0 20 2 0 .257 .350 .457 .807 15 Actual Ana 82 19 3 1 6 15 16 0 20 0 18 1 2 .232 .379 .512 .891 17 Prorated Tot 424 109 22 2 19 79 67 2 60 1 94 9 2 .257 .350 .457 .807 72 Actual Tot 425 106 19 3 26 69 54 1 56 1 91 6 6 .249 .335 .492 .827 71Gant did what the Phillies expected of him, which was to hit home runs. Traded to Anaheim for Kent Bottenfield on July 30, he continued to hit with power, though not nearly enough given his low average and on-base. Despite his reputation defensively, his range in left has been surprisingly good the past two years. He was signed by Colorado during the winter. Kevin Sefcik, lf/cf/rf, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 77 23 5 1 1 11 6 1 10 0 10 2 1 .299 .386 .429 .815 13 Prorated Phi 148 44 10 2 2 21 12 2 19 0 19 4 2 .299 .386 .429 .815 26 Actual Phi 153 36 6 2 0 15 10 2 13 0 19 4 2 .235 .300 .301 .601 14Sefcik didn't hit well last year, largely because he struggled uncharacteristically in the second half (.216). The gritty and versatile Sefcik started at all three outfield positions and pinch-hit 56 times. Strangely, for a guy who came up as a shortstop, he didn't see action even once at any infield position in 2000; the Phillies concluded several years ago that he wasn't useful as a utility infielder. Sefcik is in spring training with the Rockies. Rob Ducey, lf/rf/cf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 66 17 5 1 2 9 8 1 8 0 17 1 1 .258 .347 .455 .801 11 Prorated Phi 161 41 12 2 5 22 20 2 20 0 41 2 2 .258 .347 .455 .801 26 Actual Phi 152 30 4 1 6 24 25 0 29 1 47 1 0 .197 .322 .355 .678 20 Prorated Tor 13 3 1 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 .258 .347 .455 .801 2 Actual Tor 13 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 .154 .267 .231 .497 1 Prorated Tot 174 45 13 3 5 24 21 3 21 0 45 3 3 .258 .347 .455 .801 28 Actual Tot 165 32 5 1 6 26 26 0 31 1 49 1 0 .194 .318 .345 .664 21Seasons like Ducey's don't look good on the resume of a 35-year-old bench player. He was traded to Toronto on July 26 and then sent back to Philly two weeks later in the Morandini trade. Doug Glanville, cf, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 631 195 35 5 11 105 66 6 46 1 76 25 5 .309 .360 .433 .793 102 Prorated Phi 628 194 35 5 11 105 66 6 46 1 76 25 5 .309 .360 .433 .793 102 Actual Phi 637 175 27 6 8 89 52 2 31 1 76 31 8 .275 .307 .374 .681 75After a very good, and very surprising, 1999 performance, Glanville came back to earth in 2000. Only an acceptable leadoff hitter if he clears the .300 mark, Glanville took alarmingly few walks last season and hit even worse than usual against southpaws, managing just a .237 average and a pathetic .587 OPS (he is always much more productive against right-handers). Glanville's speed is still his best asset. He is a very good base stealer and has been a strong performer in center field, though 2000 was far from his best year defensively. Glanville made just four errors in 2000 and threw out nine runners. Bobby Abreu, rf, age 26 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection Phi 564 175 35 10 17 100 87 2 94 10 120 22 9 .310 .408 .498 .906 120 Prorated Phi 577 179 36 10 17 102 89 2 96 10 123 22 9 .310 .408 .498 .906 123 Actual Phi 576 182 42 10 25 103 79 1 100 9 116 28 8 .316 .416 .554 .970 139Enjoying his third consecutive .300+ season and continuing to add power and speed to his game, Abreu ranked among the NL's top ten in several key categories (doubles, walks, triples, OBP, and outfield assists). While Abreu slumped against southpaws in 2000, he improved dramatically against right-handers (1.061 OPS) and played an excellent right field, showing excellent range and a strong and accurate arm. While Scott Rolen remains a fan favorite and an All-Star caliber performer, Bob Abreu is now clearly the best player on the Phillies. Key pitchers Perhaps because preseason expectations for the mound corps were lower than for the position players, their 11th-place finish in the NL (52 runs worse than projected) wasn't such a disappointment. The front end of the rotation, however, was a complete bust, as malcontent ace Curt Schilling pitched well enough but then forced the team to trade him to Arizona. No. 2 starter Andy Ashby, the team's most heralded free-agent acquisition in recent years, also forced the team to trade him, though he didn't have the courtesy to pitch decently before leaving town. After the Phils' one-two punch fizzled, it didn't get a lot better. Paul Byrd, a surprise All-Star in 1999, gamely pitched until his right arm nearly fell off. Omar Daal, who came aboard the sinking ship in the Schilling trade, pitched so badly that he almost became the first pitcher in eons to lose 20 games. Only Bruce Chen, acquired for Ashby, and Robert Person managed to truly pitch well in red pinstripes, though sophomore Randy Wolf's progress was encouraging. The bullpen was a nightmare, with Jeff Brantley creating turmoil in the clubhouse by demanding to close games even though his fastball couldn't break a pane of Hollywood special-effects glass. Former first-round pick Wayne Gomes proved pretty conclusively that he will never be a closer. Philadelphia was so desperate for relief that it even gave untested Vicente Padilla, a rookie of uncertain age with a big heater, a chance to prove himself in the ninth innings. Curt Schilling, starter, age 33 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS rojection Phi 3.64 26 26 13 8 0 190 175 23 51 183 .245 .703 Prorated Phi 3.64 16 16 8 5 0 116 106 14 31 111 .245 .703 Actual Phi 3.91 16 16 6 6 0 113 110 17 32 96 .253 .737 Prorated Ari 3.64 13 13 6 4 0 95 87 11 25 91 .245 .703 Actual Ari 3.69 13 13 5 6 0 98 94 10 13 72 .257 .679 Prorated Tot 3.64 29 29 14 9 0 210 193 25 56 202 .245 .703 Actual Tot 3.81 29 29 11 12 0 210 204 27 45 168 .255 .711Dealt to the Diamondbacks on July 26, Schilling was at his Jekyll/Hyde best in 2000. Recovering from December 1999 shoulder surgery, Schilling started the season slowly and struggled before hitting his stride. After doing so, he used his potential trade value as a club to beat the team's front office into submission and grant him his wish to be traded to a contender. Despite his repeated denials, Schilling had been desperate to get out of Philadelphia for several years; if the D-backs retrench as rumored, his unhappy attitude may resurface in the desert despite his lucrative new contract. Andy Ashby, starter, age 32 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 4.45 32 32 12 12 0 212 225 27 59 133 .275 .765 Prorated Phi 4.45 16 16 6 6 0 108 114 14 30 68 .275 .765 Actual Phi 5.68 16 16 4 7 0 101 113 17 38 51 .288 .831 Prorated Atl 4.45 15 15 6 6 0 98 103 12 27 61 .275 .765 Actual Atl 4.13 15 15 8 6 0 98 103 12 23 55 .271 .743 Prorated Tot 4.45 31 31 12 12 0 205 218 26 57 129 .275 .765 Actual Tot 4.92 31 31 12 13 0 199 216 29 61 106 .280 .788Ashby's poor performance was one of the biggest disappointments of the Phillies' terrible season. They were lucky to dump him on Atlanta for Bruce Chen and Jimmy Osting on July 12. While Ashby pitched better after leaving Philly, his days as a top-flight starter are now over. He was signed by the Dodgers during the winter. Paul Byrd, starter, age 29 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 4.57 32 32 12 12 0 209 210 31 71 123 .263 .775 Prorated Phi 4.57 13 13 5 5 0 86 87 13 29 51 .263 .775 Actual Phi 6.51 17 15 2 9 0 83 89 17 35 53 .271 .874It is unfair to say that his gaudy 2000 ERA represents Byrd's true level of ability: his hit, walk, and home run numbers weren't really all that different from his 1999 performance. After two terrible starts (13 ER in five innings), he actually pitched some good games. Unfortunately, he ended up disabled on July 27 with a torn labrum in his right shoulder, underwent surgery, and missed the rest of the season. Philadelphia re-signed him to a Triple-A deal in January. He could still be an acceptable fifth starter if he can recover his arm strength. Randy Wolf, starter, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.41 32 32 10 12 0 185 207 29 83 155 .283 .830 Prorated Phi 5.41 34 34 11 13 0 197 221 31 89 166 .283 .830 Actual Phi 4.36 32 32 11 9 0 206 210 25 83 160 .269 .789Wolf led the team in several categories including wins, starts, and innings. While Wolf often struggled with location, especially against right-handers, he also developed an above-average changeup that got him plenty of strikeouts. He needs to continue to develop his cutter to help him get out righties, who piled up 47 doubles, 24 homers, and an .812 OPS. A refinement in control of his curve and two-seam fastball could make Wolf an above-average starter, but it won't happen until he gets more balls on the ground rather than in the air. With his youth and make-up, however, he should continue to improve. Robert Person, starter, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.03 27 27 8 10 0 157 155 27 81 134 .257 .813 Prorated Phi 5.03 29 29 8 11 0 167 164 29 86 142 .257 .813 Actual Phi 3.63 28 28 9 7 0 173 144 13 95 164 .229 .704Building on the success he enjoyed with the Phillies in '99, Person finished ninth in the NL in ERA. He set career highs in several categories despite missing more than a month with a sore shoulder. A huge improvement against left-handers (.178 average, .590 OPS) was the main reason for Person's increased effectiveness. He still struggles to get his pitches over the plate, and probably always will, but since Person is a hard thrower, his wildness sometimes helps him keep batters off balance. While he'll never be a rotation anchor due to a lack of stamina, Person is a valuable starter due to his mix of pitches, poise, and sometimes overpowering stuff. Bruce Chen, starter, age 23 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Atl 4.61 27 27 8 8 0 160 155 28 73 166 .253 .776 Prorated Atl 4.61 7 7 2 2 0 40 39 7 18 42 .253 .776 Actual Atl 2.50 22 0 4 0 0 40 35 4 19 32 .232 .715 Prorated Phi 4.61 15 15 4 4 0 87 85 15 40 91 .253 .776 Actual Phi 3.63 15 15 3 4 0 94 81 14 27 80 .232 .687 Prorated Tot 4.61 22 22 6 6 0 127 123 22 58 132 .253 .776 Actual Tot 3.29 37 15 7 4 0 134 116 18 46 112 .232 .696Chen couldn't work his way into the Braves' rotation, landing instead in an uncomfortable middle relief role. Liberated from the Braves in July, Chen was immediately pressed into service as a starter. The Phils kept him on pitch counts, since he hadn't started since the previous year, and Chen responded well to the challenge of rotation duty. A big plus was that his control was better than expected: Chen knows he cannot pitch high in the strike zone and has refined his game as such. Improvement with the cut fastball could help him get righties out more effectively and make him into a front-of-the-rotation starter; they slugged .418 against him last year. Omar Daal, starter, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 3.91 32 32 15 9 0 212 203 22 78 164 .254 .714 Prorated Ari 3.91 16 16 8 5 0 109 104 11 40 84 .254 .714 Actual Ari 7.22 20 16 2 10 0 96 127 17 42 45 .315 .904 Prorated Phi 3.91 11 11 5 3 0 74 71 8 27 58 .254 .714 Actual Phi 4.69 12 12 2 9 0 71 81 9 30 51 .290 .810 Prorated Tot 3.91 28 28 13 8 0 183 176 19 67 142 .254 .714 Actual Tot 6.14 32 28 4 19 0 167 208 26 72 96 .305 .866Daal's control deserted him last season, and he was hammered in Phoenix. While with the D-Backs, he allowed both lefties and righties to hit .315 with power. His command was especially off against right-handers, whom he had successfully walked a tightrope against in the past. Daal did pitch better after the July deal to Philadelphia, but oddly, in August, he was 1-5 with a 6.32 ERA despite fanning 30 and walking just 13 in his 36 innings. Then, in September, he both fanned and walked 14 in 30 innings but went 1-2 with just a 3.00 ERA. Obviously, there is excellent reason to believe that the league has caught up with Daal's deception-oriented game, but his September performance should be enough to get him another chance in the Phils' rotation as the season begins. What he will do with that is anyone's guess; he's young enough to rebound, but marginal enough to collapse completely. Kent Bottenfield, starter, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ana 4.54 32 32 12 12 0 204 209 22 89 146 .266 .763 Prorated Ana 4.54 20 20 8 8 0 130 133 14 57 93 .266 .763 Actual Ana 5.71 21 21 7 8 0 128 144 25 56 75 .285 .850 Prorated Phi 4.54 7 7 3 3 0 44 45 5 19 32 .266 .763 Actual Phi 4.50 8 8 1 2 0 44 41 5 21 31 .240 .711 Prorated Tot 4.54 27 27 10 10 0 174 178 19 76 125 .266 .763 Actual Tot 5.40 29 29 8 10 0 172 185 30 77 106 .274 .815With the Angels, Bottenfield had unexpected trouble keeping the ball down, to which his huge home run total attests. He was far more effective with the Phillies after coming over in the Ron Gant deal July 30. However, he only pitched twice in September due to injury and has signed with the Astros for 2001. Bottenfield struggled against everyone in 2000; lefties hit .304 and had an .877 OPS, while righties clubbed 17 homers off him in just 324 at-bats. The Cardinals' acquisition of Jim Edmonds from Anaheim for Adam Kennedy and Bottenfield, a serviceable #4 starter and little more, was one of the biggest steals of the last 10 years. Cliff Politte, starter, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 7.16 11 0 1 1 0 16 21 3 8 13 .313 .919 Prorated Phi 7.16 36 0 3 3 0 53 68 10 26 42 .313 .919 Actual Phi 3.66 12 8 4 3 0 59 55 8 27 50 .248 .765Politte had two stints with the Phillies and pitched very well, improving control on all three of his pitches. He allowed lefties just a .224 average and one home run, but did allow right-handers to hit him hard (.831 OPS). More effective as a starter (3.24 ERA) than in relief, Politte will contend for a rotation job in spring training. Chris Brock, middle reliever/spot starter, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.77 6 6 2 3 0 34 41 5 14 24 .297 .847 Prorated Phi 5.77 16 16 5 8 0 89 106 13 36 62 .297 .847 Actual Phi 4.34 63 5 7 8 1 93 85 21 41 69 .239 .801While Brock isn't pretty to watch, he is useful due to his ability to work in different roles. After bombing out of the rotation in April, he settled into middle relief and was far more effective. Brock has only fair control of his two-seam fastball, which leads to plenty of homers. Unless he improves his location, Brock won't get back to starting (which he really wants to do). Vicente Padilla, middle reliever, age 22 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Ari 5.29 19 0 1 1 0 17 21 2 6 10 .309 .854 Prorated Ari 5.29 36 0 2 2 0 32 40 4 11 19 .309 .854 Actual Ari 2.31 27 0 2 1 0 35 32 0 10 30 .242 .582 Prorated Phi 5.29 37 0 2 2 0 33 41 4 12 19 .309 .854 Actual Phi 5.34 28 0 2 6 2 30 40 3 18 21 .328 .921 Prorated Tot 5.29 73 0 4 4 0 65 80 8 23 38 .309 .854 Actual Tot 3.72 55 0 4 7 2 65 72 3 28 51 .283 .747 On balance, Padilla had a very promising season. However, he was much more effective with Arizona in a protected role than as a setup pitcher and occasional closer with the Phillies. Following the July 26 trade to Philly, lefties ripped Padilla at a monstrous .429 clip in 49 at-bats. While he has a terrific sinking fastball and slider, the reported youngster (his real age is rumored to be several years older) must either cut his fastball or develop a change-up or splitter to get lefties out. Bryan Ward, middle reliever, age 28ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 6.23 13 0 1 1 0 17 21 3 7 14 .304 .856 Prorated Phi 6.23 13 0 1 1 0 18 21 3 7 14 .304 .856 Actual Phi 2.33 20 0 0 0 0 19 14 2 8 11 .206 .591 Prorated Ana 6.23 6 0 0 0 0 8 10 1 3 6 .304 .856 Actual Ana 5.63 7 0 0 0 0 8 8 1 2 3 .235 .660 Prorated Tot 6.23 19 0 1 1 0 26 31 4 10 21 .304 .856 Actual Tot 3.29 27 0 0 0 0 27 22 3 10 14 .216 .614Outrighted to Triple-A on July 31, Ward ended up with Anaheim but did not distinguish himself. He actually pitched well for the Phillies but lost out in a roster squeeze after the Curt Schilling deal. Scott Aldred, middle reliever, age 32 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 5.52 30 0 1 2 0 29 37 4 13 19 .311 .876 Prorated Phi 5.52 21 0 1 1 0 21 26 3 9 13 .311 .876 Actual Phi 5.75 23 0 1 3 0 20 23 3 10 21 .284 .794Disabled on June 7 with a torn left labrum, he did not pitch again. Before the injury, he allowed lefties to bat .313 in 32 at-bats. Aldred has since signed with Cleveland. Jason Boyd, middle reliever, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Mil 4.96 11 0 1 1 0 16 19 3 9 12 .292 .905 Prorated Phi 4.96 23 0 2 2 0 34 40 6 19 25 .292 .905 Actual Phi 6.55 30 0 0 1 0 34 39 2 24 32 .293 .856The hard-throwing Boyd was disabled for the first month with a sore shoulder. He pitched well in May, then was racked in a game on June 4 and broke a bone in his hand punching the dugout bench in frustration. Boyd was always a long-shot and was not successful when he returned. Ed Vosberg, middle reliever, age 38 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Col 5.51 19 0 1 1 0 16 22 2 7 15 .328 .902 Prorated Phi 5.51 27 0 1 1 0 23 31 3 10 21 .328 .902 Actual Phi 4.13 31 0 1 1 0 24 21 4 18 23 .241 .797The Phillies acquired Vosberg from the Rockies' organization in late June. He pitched better than usual against right-handers, but struggled more than usual with lefties. He could hang around in the one-out southpaw role. Wayne Gomes, setup man, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.86 53 0 4 6 0 72 71 6 40 55 .261 .733 Prorated Phi 3.86 54 0 4 6 0 74 72 6 41 56 .261 .733 Actual Phi 4.40 65 0 4 6 7 74 72 6 35 49 .262 .743For several years, the Phillies have hoped that Gomes would evolve into a power closer. It hasn't happened; Gomes remains plagued by control troubles. The former first-round pick began 2000 as the closer, but lost the job by May. Lefties hit .306 against him, and Gomes walked too many hitters on both sides of the dish. When he falls behind in the count, Gomes can't use his deceptive hard curve to get strikeouts; he has to use his slower one, and it gets hit a little too hard a little too often. The most important pitch for him to throw is strike one. Jeff Brantley, closer, age 36 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 3.96 70 0 4 6 2 73 65 13 36 68 .239 .759 Prorated Phi 3.96 57 0 3 5 2 59 53 11 29 55 .239 .759 Actual Phi 5.86 55 0 2 7 23 55 64 12 29 57 .288 .864Walking a tightrope with a mid-80s (and sometimes even slower!) fastball and a good split-finger pitch, Brantley saved 23 games in 28 chances, converting his first 13. He pitched very, very poorly on the road (0-4, 9.45 ERA, 47 baserunners in 20 innings) but far better at home (3.82 ERA, 42 Ks in 35 innings). The Phillies would much rather have a healthier and harder-throwing closer, which explains their decision to sign Jose Mesa and Ricky Bottalico for 2001. Brantley has signed with the Rangers for 2001 and will endeavor to become part of the committee that could replace John Wetteland. Mike Jackson, closer, age 35 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Phi 2.55 70 0 5 4 38 78 60 8 27 67 .214 .627Jackson missed the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery in May and has signed with Houston for 2001. Signing a guy with arm problems -- especially after he flunked his physical exam with St. Louis -- was a big risk, and the Phils predictably ended up with the short end of the stick. Outlook Forecast for baseball fans for 2001 and 2002 for the Philadelphia area: Look for more of the same depressing gray skies that have covered Philly and environs for the past five years. Expect frequent thunderstorms on summer evenings and Sunday afternoons, with most of the activity centered over Broad and Pattison Streets in south Philadelphia. The weather in the Delaware Valley has been preternaturally consistent for the past 15 years, with the glaring exception of 1993. During the summer and fall of '93, there was an exceptionally strong southern detour in the jet stream that caused very unlikely events to happen -- like the Phillies actually fielding a winning team. Long-range baseball forecast: At this point, it is too early to tell exactly what weather will replace the seamless gray web that southeastern Pennsylvania baseball fans have been caught in since 1985. Look for gradual clearing starting in 2003 as construction on the new ballpark continues, with major developments in 2004 when the new venue is scheduled to open. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||