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| Friday, May 10 Updated: May 14, 9:19 PM ET Scouts say Dunleavy could change draft order By Andy Katz ESPN.com |
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Duke junior forward Mike Dunleavy can manipulate the draft lottery more than any other player as long as he decides to stay in the draft, NBA scouts told ESPN.com.
The 6-foot-9 Dunleavy made his official announcement that he will declare for the draft Saturday but not sign with an agent. Dunleavy is projected to go anywhere from No. 4 to 8 in the draft.
The deadline to declare for the draft was Sunday, while the NBA will unveil the lottery order (the first 13 picks) May 19 at halftime of one of the playoff games. Dunleavy has until June 19 to withdraw from the June 26 draft.
"There's no question that Mike Dunleavy is going to move people around in the lottery," an Eastern Conference NBA scout said. "He could affect players like Caron Butler (Connecticut), Qyntel Woods (Northeast Mississippi CC) and Jared Jeffries (Indiana). He could knock a guy like Jeffries out of the top 10."
Dunleavy makes the lottery even more tantalizing for teams that could land in the top five, like Denver, Cleveland or Houston, each of whom would covet him.
"He has put some intrigue into the draft and put question marks on Jeffries, Chris Wilcox, Dajuan Wagner and Butler," a Western Conference NBA scout said. "Because now if you're at No. 3 or No. 4 or No. 5, then suddenly you need to question who is the best three-man in the draft. Dunleavy adds another jewel in the draft."
Dunleavy is in a unique situation. He has the luxury of having more insight into the draft than any other player because of his father, Mike Sr., a former NBA coach. Money won't be an issue to fly to a few cities to work out for three or four lottery teams. To remain eligible, players have to pay the expenses to get to each workout.
And Dunleavy can control his own destiny in the draft. He can get a promise that he would be selected at a certain spot in this season's draft. He wouldn't have the luxury next season when he would be a senior.
"He has leverage," said Duke assistant coach Steve Wojciechowski on Friday. Wojciechowski was in Las Vegas at a Nike coaching clinic with coach Mike Krzyzewski, the first time the Hall of Fame Duke coach has been able to travel since having hip replacement surgery last month. "He told us this is something he needed to explore. We support him 100 percent in whatever he wants to do. He's got all the contacts with coach Dunleavy." "If Mike doesn't like the promise, he'll get then he'll go back," the Western Conference scout said. "By June 19, he would have gone through workouts and Mike Dunleavy (Sr.) will have talked to Houston, Memphis, Denver and the like. He'll have four possibilities and if he doesn't like half of them then he might not do it and just roll the dice next year. But he'll probably wait until the last hour to make the decision." Dunleavy's strong character makes him an even more tantalizing pick for a top five team. But he's not considered ready to contribute just yet, according to scouts. "He's got the fundamental base, can dribble, pass and shoot for his size," an Eastern Conference scout said. But he has to get stronger. Dunleavy, who averaged 17.4 points and 7.2 rebounds last season, was 225-230 pounds to start the season but ended at 210. He was worn out by the end of the Blue Devils Sweet 16 season and there is concern that the length of the NBA season would drain him. Duke plans to put Dunleavy back on the perimeter if he returns, allowing him to get better matchups at both ends. He had to go inside more often last season, especially when Carlos Boozer got in foul trouble. If Dunleavy returns, he would be the favorite for player of the year -- not just in the ACC, but also in the nation (Jason Gardner and Luke Walton right behind him). No team has ever had three players win the award three consecutive seasons. Shane Battier won it in 2001, Jay (formerly Jason) Williams won it last season. "It would be a big blow to us," Wojciechowski said. "He has been groomed to be a star and we expect him to be the marquee guy in the country. But we would adapt and make the most of it. It would put a lot on our young kids' shoulders." The Blue Devils are already bringing in six newcomers, five on scholarship and one recruited walk-on. Under the NCAA scholarship limitations, the Blue Devils can't bring in more than five signed, eligible players in a given recruiting season, no more than nine in two this season, no more than eight in two seasons beginning in 2003. Losing a player early to the NBA draft doesn't give a team any more scholarships above the maximum allowed in a given season. "We can't replace him unless someone knows of a walk-on who would be as good as Mike," Wojciechowski said. Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.
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