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| Friday, August 29 Updated: September 1, 6:01 PM ET Rams and Steelers should benefit from schedules By John Clayton ESPN.com |
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Dick Vermeil has been saying for years that schedule is everything in the NFL. The fortunes of so many teams are determined by the schedule they play. The tougher the schedule the tougher the chances of winning. His theory is simple. You don't have to have a winning record against wining teams to win a Super Bowl ring. The key is not playing a lot of winning teams. Each year, Vermeil gets his schedule and does some analysis to see what his chances are.
That's why turning around the Chiefs has been a little tougher than turning around the Rams. In the late 1990s, the NFC West was a crapshoot. The 49ers went through cap troubles, opening up the division to different teams each year. The AFC West has annually had two, three or four playoff contenders, making the schedule so much tougher. So in 1999, Vermeil's third season with the Rams, he parlayed one of the easiest schedules in NFL history into a Super Bowl. Heading into the season, the Rams had the third easiest schedule (a .454 winning percentage by opponents) in the league, the easiest in the NFL. Things got easier. The Rams faced only six teams with 8-8 records or better and went 3-3. Against the NFL's losers, they went 10-0. The scheduling idea came into prominence during the first Broncos Super Bowl season in 1997. They were 4-3 against winning teams, 8-1 against losing teams. The next year, the Broncos went to the Super Bowl by going 7-0 against losing teams, but they were so good that they were 7-2 against winning teams. There are plenty of current examples, too:
What's critical for a Super Bowl team is not playing more than eight or nine teams with 8-8 records or better. The reason is simple. Playing a winning team is like playing a playoff game. The challenge is emotionally draining. Injuries also become a factor. Watch a team's injury list after playing three or four consecutive games against winning teams. The list swells, and with the NFL expanded to 32 teams, depth can't accommodate injury lists that have six or seven inactive starters. NFL teams need breathers. It helps more if the easier games are division games because the good teams get to play that bad team twice. It's no wonder that the Titans, Jaguars and Steelers ended up with top playoff seeds for a few years when the expansion Cleveland Browns entered the league. Combine the Browns with the Bengals annual woes and those former AFC Central teams could count on four almost automatic victories. Remember four victories in a league that has 15 teams within a game of .500 can take a team from 9-7 to 11-5, and that usually earns a home game or two in the playoffs.
West is best in NFC For example, the Rams play only seven teams that were 8-8 teams or better last season in a schedule whose opponents winning percentage is .457, 28th in the league. The Cardinals and Seahawks have easier schedules (.443). Outside of division games, the Seahawks play only one wining team on the road, the Green Bay Packers. The Cardinals have a league low five games against winning teams, including two against the 49ers. The NFC West has the benefit of playing the NFC North, which had three losing teams last season, and the AFC North, which had two losing teams and a Cleveland Browns squad that may or may not be winners after firing all of their linebackers. When Vermeil stares at a schedule like that, he comes to two potential conclusions. The first place team in the NFC West should be the first or second seed in the NFC playoffs and the second place team should be the highest placed wildcard, the fifth seed. Let's say that Kurt Warner returns to his MVP form -- he did during the preseason. The Rams should roll through this schedule with 12 or 13 wins as long as they win at least five division games. The second place team -- whether it's the 49ers or Seahawks -- should pull out 10 or 11 victories. Another team aided by the schedule is the Packers, who have the league's 30th ranked schedule (a .449 percentage). The Packers were 5-1 in a division that produced 10-, 12- and 13-game losers last season. They have seven games this year against 8-8 teams or better, but only four of those teams made the playoffs. As long as they fix their defense, the Packers -- if they can handle their division teams -- should win 11 or 12. It will be tougher for the Eagles and Buccaneers to win 12 games this season. The Bucs, for example, play 10 games against 8-8 teams or better. The Eagles play 11. Anything over nine is dangerous because of the draining nature of the schedule. Having been to back-to-back NFC title games playing on easier schedules, the Eagles counted on having first-round playoff byes. The first-round byes last year allowed quarterbacks Donovan McNabb and Brad Johnson to recover from injuries that would have sidelined them had they played during the first week of the playoffs. Let's say the Eagles go 6-5 against teams with .500 or better records, which is reasonable and a bigger accomplishments than some would admit. They would have to win all five remaining games against losing teams to get to 11-5, and four of those games are against division rivals Washington and Dallas. It's more likely that the winners of the NFC South and NFC East could be 10- or 11-win teams and will be third or fourth seeds and will have to play during that wild-card week.
Steelers should benefit in AFC Vermeil knows this because he's in the AFC. Last year's Chiefs team played a dozen games against quality teams and came out with an 8-8 record. What gives him hope this year is that they are scheduled to play 10, and that includes a 9-7 Browns team that may not be a winner this fall. If the Chiefs can go 7-0 against losing teams, they can challenge the Raiders for the AFC West and maybe think Super Bowl. The scheduling advantage in the AFC goes to the AFC North and the Steelers and whoever ends up the winner of the AFC South. The Steelers are in an easy division for now. The Browns' defense is down. The Bengals are trying to improve from a 2-14 finish. The Ravens are good, but they will be trying to win with a rookie quarterback, Kyle Boller. The Steelers face only nine teams with 8-8 records or better this year, tying the Browns for an AFC low. Last year they had nine quality opponents (.500 or better) and underachieved by going 10-5-1. As long as they go 5-1 or 6-0 in the division, the Steelers should get a first-round bye and possibly 11 or 12 wins. The Titans or Colts face a more difficult schedule, each facing 11 quality opponents, but their advantage is if they can beat the Jaguars and Texans twice. The Jaguars and Texans were 1-5 in division play last season. Those four games against the Jags and Texans could be parlayed into a top seed in the AFC for the Colts or Titans. Face it, the Jets don't have a chance. They were in trouble even if Chad Pennington didn't break his left wrist. They face the league's toughest schedule -- a .541 opponents' winning percentage and a league-high 12 games against quality opponents. They won the division with only nine wins last year. Losing four key players to the Redskins in free agency drained their depth. A first-to-worst scenario is likely. Most coaches don't like to harp on the schedule because their jobs are to motivate and maintain confidence. Coaches with easy schedules worry about complacency. Coaches with hard schedules worry about depression. Having been through the easier schedules of the NFC West and the tough ones of the AFC West, Vermeil doesn't mind talking about it. It's reality. And the reality is that easy is better. John Clayton is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. |
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