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| Thursday, March 15 | |||||
| Season in review: San Francisco Giants Diamond Mind Baseball | |||||
Diamond Mind is a highly-realistic strategy-oriented computer baseball game. Founder Tom Tippett and a team of top baseball analysts -- Gary Gillette, Stuart Shea and Zack Scott -- are presenting detailed reviews of each team's performance in 2000 (with projected and actual statistics for all key players) along with their thoughts about the outlook for the 2001 season.
This article takes a look at how the San Francisco Giants did in the 2000 season relative to preseason expectations. For an overview of the approach used in this review, and a definition of some of the key terms and statistics, please see the overview page at the Diamond Mind web site.
Capsule summaryProjected Actual Runs for 859 925 Runs allowed 858 747 Run Margin +1 +178 Wins 81 97 Pythagorean wins 81 98 Placement 3rd 1stFollowing an 86-win season in 1999, GM Brian Sabean did very little to upgrade a lineup led by aging veterans and a rotation filled with question marks. The Giants weren't expected to be much better than .500, but manager Dusty Baker always seems to get the most out of his team and last year was no exception. Baker's team was blessed with remarkable health that keyed an 11-game improvement in one year. San Francisco's first season in Pac Bell Park got off to a slow start as the team lost its first six home games, but they quickly learned to love their new home, compiling a 55-20 home record the rest of the way. No team in either league fared better in their home park, and while the pitchers appreciated Pac Bell's deep power alleys, Giant hitters didn't seem fazed by the spacious dimensions. They played .500 ball through the first three months and trailed Arizona by 6 1/2 games at the end of June. But their starting pitchers caught on fire and the offense surged in the hot summer months, resulting in a major league-best 59-27 record over the final three months and the NL West title. After cruising to a victory over the Mets in game one of the divisional series, it appeared the Giants would continue their second-half dominance, but New York's pitching silenced the Giant bats and bounced them in five games. (That's a shame, because San Francisco outscored its opponents by 178 runs, the biggest margin in baseball last year. You can make a very good case that the Giants were the best team in baseball, and I would have loved to see them go up against the Yankees in the World Series. -- Tom Tippett Key position players Like Billy Beane has done across the bay in Oakland, Sabean has made the most of his mid-level payroll to put a lineup on the field predicated on getting on base via the walk (league-leading 709 walks) and driving in those runners with their power (second in the NL with a .472 team slugging percentage). Even though their home park suppressed homeruns, the Giants hit 226 dingers, good enough for third in the NL. San Francisco blew away their projected runs scored thanks to Jeff Kent's MVP performance, a full season of Barry Bonds playing at an MVP-deserving level, and an outstanding effort from Ellis Burks. Although Sabean essentially returned the same cast of characters from 1999, the Giants scored 53 more runs than they did the previous year. In the field, the Giants' range as a whole was average but they made very few mistakes and led the league in fielding percentage. Bobby Estalella, c, age 25 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 452 96 19 1 20 62 64 4 64 1 106 2 2 .212 .312 .392 .704 56 Prorated SF 311 66 13 1 14 43 44 3 44 1 73 1 1 .212 .312 .392 .704 38 Actual SF 299 70 22 3 14 45 53 2 57 9 92 3 0 .234 .357 .468 .826 54Before the season, the Giants acquired Estalella from the Phillies to replace the departed Brent Mayne. Despite a history of shoulder problems, Estalella used his Popeye arms to fuse an offensive explosion through the season's first three months (.301 AVG, .596 SPC) but became an offensive liability in the second half (.170, .346). He played in 30 more games than in his previous four major league seasons combined, allowing him to easily post career highs in virtually all offensive categories. Estalella has a great batting eye and very good raw power, but he must be a more consistent hitter in order to avoid three-month slides and maintain a regular job in the majors. Doug Mirabelli, c, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 83 20 5 0 2 11 10 1 12 1 15 1 0 .241 .340 .373 .714 11 Prorated SF 234 56 14 0 6 31 28 3 34 3 42 3 0 .241 .340 .373 .714 32 Actual SF 230 53 10 2 6 23 28 2 36 2 57 1 0 .230 .337 .370 .707 30Mirabelli failed to take advantage of Estalella's second-half slump by batting only .216 and slugging .270 during the same time period. He is adequate behind the plate and has a good batting eye, but his weak bat essentially guarantees that he will never be more than a backup. Mirabelli had surgery on his left knee following the 2000 campaign but is expected to be ready for the season. J.T. Snow, 1b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 536 145 30 1 22 86 95 3 80 6 104 1 2 .271 .365 .453 .818 91 Prorated SF 537 145 30 1 22 86 95 3 80 6 104 1 2 .271 .365 .453 .818 91 Actual SF 536 152 33 2 19 82 96 11 66 6 129 1 3 .284 .365 .459 .824 89The inclusion of Bonds-Kent-Snow in a recent online poll that asked which team had the most dangerous 3-4-5 hitters got me thinking that Snow may be one of the game's most overrated players. He's definitely not a bad player, but his entire game is slightly above average at best. Offensively, Snow's OPS ranked in the middle of the pack among NL first basemen and his walk rate and power output were league-average. In the field, Snow won a Gold Glove because he makes very few mistakes and is adept at scooping low throws from his fellow infielders, but our analysis has shown his range to be consistently average over the years. Prior to the 1999 season, Snow abandoned switch-hitting and has since improved against left-handed pitchers, but he needs to hit for more power before he can be considered a dangerous hitter in the middle of anyone's lineup. Jeff Kent, 2b/1b, age 32 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 570 161 40 2 28 95 118 7 63 3 109 11 4 .282 .356 .507 .863 103 Prorated SF 611 173 43 2 30 102 127 8 68 3 117 12 4 .282 .356 .507 .863 111 Actual SF 587 196 41 7 33 114 125 9 90 6 107 12 9 .334 .424 .596 1.021 149Kent blew away everyone's expectations on course for a career year that earned him the National League's MVP award. He set career bests in almost every offensive category, and besides having the highest OPS among all second basemen, Kent finished in the league's top 10 in batting average, on-base and slugging percentage, runs, RBI, and total bases. His accomplishments are more impressive when you consider that he played half of his games in one of the league's best pitcher's parks. Kent's power numbers were slightly lower at Pac Bell, but he still managed a .986 OPS at home. A key to his success was his unusual durability -- he missed only 3 games and played in more than 140 games for only the second time in his nine-year career. It will be difficult for Kent to continue to perform at this level, and he may not be as fortunate with his health in 2001. Bill Mueller, 3b/2b, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 476 140 27 1 7 76 53 3 70 1 65 3 2 .294 .385 .399 .784 77 Prorated SF 538 158 31 1 8 86 60 3 79 1 74 3 2 .294 .385 .399 .784 87 Actual SF 560 150 29 4 10 97 55 6 52 0 62 4 2 .268 .333 .388 .721 73 As exceptional as Kent's power was, the Giants needed every bit of it because they got a second baseman's offense from their third baseman. Mueller is typically good at getting on base, but his batting average dipped below .290 for the first time and he walked at his lowest rate ever. While he was one of the league's worst offensive third basemen, Mueller had the NL's best fielding percentage at the hot corner. But the Giants are apparently willing to live with Russ Davis' erratic defense in order to get more power from the position. After the season, they traded Mueller to the Cubs for Tim Worrell in an attempt to bolster their bullpen. Russ Davis, 3b/1b, age 30AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 122 29 5 0 5 15 17 1 9 0 30 1 1 .238 .293 .402 .695 14 Prorated SF 175 42 7 0 7 21 24 1 13 0 43 1 1 .238 .293 .402 .695 20 Actual SF 180 47 5 0 9 27 24 2 9 0 29 0 3 .261 .302 .439 .741 23By replacing Mueller with Davis, the Giants lose range and steady hands at third and about 60 points of on-base percentage at the plate. What do they gain? Davis will provide about 50 additional points of slugging percentage and several headaches for his pitching staff -- his .933 fielding percentage was only .004 higher than Phil Nevin's league-worst rate (among 3B). Basically, the Giants need Pedro Feliz to blossom and win the job. Pedro Feliz, 3b, age 23 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Actual SF 7 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .286 .286 .286 .571 1Third base may turn out to be a nightmare for San Francisco if Feliz doesn't flourish in 2001. Although he displayed awesome power at Triple-A, he has never come within 100 points of last season's .571 slugging percentage in any of his six previous minor league seasons. Feliz will need to find that power in the majors because it's his only offensive skill -- he doesn't run well and his career high for walks in a season is a pathetic 30. Defensively, he is steadier than Davis and his range can't possibly be worse. Rich Aurilia, ss, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 574 161 29 1 20 76 80 4 50 3 71 2 3 .280 .340 .439 .779 85 Prorated SF 515 145 26 1 18 68 72 4 45 3 64 2 3 .280 .340 .439 .779 76 Actual SF 509 138 24 2 20 67 79 0 54 2 90 1 2 .271 .339 .444 .783 74Offensively, Aurilia virtually matched his numbers from 1999 except he struck out more frequently. Among the NL's weak crop of shortstops, his OPS was second to Barry Larkin and he led the group in homeruns and RBI. In the field, Aurilia improved from the previous year, but his range and hands are only average. This winter, he had off-season wrist surgery on his glove hand but expects to be ready for the season. Ramon Martinez, ss/2b/3b, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 89 24 4 0 2 12 11 0 8 0 10 0 1 .270 .327 .382 .709 11 Prorated SF 189 51 8 0 4 25 23 0 17 0 21 0 2 .270 .327 .382 .709 23 Actual SF 189 57 13 2 6 30 25 1 15 1 22 3 2 .302 .354 .487 .841 31An ingredient in the recipe for success is a significant contribution by your role players, and Martinez came through on both sides of the ball. He hit with more power than your typical utility player and, remarkably, made only one error in his 80 games in the field. Don't be surprised to see Martinez filling in often at third if Feliz fails to hit and Davis is...well...Davis. Barry Bonds, lf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 521 147 33 4 40 124 111 6 112 21 83 22 6 .282 .412 .591 1.003 134 Prorated SF 492 139 31 4 38 117 105 6 106 20 78 21 6 .282 .412 .591 1.003 126 Actual SF 480 147 28 4 49 129 106 3 117 22 77 11 3 .306 .440 .688 1.127 155Bonds deserved to be the league MVP. He came back from 1999's elbow and knee surgeries to finish second in the league in OPS to Todd Helton's Coors-inflated 1.162, and in his 15th season, Bonds set career highs in slugging percentage and home runs. His numbers are amazing considering where he played his home games and that he played through lower back pain that was bad enough to cause him to collapse while running out a grounder in May. Among active players, he ranks in the top 10 in career on-base and slugging percentages, only Mark McGwire has more career home runs, and only Rickey Henderson has stolen more bases. Bonds may very well be the best all-around player of our time, but few are willing to give him that much credit because he is not seen as a winner or team player. Both of these perceptions were magnified following the regular season by his continued failure under the playoff spotlight and his recent public request for a contract extension. Felipe Crespo, lf/1b/rf/2b, age 27 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 69 18 3 1 2 12 10 1 11 1 11 2 1 .261 .366 .420 .786 11 Prorated SF 125 33 5 2 4 22 18 2 20 2 20 4 2 .261 .366 .420 .786 21 Actual SF 131 38 6 1 4 17 29 4 10 2 23 3 2 .290 .351 .443 .794 20After three years with the Blue Jays, Crespo spent 1999 with San Fran's Triple-A club in Fresno and showed impressive patience and power that resulted in an OPS over 1.000. That performance earned him a place on the major league roster in 2000, and he responded by hitting for a high average but with less plate discipline and only average power. Crespo was mostly an asset because he played solid defense at four positions and provided a decent baserunner and switch-hitting bat off the bench. Marvin Benard, cf/rf/lf, age 29 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 617 184 41 5 16 105 76 6 66 2 97 25 11 .298 .371 .459 .830 109 Prorated SF 564 168 38 5 15 96 70 5 60 2 89 23 10 .298 .371 .459 .830 99 Actual SF 560 147 27 6 12 102 55 6 63 0 97 22 7 .263 .342 .396 .739 82In a league stocked with superstar center fielders like Griffey, Edmonds, Giles, and Hidalgo, Benard was well below average thanks to his worst season in three years. His decline cannot be blamed on the new park because Benard actually had significantly better numbers at home. While his defense isn't a liability, it's not good enough to justify more than a platoon role -- the left-handed batting Benard had a pathetic .558 OPS against lefties last season, and his OPS is .147 higher against righties over the past five years. But the Giants apparently believe he deserves an everyday role, having given him a three-year, $11.1 million contract extension at the beginning of last season and having done nothing this past winter to bring in a right-handed batter to help out in center. Calvin Murray, cf/lf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 69 17 3 0 1 11 7 0 6 0 10 4 1 .246 .307 .333 .640 7 Prorated SF 211 52 9 0 3 34 21 0 18 0 31 12 3 .246 .307 .333 .640 23 Actual SF 194 47 12 1 2 35 22 3 29 0 33 9 3 .242 .348 .345 .693 27Maybe the Giants didn't make finding a right-handed bat to play center a priority because they believe Murray can fill that role at a lower price tag than any free agent. The veteran minor leaguer made a cameo in 1999 before getting a real opportunity last season. In the minors, Murray showed a good batting eye, decent power, and great speed, but only his batting eye and speed translated to the major league level. San Francisco should explore the possibility of platooning Murray and Benard given the latter's trouble with southpaws and the former's success -- Murray's OPS versus LHP was 207 points higher than Benard's. Ellis Burks, rf, age 35 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 503 135 24 2 28 83 94 6 73 1 102 7 6 .268 .364 .491 .855 90 Prorated SF 390 105 19 2 22 64 73 5 57 1 79 5 5 .268 .364 .491 .855 70 Actual SF 393 135 21 5 24 74 96 1 56 5 49 5 1 .344 .419 .606 1.025 102Coming off of two consecutive off-seasons that required surgery on both knees, Burks continued to show few signs of aging. His bad knees and a strained quadriceps in May limited Burks to less than 475 plate appearances for the second straight season, but when he played, his offensive production ranked up there with the league's best right fielders (Vladimir Guerrero and Sammy Sosa). Burks' numbers were not as great as his 1996 performance, but he set a career high in on-base percentage, and his batting average and slugging percentage were not much lower than they were in his best year in Colorado. But 2000 may be his most impressive season when you take into account his age, physical problems, and the fact that half of his games were played in a pitcher's park as opposed to the most extreme hitter's park in history (Colorado). Following the season, Cleveland rewarded Burks' consistent production with a three-year, $20 million contract. The Indians hope his return to the AL after a seven year absence will allow Burks to occasionally rest his knees as DH in order to help fill the offensive void left by Manny Ramirez' departure. Armando Rios, rf/lf/cf, age 28 AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI HP W IW K SB CS AVG OBP SPC OPS RC Projection SF 113 30 5 0 4 20 20 1 14 1 20 3 1 .265 .349 .416 .765 17 Prorated SF 234 62 10 0 8 41 41 2 29 2 41 6 2 .265 .349 .416 .765 36 Actual SF 233 62 15 5 10 38 50 0 31 4 43 3 2 .266 .347 .502 .849 39This season, the Giants will try to replace Burks with a platoon of Rios and Eric Davis, but it's not reasonable to expect this duo to come close to matching Burks' production. Rios probably just hopes to have better luck in the future -- in 1999, his wife was diagnosed with cancer and he tore his rotator cuff while attempting a diving catch, and in 2000, his grandmother died and he needed off-season elbow surgery. When he's healthy, Rios has good power and can run down fly balls in the outfield. The Rios/Davis platoon will be a downgrade from Burks but should provide no worse than league-average offense out of right field. Key pitchers The Giants previous home, Candlestick/3Com, was a pitcher's park, but Pac Bell Park was even more friendly to the mound corps because its deep (420') power alley in right center made it very difficult for lefties to hit the ball out of the park. Last March, not knowing whether the deep alleys or the short porch down the right field line would have the greater impact, we generated our projections on the assumption that Pac Bell would be a league-average park. As it turned out, it suppressed scoring by 18%, and had we used that number in our projections, the Giants pitching staff would have been projected to allow 789 runs. But they beat that park-adjusted projection by 42 runs thanks to strong performances by most of their starters (led by Livan Hernandez) and the outstanding efforts of bullpen fireballers Felix Rodriguez and Robb Nen. The new park's larger gaps helped the staff cut its homeruns allowed by 43 (compared with 1999) and surrender the fewest long balls (151) in the NL. That spacious outfield had a flip side, of course, as the team allowed 20 more triples and ranked third last in the NL in that category with 39. The San Francisco staff also walked fewer batters and turned more double plays than in the previous year, so many fewer baserunners made it into scoring position. The Giants led the majors in shutouts thanks to a starting rotation that stayed relatively healthy and made 88 quality starts (2nd in the NL) and the deadly one-two punch of Rodriguez and Nen to finish off opponents. Livan Hernandez, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 5.06 32 32 11 14 0 217 243 30 87 149 .285 .803 Prorated SF 5.06 34 34 12 15 0 233 261 32 93 160 .285 .803 Actual SF 3.75 33 33 17 11 0 240 254 22 73 165 .273 .732 In his first full season as a Giant, Hernandez recovered from a shaky start (0-4, 5.61 ERA through his first four starts) to put together his best season to date, setting career highs in wins and strikeouts, significantly improving his walk rate, and allowing homeruns at the league's eighth lowest rate. Like many Giants pitchers, he was aided by the pitcher-friendly confines of Pac Bell Park (12-3, 2.98), but give him credit for coming up big in the second half (10-4, 3.19) to help San Fran run away with the division. Although he just turned 26 last month, Hernandez already has 773 major league innings under his belt, and the huge workload may be a legitimate concern. Last season, nobody faced more batters per game or threw more pitches per start (116), so Baker may want to pay more attention to his pitch counts in order to get maximum long-term value out of Hernandez. Russ Ortiz, starter, age 26ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.60 32 32 12 12 0 201 197 25 114 154 .259 .775 Prorated SF 4.60 31 31 12 12 0 196 192 24 111 150 .259 .775 Actual SF 5.01 33 32 14 12 0 196 192 28 112 167 .261 .792Ortiz followed his 1999 18-win performance with a disastrous year that was salvaged by one incredible stretch of seven starts. He struggled through the season's first four months and entered August with a 5-10 record, 6.46 ERA, and a gopher-ball rate (24 homers allowed in 112 innings) approaching Jose Lima territory. But over his next seven starts, Ortiz pitched like a man possessed (by Pedro Martinez apparently), winning all seven games while posting a minuscule .96 ERA. He earned the NL's Player of the Month for August and helped thrust his team into a commanding lead for the division crown. Ortiz finished the season with five mediocre starts, but in the final two months of the season he allowed only four homeruns, which translates to a rate similar to the league's lowest rates. In 2001, Ortiz looks to build off his encouraging finish. Shawn Estes, starter, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.48 32 32 12 12 0 203 205 21 108 155 .266 .760 Prorated SF 4.48 30 30 11 11 0 188 190 19 100 143 .266 .760 Actual SF 4.26 30 30 15 6 0 190 194 11 108 136 .275 .748Estes' winning percentage of 71% was good enough for second best in the league, but his record was deceiving considering that his teammates supported him with a major league-leading 8.65 runs per nine innings. Only three pitchers in the majors walked more batters than Estes and only four NL pitchers put more runners on base per nine innings, resulting in numbers more consistent with an ERA about a half a run higher. But the ground ball pitcher erased a lot of those extra baserunners by inducing a major league leading 40 double plays. Pac Bell's spacious outfield perhaps provided Estes more confidence as he walked fewer batters and surrendered only four homeruns while compiling a 9-4 record and a 3.21 ERA at home. Kirk Rueter, starter, age 29 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 5.04 32 32 9 11 0 177 199 25 56 90 .286 .799 Prorated SF 5.04 33 33 9 11 0 184 207 26 58 94 .286 .799 Actual SF 3.96 32 31 11 9 0 184 205 23 62 71 .290 .803Estes' record may have been deceiving last season, but that doesn't begin to compare with the good fortune that Rueter has had throughout his career. Rueter has won 63% of his decisions (81-48), a career winning percentage good enough for eighth best among active players (minimum of 100 decisions) and better than Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton. Since joining the Giants in 1996, he has consistently been a slightly above average pitcher that has received incredible run support (6.5 runs per nine innings). Rueter has almost always taken his turn in the rotation, averaging 32 starts in each of his four full seasons with San Francisco, but has yet to crack the 200-inning barrier. Overall, he is a reliable 4th or 5th starter who will throw the ball over the plate and allow his fielders to make the plays. The Giants showed their appreciation in August by signing Rueter to a three-year, $15.6 million contract extension. Joe Nathan, starter, age 25 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 5.01 27 27 8 10 0 158 155 28 85 111 .258 .811 Prorated SF 5.01 16 16 5 6 0 96 94 17 52 67 .258 .811 Actual SF 5.21 20 15 5 2 0 93 89 12 63 61 .255 .815The Giants handed Nathan the #5 spot in the rotation but shoulder problems and a lack of command limited him to 15 starts and resulted in shoulder surgery at season's end. He pitched approximately the same number of innings at home and on the road but gave up 8 fewer homers in Pac Bell, resulting in an ERA more than five runs better than on the road. Nathan is another San Francisco pitcher that has benefited from solid run support (7.33 runs per nine innings in 2000), allowing him to win a Rueter-like 67% of his decisions in his 184 career innings. Once again, Nathan will compete with Mark Gardner for the final rotation spot. Mark Gardner, starter, age 38 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 5.06 34 4 4 6 0 85 91 15 32 55 .273 .810 Prorated SF 5.06 58 7 7 10 0 145 154 25 54 93 .273 .810 Actual SF 4.05 30 20 11 7 0 149 155 16 42 92 .270 .743Gardner was the only Giant starter to have a higher ERA at home than on the road and received some of the worst run support in the NL (4.65 runs per nine innings), but he still managed to win 10 of his 15 decisions as a starter. Despite making his fewest starts since joining San Francisco in 1996, Gardner had one of his best seasons -- he drastically improved his homerun rate (thanks in part to the new park) and had better command of the strike zone, resulting in his lowest ERA in nine years. He became a free agent after the season but re-signed with the Giants for one year at $2 million. Like the man he'll be competing with (Nathan), Gardner had off-season shoulder surgery and will need a solid spring to earn the rotation's final spot. Aaron Fultz, long reliever, age 26 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 5.50 27 4 2 3 0 54 60 10 23 49 .282 .847 Prorated SF 5.50 33 5 2 4 0 67 74 12 28 61 .282 .847 Actual SF 4.67 58 0 5 2 1 69 67 8 28 62 .263 .763After eight seasons in the minors, Fultz got off to a shaky start in his major league debut, walking 23 batters in his 39 innings (and a 6.69 ERA) prior to the All-star break. Perhaps he used the break to calm his nerves because he found his groove in the second half and cut his walk rate to a Maddux-esque 1.5 per nine innings (5 walks in 30.1 innings) and his ERA to 2.08 after the break. The southpaw was better than Alan Embree against left-handed batters, holding them to a .221 batting average. Miguel del Toro, long reliever, age 28 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 5.33 30 0 2 3 0 49 55 9 26 41 .285 .867 Prorated SF 5.33 10 0 1 1 0 17 19 3 9 14 .285 .867 Actual SF 5.19 9 1 2 0 0 17 17 3 6 16 .250 .800In his second year in the Giants' system, del Toro became a starter and made 20 unimpressive starts at Triple-A (6.01 ERA), a performance that earned him only eight big-league relief appearances and one start. As he has throughout his professional career, he continued to allow homeruns at an unacceptable rate for a major league reliever. In 2001, del Toro will pitch in Japan, his third country in the last four years (he played in Mexico prior to 1999). John Johnstone, middle reliever, age 31 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 3.09 70 0 5 2 2 76 64 9 27 62 .229 .694 Prorated SF 3.09 49 0 4 1 1 53 45 6 19 44 .229 .694 Actual SF 6.30 47 0 3 4 0 50 64 11 13 37 .322 .940Over the previous two seasons, Johnstone had established himself as one of the league's best setup men before a car accident in August of 1999 caused a lower back injury that ended that campaign. Although he had expected to be fine a year later, the back injury persisted in 2000, and Johnstone posted the highest ERA and worst gopher-ball rate of his career. Following the season, he had surgery on his bulging disk and hopes to return to the form that allowed him to lead the league in holds in 1999. Alan Embree, lefty setup, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 3.18 70 0 5 3 1 74 64 8 34 60 .234 .693 Prorated SF 3.18 58 0 4 3 1 62 53 7 28 50 .234 .693 Actual SF 4.95 63 0 3 5 2 60 62 4 25 49 .274 .737Like fellow lefty Fultz, Embree had a rough first half (6.00 ERA) due mostly to a lack of control but had very good command and results (3.38) after the break. He recorded his highest number of innings pitched but his first half slump resulted in his highest ERA since coming to the National League in 1997. Although he is significantly better against left-handed batters over his career, Embree was more effective against righties in 2000. If Fultz and Embree continue to perform at their second-half level, they will become key parts in what could be one of the league's deepest bullpens. Felix Rodriguez, setup man, age 27 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 4.02 53 0 4 3 0 72 71 6 38 54 .260 .739 Prorated SF 4.02 58 0 4 3 0 78 77 7 41 59 .260 .739 Actual SF 2.64 76 0 4 2 3 82 65 5 42 95 .220 .634Rodriguez' control slipped a bit from 1999 but was still better than the three seasons prior to that, and he struck out hitters at a dominant rate that was 8th best among NL relievers. Armed with heat in the high 90's and a hard slider, the former catcher led the majors in holds and established himself as one of the game's premier setup men . His repertoire is particularly effective against lefties -- Rodriguez held them to a .158 batting average and .203 slugging percentage and fanned them almost twice as often as right-handed batters. The hard-throwing combination of Rodriguez and Robb Nen didn't give opponents much hope after the 7th inning. Doug Henry, setup man, age 36 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection Hou 4.42 40 0 3 3 0 53 54 8 30 43 .265 .807 Prorated Hou 4.42 38 0 3 3 0 50 51 8 28 40 .265 .807 Actual Hou 4.42 45 0 1 3 1 53 39 10 28 46 .204 .733 Prorated SF 4.42 18 0 1 1 0 24 25 4 14 20 .265 .807 Actual SF 2.49 27 0 3 1 0 25 18 2 21 16 .214 .695 Prorated Tot 4.42 56 0 4 4 0 74 75 11 42 60 .265 .807 Actual Tot 3.79 72 0 4 4 1 78 57 12 49 62 .207 .722Henry looked to rebound from a disappointing 1999 that included surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, but he got off to a slow start with the Astros, struggling through the season's first two months with a 5.53 ERA and surrendering seven homers in 27.2 innings. He settled down and was at his best in June, then had a few more shaky outings in July before being dealt to the Giants for Scott Linebrink at the trading deadline. In his second tour of duty with San Francisco (he was previously with the team in 1997), Henry experienced severe control problems but was able to keep the ball in the park and minimize the damage. After the season, Henry became a free agent and signed with Kansas City for the next two seasons with a team option for 2003. Robb Nen, closer, age 30 ERA G GS W L S INN H HR BB K AVG OPS Projection SF 3.11 70 0 5 5 33 75 70 8 27 75 .247 .691 Prorated SF 3.11 57 0 4 4 27 61 57 7 22 61 .247 .691 Actual SF 1.50 68 0 4 3 41 66 37 4 19 92 .162 .471Coming off his worst season and elbow surgery that was expected to significantly impair him, Nen was slowly nursed back to full strength and was stronger than ever. The Giants did a good job of gradually increasing his workload through the first few months, and their strategy was met with encouraging results (2.63 ERA, 12-16 in save opportunities, and 30 strikeouts in 27.1 innings). But Nen began to dominate in July and seemed to only get stronger as the season continued. On July 4th, he saved both games of a double-header and didn't blow a save the rest of the way. During his 28-28 run to close the season, Nen threw 36 innings in which he struck out 56 batters and walked only 7 -- a strikeout-walk ratio resembling Pedro Martinez -- and allowed only three runs to score (.75 ERA). His amazing performance earned him a fourth-place finish in the NL's Cy Young balloting. Perhaps the Giants should be cautiously optimistic about Nen in 2001 because he has established a pronounced trend in his career: following a great year with a letdown. Since becoming a closer in 1994, Nen has successfully converted 89% of his save opportunities with a 1.92 ERA in even-numbered years, but his success rate has dropped to 81% and his ERA has risen to 3.74 in odd-numbered years. Outlook The Giants may have blown a huge opportunity last year by losing to the Mets in the NL division series, because up until that point they were having a rare season in which everything seemed to go right. They can't expect to be as healthy as last year, especially with players like Bonds and Kent who have had a history of injury problems in recent years. They also don't have a right to expect the same MVP-type performances by both Kent and Bonds. And most of their key players are on the wrong side of thirty. Burks and Mueller have been subtracted from the equation, potentially making the lineup less effective both above and below the the Bonds-Kent-Snow trio. They'll replace Burks with a Rios/Eric Davis platoon and throw Shawon Dunston into the mix as well. Those replacements won't be bad, but it's reasonable to expect a huge downgrade from the production provided by Burks. Mueller's bat will not be missed, but once Davis takes over, Giant pitchers and fans will surely miss Mueller's steady hands that contributed to a defense that made the fewest errors in the NL. Besides Eric Davis and Dunston, Sabean added much-needed bullpen depth by bringing in Tim Worrell (from the Mueller trade) and Jamie Arnold. Last year, the Giants' middle relievers were inconsistent, making them too dependent on Rodriguez and Nen. These newcomers and a healthy Johnstone will try to alleviate some of that pressure. The Giants have a good chance of repeating as division champs, but with the improvements made by Colorado and the high-priced talent of Arizona and LA, don't be surprised to see the NL West become a four-team dogfight. Projections and text: Copyright © 2000-2001. Diamond Mind, Inc. All rights reserved. Actual 2000 statistics: Copyright © 2000. STATS, Inc. All rights reserved. | Diamond Mind reports | ||||