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| Wednesday, January 31 | |||||||||
| Seattle Mariners ESPN.com | |||||||||
What went right? Alex Rodriguez didn't win the MVP Award, but he may have been the best player in the league. Venerable DH Edgar Martinez led the AL with 145 RBI. Kazuhiro Sasaki came over from Japan and solved Seattle's longtime closer problems by converting 37 of 40 save chances. The starters won 71 games, tied for second-most in baseball. Won the wild card on the final day of the season and swept the White Sox in the Division Series before losing to the Yankees in the ALCS. What went wrong? M's got subpar production from second base and third base. Dan Wilson had another bad year with the bat. Young starters Freddy Garcia (broken leg) and Gil Meche (sore shoulder) both missed time with injuries. Jamie Moyer broke his kneecap right before the playoffs. Arthur Rhodes served a big one up to David Justice in Game 6. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Pat Gillick's offseason signings. Aaron Sele won 17 games and John Olerud drove in 103 runs. Rhodes, Stan Javier and Mark McLemore added much-needed depth. 2. Believing in Sasaki. He was 1-4 with a 4.50 ERA through May and nearly lost his closer's job. But he converted 27 of his final 28 save opportunities and held opposing hitters to a .155 average after the All-Star break. 3. Sticking with Jay Buhner for one more year. After two injury-riddled seasons, the M's brought Buhner back at a discounted rate and he drove in 82 runs in just 364 at-bats. Looking ahead to 2001 Three key questions 1. How good will Ichiro Suzuki be? He won seven straight batting titles in Japan and hit .387 last year. Nobody else was within 40 points of him. He's not a power hitter, but needs to give Seattle top-flight production from the leadoff spot. 2. How bad will the offense be from the infield? John Olerud always provides a solid on-base percentage, but the rest of the infield could be horrible: Bret Boone (.326), David Bell (.316) and Carlos Guillen (.324) all struggled to get on base. 3. Does Gillick have something up his sleeve? The Mariners appear to have depth in the rotation and bullpen to acquire another bat.
Garcia should again approach the 17 wins he registered as a rookie and if he can improve his K/BB ratio, his ERA should go down. Moyer's ERA was ruined by an 0-5, 9.84 August. He's capable of improving upon his 5.49 season mark. Guillen hit .257 overall, but .296 after the All-Star break. Can expect to play worse Dan Wilson needs a fork put in him. Sasaki had the best save percentage in the majors last year. Without Rodriguez in front of him, don't expect Martinez to drive in 145 runs again. Will Buhner produce at his 2000 level (.522 slugging, 82 RBI) or at his 1998-99 level (83 RBI combined)? Projected lineup RF Ichiro Suzuki SS Carlos Guillen 1B John Olerud DH Edgar Martinez LF Jay Buhner / Al Martin CF Mike Cameron 2B Bret Boone 3B David Bell C Dan Wilson / Tom Lampkin / Chris Widger Rotation Freddy Garcia Aaron Sele Jamie Moyer Gil Meche John Halama / Paul Abbott Closer Kazuhiro Sasaki A closer look Last year's Mariners, at least on paper, didn't appear to have much of an offense. Sure, they had Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez as the heart of the order, but their leadoff hitters combined to hit a paltry .243 and the back of the lineup was filled with the non-threatening likes of David Bell, Dan Wilson and Mark McLemore. The Mariners hit just .269, 12th in the league. They hit 198 home runs, seventh in the league. Yet they scored 907 runs, fourth in the league, despite playing in Safeco Field, which played as a great park for pitchers. Heck, by one measure they may have been the best offensive team in the league: they led the AL in runs scored on the road. How did they do it? Simple. The Mariners drew 775 walks, tied for the fourth-most in history and the most since the 1949 Red Sox set the all-time record with 835. Still, everybody is saying the 2001 Mariners will have great pitching and a terrible offense, especially with the departure of Alex Rodriguez. How good will Seattle's offense will be in 2001? Let's compare each position from 2000 production vs. expected 2001 production. There are five positions where the offense should be relatively unchanged. From the team stats page, we can see the combined totals for each position from last season: Catcher: .303 OBP, .425 SLG. Dan Wilson is still the starter with Chris Widger and Tom Lampkin the backups. The M's would be wise to keep Wilson permanently on the bench, but don't count on it. First base: .388 OBP, .438 SLG. John Olerud returns and should produce similar numbers. Third base: .320 OBP, .384 SLG. David Bell and Carlos Guillen split the position last year. Once again, offense looks to be a problem here. Center field: .367 OBP, .446 SLG. Mike Cameron had a solid year. Look for the same. Designated hitter: .427 OBP, .581 SLG. The great Edgar Martinez can flat-out hit. OK, that leaves four positions with new players. Let's see how they shape up. Second base. Mark McLemore and David Bell got the playing time last year, combining for a .343 on-base percentage, but a terrible .348 slugging percentage. The M's are going the opposite route this year. Bret Boone gets on base less, but hits for more power. Using Runs Created, we can estimate that Mariner second basemen created about 79 runs last year. Using projected totals from the Stats Inc. Major League Handbook, we project Boone at about 76 runs. Net total: -3 runs. Left field: Rickey Henderson and Stan Javier got on base last year (.355 OBP) but had no power (.355 slugging). Overall, the .710 OPS was subpar for left field. Jay Buhner and Al Martin will hit for more power and still draw their share of walks. This should be an improvement. Net total: +18 runs. Shortstop: Carlos Guillen steps in. Alex Rodriguez created about 136 runs last year, according to Stats Inc.. Guillen added about 13 more in his games at shortstop. Using Guillen's projected 2001 numbers (.271, 14 home runs, .332 OBP, .400 slugging), we get about 82 runs created. Net total: -67 runs. Right field: Buhner, Javier and others combined for a .327 OBP and .442 slugging percentage last year -- about 92 runs created. The new right fielder is Japanese star Ichiro Suzuki. How will he do? It's a wild card, but thanks to our friends at the Baseball Prospectus, we can make a good guess. BP estimates Suzuki as producing similar numbers to Johnny Damon: .329 average, .386 OBP, .484 slugging. That translates to about 111 runs created over 600 at-bats. Net total: +19 runs. Combining the four positions, we get a net loss of about 33 runs, not the drastic drop many expect. That would move the Mariners from fourth in the league in scoring to seventh. Of course, that is leaning heavily on a healthy Edgar Martinez and a productive Ichiro Suzuki. What's interesting is Seattle's walks -- the key to their offense in 2000 -- will take a severe hit in 2001. Second base, shortstop, left field and right field will all see a lower total in the walk column. Still, the pitching could be even stronger this year and counteract the loss in runs scored. The Mariners should once again be in the thick of the playoff chase, especially if Gillick can swing a deal for a third baseman. David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Mariners minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters | ||||||||
Carlos Guillen. Just like Mike Cameron replacing Griffey, Carlos Guillen isn't going to replicate A-Rod's numbers. But he's still replacing him in the lineup. Guillen is the only true shortstop the Mariners have and the outlook from the minors isn't much better.
Guillen looks to have big, solid legs. Whether that will hinder his quickness defensively is still uncertain. He's had chronic leg problems in his career -- he got shut down in winter ball this year. The Mariners will probably look for infield help, but Guillen is going to get the first crack at shortstop.
Guillen hit .147 in the first half of the year and was demoted. When he came back he hit .296 with a .479 slugging percentage. The Mariners have gone from a great offensive team to one that relies on pitching and defense. For all of A-Rod's considerable offensive productivity, he also had a great year on defense. Guillen needs to come through with that kind of effort in the field and a season closer to his second half numbers at the plate.