Editor's Note: This column originally ran on May 13 after Mike Dunleavy Jr. announced his decision to enter the NBA draft. Dunleavy announced Wednesday he would remain in the draft, foregoing his senior season at Duke.

DURHAM, N.C. -- Duke's Mike Dunleavy was nowhere to be found Saturday when he entered the NBA draft. No press conference, no conference call, just an email released by the university that, less than a year from now, could be seen as the most landscape-shifting event in the 2002-03 college basketball season.

Not just for Duke. Not just for the ACC. For college basketball.

	Mike Dunleavy has all the tools NBA scouts look for in a swingman.

There was no press conference in 1999, either, at least not for Duke underclassmen William Avery and Corey Maggette. They declared that spring for the NBA draft but, unlike sophomore teammate Elton Brand, didn't get the royal blue sendoff.

The loss of Brand was anticipated, even advised, by Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski. Brand was the national player of the year, the probable No. 1 overall pick and the son of a poor, single mother. If anyone should leave school early for the NBA, Brand was it. He got a press conference.

Avery got a statement issued by Duke, with a quote from Krzyzewski. Maggette got nothing.

Duke was supposed to suffer, see. Duke could replace Brand, but Brand and Avery? Brand and Avery -- and Maggette? Duke didn't seem likely to replace that, and Duke seemed miffed.

Three years later in Durham, some things are very much like 1999 all over again. But not all things.

Three Duke underclassmen have entered the NBA draft. One of them, national player of the year Jay (don't call me Jason) Williams, was a Brand-like no-brainer to go pro. Another, Carlos Boozer, isn't nearly as NBA-ready as Williams -- but he's about as ready as he's going to get, and like Williams, Boozer is in easy range of earning his bachelor's degree. The only surprise this time is Dunleavy, and not because he's making a bad decision. NBA scouts seem to agree Dunleavy will be picked in the top 10, perhaps the top five. He's got the game. But he's also got a family with plenty of money, he's always called himself "a four-year guy" and he's already been named co-captain for the 2002-03 team.

Then again ...

"It has always been my dream to play in the NBA," Dunleavy said in that Duke-released statement. "I want to exercise my right to see where I stand in this year's draft so that I can make an informed decision for myself and my family."

Dunleavy didn't get a press conference mainly because Dunleavy didn't want one. He laid low after the season, refusing interview requests and even spending a few post-exam days at the beach. For another thing, Dunleavy might not be ready to say goodbye just yet. He hasn't hired an agent and could pull out of the draft by June 19 and return for his senior season.

But if he does leave, Duke could experience in 2002-03 what everyone thought would happen in 1999-2000.

In 1999, in addition to the three underclassmen, Duke also bid adieu to All-American senior Trajan Langdon. Losing four players to the NBA draft was a first, but not the undoing of Duke as anticipated. A smattering of returning role players coupled with an awesome recruiting class enabled Duke, which was ranked as low as No. 18 in November 1999, to finish that regular season No. 1 in the country.

That freshman class had six recruits, led by three future stars: Williams, Boozer and Dunleavy.

	“	We're losing three All-American, so definitely we're losing a lot. Definitely we'll be a new team next year with new players. But I don't know if you want to say we're vulnerable. ”
		— Shavlik Randolph, Duke incoming freshman

Now, a new six-player freshman class comes to town, one that is being compared to Duke's 1999 haul as one of the greatest, and deepest, classes in college basketball history. Will this class do for the 2002-03 Blue Devils what that one did in 1999-2000?

Next year's preseason polls are likely to suggest the following answer: no. And next year's polls might be right.

Dunleavy would have been the preseason favorite for national player of the year. His presence, combined with senior forward Dahntay Jones, junior guard Chris Duhon, sophomore guard Daniel Ewing and all those fabulous freshmen, would have ensured Duke beginning the season in the top five nationally, and No. 1 in the ACC.

Now, if Dunleavy stays in the draft, the preseason national player of the year could be Arizona's Luke Walton or Jason Gardner, Boston College's Troy Bell or Kansas' Kirk Hinrich. Or someone else.

And if not Duke at No. 1, who knows? Michigan State looks good if Marcus Taylor pulls out of the NBA draft. Arizona looks good, period. So do Kansas and Florida.

Without Dunleavy, Duke doesn't look good. Not that good. Still, one of the Blue Devils' four incoming McDonald's All-Americans, 6-foot-9 Shavlik Randolph, hesitates to say Duke will drop too far.

"We're losing three All-American, so definitely we're losing a lot," Randolph said. "Definitely we'll be a new team next year with new players. But I don't know if you want to say we're vulnerable."

Even with Dunleavy back, Duke was only going to be one of many national favorites. In the ACC, though, Duke's dominance was going to be unquestioned in the preseason. Maryland won the national championship, but then lost its top four scorers. Wake Forest went to the NCAA Tournament, then graduated five seniors. N.C. State also reached the NCAA Tournament, but graduated its starting backcourt. With Dunleavy, Duke was the clear preseason No. 1.

Now it's not so clear. Maybe Maryland won't fall too swiftly after all. Maybe Wake Forest's freshman class -- not as talented as Duke's, but plenty talented, and just as deep -- will propel the Deacons toward the top. Maybe N.C. State, with eight of its top 10 players back, will overcome the losses of Anthony Grundy and Archie Miller.

Heck, maybe Georgia Tech makes the quantum leap from sub-.500 to the ACC penthouse thanks to consecutive recruiting bonanzas by coach Paul Hewitt. Maybe Virginia, if Roger Mason Jr. makes the right decision and pulls out of the NBA draft, stops underachieving for a change.

Maybe a lot of things. But definitely this: Duke will suffer without Dunleavy.

"It would be a big blow to us," Duke assistant Steve Wojciechowski told ESPN.com. "But we would adapt ... It would put a lot on our young kids' shoulders."

Some of those kids' shoulders are plenty wide. Along with Randolph, Duke's other incoming McDonald's All-Americans are 6-5 shooting guard J.J. Redick (the all-star game's MVP), 6-11 center Michael Thompson and 6-2 point guard Sean Dockery. And a fifth recruit, 6-9 power forward Shelden Williams of Midwest City, Okla., might be the best of them all. He didn't make the McDonald's game because he was suspended from his high school team after being investigated -- but never charged -- for assault.

Duke has been a No. 1 seed in each of the last five NCAA Tournaments. Four times the Blue Devils have ended the regular season ranked No. 1 overall. Could it happen again, next season? We're not saying it couldn't, but Duhon would have to show those scoring skills everyone has heard about for two years, Ewing and Jones would have to become more than role players, and three or four freshmen would have to make significant contributions.

Otherwise, the ACC and national picture won't have that familiar blue hue.

All because of an email sent Saturday afternoon.

Gregg Doyel covers college basketball for The Charlotte Observer and is a regular contributor for ESPN.com. He can be reached at gdoyel@charlotteobserver.com.