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Tuesday, December 17
Updated: December 19, 3:53 PM ET
 
Rule 5 first-round analysis

By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

Here are capsule looks at the players selected in the major league portion of Monday's Rule 5 draft.

The Ratings in the "Chance" section go, in order from good to bad, very good/good/fair/remote/zero.

Enrique Cruz, INF., Milwaukee (selected from Mets)
Hit .291 with six homers and 33 steals for Class A St. Lucie in the Florida State League. Fast, athletic, and wiry, Cruz is a fine defensive third baseman, with enough range to play shortstop. He's hit for average, but not for much power, and his plate discipline is marginal. Scouts love him.
Chance to stick: Good. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

Hector Luna, SS, Tampa Bay (selected from Cleveland)
Hit .276 with 11 homers and 32 steals for Class A Kinston in the Carolina League. A 20-year-old Dominican, Luna has decent power/speed potential. He doesn't draw many walks, but doesn't strike out much, either. Jumping from A-ball to the majors given his age and experience level would be tough, but it's not like the D-Rays are loaded with talent.
Chance to stick: Fair. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

Buddy Hernandez, RHP, San Diego (selected from Atlanta)
Posted 1.22 ERA in 40 games for Double-A Greenville in the Southern League, with 81 strikeouts in 59 innings. Scouts don't like him because he's a short right-hander, but he has a good fastball, and a killer breaking ball. His strikeout rates are extremely high, a good sign, and he would slot well as a middle man in major league bullpens right now.
Chance to stick: Very good. Chance to do something interesting: Good.

Wilfredo Ledezma, LHP, Detroit (selected from Boston)
21-year-old Venezuelan lefty, has a live arm and good command. Missed all of '01 and most of '02 recovering from an elbow injury; pitched just 27 innings this year, though he pitched those innings very well (41/8 K/BB ratio). Has no experience above the South Atlantic League, and looks like a serious long shot at this point.
Chance to stick: Remote. Chance to do something interesting: Remote.

Derek Thompson, LHP, Chicago Cubs (selected from Cleveland)
Supplemental first-round pick in the 2000 draft, out of high school in Land O'Lakes, Florida. Missed almost all of '01 with knee injuries, but was healthy and reasonably effective in '02, posting a 3.65 ERA combined between Class A Kinston and Class A Columbus. He's got a live arm, but his ratios don't imply he'll have quick success in the majors: his K/BB was 91/59 in 148 innings this year. After being picked by the Cubs, was traded to the Dodgers and will have to try their roster.
Chance to stick: Fair. Chance to do something interesting: Remote.

Dan Carrasco, RHP, Kansas City (selected from Pittsburgh)
25-year-old, originally drafted by the Orioles in the 26th round in '97, out of Pima (Arizona) JC. Eventually released, then signed with the Pirates as a free agent. Saved 29 games with a 1.61 ERA at Class A Lynchburg this year, with a sharp 83/18 K/BB in 73 innings. Throws hard, and could be a solid middle reliever, but dominating the Carolina League at age 25 is not impressive.
Chance to stick: Good. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

Matt Roney, RHP, Pittsburgh (selected from Colorado)
First-round pick in the '98 draft, out of high school in Oklahoma. Bothered by arm problems, particularly a shredded labrum which cost him all of '99. Struggled in his first Double-A trial in '02, posting a 6.11 ERA in 13 starts at Carolina. He has a live arm and is still just 22, but hasn't reached his potential, and doesn't look ready for the majors at this point. After being selected by the Pirates, was traded to Detroit.
Chance to stick: Fair. Chance to do something interesting: Remote.

Victor Hall, OF, Colorado (selected from Arizona)
12th-round pick in the '98 draft, out of high school in California. Hall is very fast, stealing 194 bases in his career thus far, including 60 in the Midwest League in '01 and 33 combined at two levels in '02. He lacks power, and his plate discipline has been inconsistent. He has just 38 games of Double-A experience, but might find a slot as a reserve outfielder.
Chance to stick: Fair. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

Marshall McDougall, 3B, Texas (selected from Cleveland)
Originally with Oakland, this former Florida State star was traded to Cleveland last summer. He has a decent line-drive bat, occasionally takes a walk, has some pop, and can handle defensive work at both second base and third base. He doesn't have star potential, but could develop into a useful Randy Velarde-type. How he fits on the Texas roster is unclear.
Chance to stick: Fair. Chance to do something interesting: Good.

Travis Chapman, 3B, Cleveland (selected from Philadelphia)
Chapman became expendable when the Phillies signed David Bell. He's a line-drive hitter with a proven track record of hitting for average, including this year in Double-A where he hit .301. He also controls the strike zone pretty well, but will probably never be a big power hitter. After being selected by the Indians, was traded to Detroit. Has a good chance of starting at third base in '03, though Comerica Park could hurt him.
Chance to stick: Very good. Chance to do something interesting: Good.

Luke Prokopec, RHP, Cincinnati (selected from Los Angeles)
A hot prospect a few years ago with the Dodgers, he was unable to establish himself after going to the Blue Jays in a trade, then hurt his shoulder. Expected to miss all of 2003 following surgery, he was granted free agency, then signed back with the Dodgers, who left him exposed to Rule 5 by placing him on a minor league roster. The Reds have decided to take a flier on him; they'll have to leave him on the DL all year assuming he can't pitch.
Chance to stick: Very good. Chance to do something interesting: Zero.

Aquilino Lopez, RHP, Toronto (selected from Seattle)
This guy has an excellent track record, with strong pitching at every level, including Triple-A in 2002 where he posted a 2.39 ERA and a 103/27 K/BB ratio in 109 innings, being used as both a starter and reliever. He would have received more attention, but was caught up in the AgeGate scandal last spring. It turned out he was 27, not 22, so the Mariners (and most other teams) soured on him. That doesn't mean he isn't a good pitcher; he is. He throws fairly hard, throws strikes, and has done well at every level.
Chance to stick: Very good. Chance to do something interesting: Good.

Javier Lopez, LHP, Boston (selected from Arizona)
Used as an anti-southpaw bullpen guy at Double-A El Paso, Lopez went 2-2 with six saves and a 2.72 ERA, fanning 47 in 46 innings, with 16 walks. He's got decent stuff, and should be able to handle short relief work without too much problem, assuming he continues to throw strikes. He is 25 years old.
Chance to stick: Good. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

Luis Ayala, RHP, Montreal (selected from Arizona)
Mexican League veteran, doesn't light up the radar guns, but has gotten people out, collecting 94 saves in five seasons for Saltillo. With the Expos for part of last year, pitching at Triple-A Ottawa for eight innings. Was signed by the Diamondbacks as a minor league free agent, but the Expos apparently want him back.
Chance to stick: Fair. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

Jose Morban, SS, Minnesota (selected from Texas)
Toolsy Dominican shortstop, impresses scouts with his athleticism, but has an erratic performance record. Hit .260 with 27 doubles, 11 triples, eight homers, 21 steals at Class A Charlotte in the Florida State League, but fanned 111 times and made 34 errors. Could stick as a utility infielder, a position where the Twins are weak, but seems unlikely to show sufficient plate discipline to thrive.
Chance to stick: Good. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

Mike Neu, RHP, Oakland (selected from Cincinnati)
Classic player that A's GM Billy Beane would like. Neu doesn't have super blazing stuff, and scouts don't like his 5-8 size, but he's gotten people out at every level, with very nice strikeout rates, including 85 strikeouts in 67 innings in 2002, split between Double-A and Triple-A. Like Buddy Hernandez, he should have a nice career as a middle man.
Chance to stick: Good. Chance to do something interesting: Good.

Chris Spurling, RHP, Atlanta (selected from Pittsburgh)
Spurling was originally a Yankee, a 41st round pick way back in 1997. He was traded to the Pirates for Luis Sojo in 2000. He's been at Double-A Altoona the last two years, posting ERAs of 3.11 and 2.19. Used as a closer in '02, he racked up 20 saves and a 60/12 K/BB ratio in 70 innings. Like Neu and Hernandez, he looks like a fit in middle relief, though his considerably lower strikeout rate implies that he has a weaker chance to succeed.
Chance to stick: Fair. Chance to do something interesting: Fair.

John Sickels is the author of the 2002 Minor League Scouting Notebook, and is now working on the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book. His biography of Bob Feller will be published next spring. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com, or you can visit his homepage at JohnSickels.com.





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