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Monday, November 20
More and more of Batting Value



I feel like a kid with a new toy; I received my copy of the 2001 STATS Major League Handbook as well as the Player Profiles book. Before I list updated Batting Value numbers and a few other things, take a look at these two pitching lines:

IP: 430 1/3; H: 288; HR: 26; BB: 69; SO: 597; W-L 41-10; ERA: 1.90
IP: 430 1/3; H: 470; HR: 59; BB: 172; SO: 286; W-L 26-27; ERA: 5.06

You can probably figure out that the first line has something to do with Pedro Martinez and it does, of course. It represents his combined numbers for the last two seasons. The bottom line is the average line for American League starters for the last two seasons pro-rated for Martinez's number of innings. It's almost inconceivable that a player can be so far ahead of his peers. I don't know that I can write anything that will adequately describe what Martinez has done.

If you haven't read anything about Batting Value (BV) before, it is simply a combination of the two most important offensive numbers, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, designed to look like a batting average so that its standards are easily understood. In 2000, the American League BV was .280 and the National League BV was .274. For players active in 2000 with at least 2,000 career plate appearances (2000 for 2000 has a nice ring to it, don't you think), here are the top and bottom in career BV:

Player BV
Frank Thomas .359
Todd Helton .353
Manny Ramirez .348
Mark McGwire .345
Barry Bonds .343
Jeff Bagwell .341
Mike Piazza .338
Edgar Martinez .338
Brian Giles .338
Vladimir Guerrero .336

Player BV
Rey Ordonez .209
Jeff Huson .217
Matt Walbeck .218
Ozzie Guillen .223
Gary DiSarcina .226
Darren Lewis .233
Rey Sanchez .233
Charlie O'Brien .234
Luis Sojo .234
Brian L. Hunter .234

Not too many surprises on either list, huh? Yes, Todd Helton is helped by playing in Colorado, but his Road BV in 2000 was .375 and for his career it's .310. Maybe instead of the Mendoza line it should be called the Ordonez line, except that might insult Magglio.

For the last five seasons, here are the top and bottom in BV:

Player BV
Mark McGwire .398
Larry Walker .374
Barry Bonds .371
Jeff Bagwell .359
Manny Ramirez .358

Player BV
Rey Ordonez .209
Mike Matheny .222
Ozzie Guillen .224
Gary DiSarcina .227
Brian L. Hunter .231

Walker's road BV for the last five seasons is .317. McGwire's numbers are unbelievable, but they're even more amazing with runners in scoring position: .436 BV/.499 OBP/.755 SLG/.304 AVG with 73 homers in 559 at-bats. I think McGwire has outgrown the nickname he used to have among some of his teammates early in his career, Marco Solo.

Just one more list, I promise. I calculated the simple ratio of BV to batting average as a measure of whose batting average is most misleading. Here are the top and "bottom" five:

Player BV AVG RATIO
Mark McGwire .345 .267 1.29
Barry Bonds .343 .289 1.19
Jim Thome .336 .284 1.18
Jay Buhner .299 .254 1.18
Jeromy Burnitz .303 .259 1.17

Player BV AVG RATIO
Ozzie Guillen .223 .264 0.84
Rey Sanchez .233 .273 0.86
Rey Ordonez .209 .243 0.86
Gary DiSarcina .226 .258 0.87
Jose Vizcaino .236 .269 0.88

The active player with a .300+ career batting average whose BV exceeds his batting average the most is Brian Giles (.338 BV/.301 AVG/1.12 RATIO) while the .300+ hitter whose batting average exceeds his BV the most is Tony Gwynn (.302 BV/.338 AVG/0.89 RATIO). Three active players -- Harold Baines (.291 BV/.291 AVG), Craig Biggio (.291/.291), and Jeff Reed (.250/.250) -- have the same BV and batting average.

If you're still awake (I'm not sure I am), I'll stop now. Can you believe that I actually get paid for doing this stuff?! One other thing: I have no idea who won in Florida or where Alex Rodriguez is going to sign. Bye.

Eddie Epstein is a former front-office executive with the Orioles and Padres.