The Detroit Lions finished the 2003 season with a 3-13 record, so by the laws of parity in the NFL they've got a totally cake schedule for 2004, right?

Uh, well…

"If you look at it," says Detroit President and CEO Matt Millen, "it's actually a pretty tough schedule. Under the old scheduling system there was a great advantage if you finished last. The new scheduling is not as pronounced as it has been."

Millen has a point. The Lions have Oakland, San Francisco, Denver and St. Louis, among others, on their schedule.

	“	If you look at it, it's actually a pretty tough schedule. Under the old scheduling system there was a great advantage if you finished last. The new scheduling is not as pronounced as it has been. ”
		— Matt Millen, Lions President and CEO on his team's schedule

Remember those 1999 St. Louis Rams? They were 4-12 in 1998, then turned around and, playing a last-place schedule, went 13-3 in the regular season and became Super Bowl champions in 1999. The New England Patriots went 5-11 in 2000, then playing a last-place schedule won 14 of 19 games on their way to the Super Bowl championship in 2001. Those teams had the benefit of playing four other last-place teams.

Today, last-place teams only get two last-place opponents on the schedule. As an example, the Carolina Panthers were 1-15 in 2001 and, though they had the biggest turnaround the NFL in 2002, plus-six, their record was merely 7-9.

Blame expansion and the NFL's balanced schedule.

When the Houston Texans came into being in 2002, the NFL welcomed its 32nd team -- a nice, even number. After realignment, the league had eight four-team divisions and the ability to make a schedule through 2009 that ensured that all teams would meet at least once in that span.

Consider the Lions' schedule this year. Like the other three teams in the NFC North, the Lions play the eight teams from the NFC West and AFC West -- a tough task, based on last year's results -- in addition to each of their NFC North rivals twice each. That adds up to 14 games, which leaves only two positional games. Because they finished last a year ago, the Lions play the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers, who both finished last in their respective divisions. By contrast, the first-place Green Bay Packers drew the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles.

Hmmmm.

So, which teams will leverage their last-place schedules into a breakthrough season? The odds of a big-time loser -- like the 1999 Rams and 2001 Patriots -- smashing its way into the Super Bowl seems unlikely. The Cincinnati Bengals (2-14), Lions (3-13), Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys (5-11) and even the Panthers (7-9) all face pressing issues.

The most likely candidates are a pair of 8-8 teams from the competitive AFC East and AFC West Divisions.

Buffalo, at 8-8, was last in the AFC East, while Kansas City was 8-8, last in the AFC West. Some experts feel they both have the opportunity to execute an instant replay of the Baltimore Ravens, who went 8-8 in 1999, then won SB XXXV the next year.

The funny thing? Because they both finished last, the Bills and Chiefs play each other in one of their two positional games. In the parity-leavened NFL, that Oct. 26 game could be the difference.

Greg Garber is a senior writer at ESPN.com.