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| Wednesday, February 14 | |||||
| AL young players to watch Special to ESPN.com | |||||
Two of the most common questions I get are: "What do you think player X will do for team Y this spring?" and "What young players should I pay attention to in spring training?"
Let's take a look at some young players on American League rosters. This is not a "best rookies" feature, but rather a glance at some of the players we should watch closely for one reason or another as spring training gets underway. Some of these guys are rookies; some of them are not; all of them are looking to prove something this spring.
The Angels are counting on both of these young pitchers to fill rotation spots in 2001. Both of them pitched well at times last year; both of them have histories of arm trouble. Anaheim needs both to produce if it wants to contend this year. If one goes down, that's a problem. If both fail, it's a disaster. Watch health reports this spring closely, in addition to their general performance and K/BB ratios. Based on their histories, Washburn is more likely to have some sort of annoying nagging problem that could cost him a week here or there, while Ortiz is less likely to get hurt, but more likely to suffer a catastrophic systems failure. Baltimore Orioles: Jerry Hairston Jr., Chris Richard, and Ryan Kohlmeier "Exciting young player" is not something generally associated with the Orioles. With Rule 5 pick Jay Gibbons lacking a clear shot at a roster spot, the two inexperienced hitters most likely to see playing time are Hairston and Richard. Hairston should start at second base; whether he is adequate or excellent will depend on how his bat develops. Richard proved he could hit for power last year, but 2001 will tell us if he can take the next step towards minor stardom, or settle in as a Paul Sorrento-type first baseman/DH: decent but not terrific. The latter is more likely. Much is riding on Kohlmeier's shoulders. Can he handle the closer role full-time? His minor-league record is good, but his poor 17/15 K/BB ratio in late-season action for the Orioles is a warning sign. My guess is that he will struggle, at least initially. Boston Red Sox: Tomo Ohka Counted on as a member of the rotation, Ohka will go a long way towards stabilizing the Boston staff behind Pedro. His 3.12 ERA is a better indicator of how he pitched last year than his 3-6 record, but his peripherals were more average. We shouldn't expect a sub-4.00 ERA in a full season, but 12 wins, a 4.50 ERA, and 190 useful innings are good bets. Chicago White Sox: Kip Wells and Jon Garland It is fashionable to praise Chicago's young pitching depth. The Sox are certainly counting on Wells and Garland to do their parts in 2001. Realistically, we should have some concerns. Both Wells and Garland struggled with their command rather severely last year; both had poor K/BB marks and awful ERAs. Long-term, both of these guys have bright futures. But both deserve close scrutiny this spring. Does their command improve? Will performance match potential? If I had to bet on one, I'd bet on Wells, but neither would get a big fantasy bid from this gambler. Cleveland Indians: Russ Branyan This ultimate all-or-nothing slugger will stick with the Indians provided he doesn't drive Charlie Manuel nuts this spring. He has enormous power, but tests the patience of his managers with constant strikeouts. Predictions are all over the board with this guy. STATS projects .248 BA, .334 OBP, .563 SLG. Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster projects .225 BA, .311 OBP, .494 SLG. I'm going to be optimistic and say .251 BA, .342 OBP, .554 SLG, but that's using the WAG method, and I've been wrong about him before, both positively and negatively. Detroit Tigers: Adam Bernero I rather like this guy; it's fun to root for undrafted free agents from Armstrong Atlantic State University. Bernero has a shot at the rotation, and given his proven ability to surpass expectations, it wouldn't surprise to see him develop into a Brian Moehler-type inning eater. Watch what he does in spring training, especially if his control numbers are good. Kansas City Royals: Dee Brown With Johnny Damon gone, the Royals will be looking for outfield help. Brown was a major disappointment in 2000, with a mediocre season at Triple-A Omaha, but a strong spring will quickly get him back in the club's good graces and likely into the lineup. He's a rookie-of-the-year candidate if his head is screwed on properly. Frankly, I'm looking for a big spring and a solid season. Minnesota Twins: Mark Redman and Matt Kinney Redman did good work for the Twins last summer. Another nice season will establish him as one of the better lefties in the league, making a nice combination with Brad Radke and Eric Milton. Will it happen? His biggest problem in the past has been lack of confidence; the question now is if he'll use his 2000 success to build his ego up, or will he press too much trying to recreate it? We'll see. Confidence has never been a problem for Kinney; control has. He has the best fastball on the Twins staff, and looked outstanding in the Arizona Fall League. If he keeps that in gear, and if Redman stays effective, they'll give the Twins one of the better starting rotations in the American League. New York Yankees: Nick Johnson and Adrian Hernandez Johnson is ticketed for Triple-A, unless an asteroid lands on Tino Martinez. But fantasy owners and prospect watchers will be scouring the box scores and stat sheets this spring, looking to see if the young first baseman is over the mysterious wrist injury that sidelined him all last season. Not being a doctor, I won't hazard a guess about his recovery, except to remind people that he was an exceptional hitter before the injury. Hernandez is one of several pitchers vying for a spot on the Yankee staff. He's the most polished candidate, has good stuff, and is reminiscent of Orlando Hernandez in more ways than just name and geographical origin. Oakland Athletics: Jose Ortiz Ortiz is being handed the second base job after the trade of Randy Velarde. He was the Pacific Coast League MVP, and statistically looks like a power-hitting middle infielder in the Tony Batista mode. His track record is a bit mixed; he usually struggles a bit in his first exposure at a new level. We should be conservative in our expectations for him. Look for a .280 average, 15 homers and 15 steals, rather than the monster numbers he put up for Sacramento. That's still good, and at age 23, he's just getting started. Seattle Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki Not exactly a youngster at age 27, but as a newcomer to North America, all eyes will be on him. He's got a career .353 average in Japan and owns seven Gold Gloves. He isn't likely to be a huge power hitter, but everyone expects him to hit at least .300. Even if you conservatively assume that Japanese baseball is equivalent to Triple-A (it's better than that), he still projects as a .330 hitter. Suzuki isn't A-Rod, but he could be Tony Gwynn. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Aubrey Huff The only people who've ever expressed doubts about Huff's bat seem to be the Devil Rays, but even they admit he's ready to hit in the majors after a strong August and September in the big leagues. The question now is where he'll play. He's trained at third base, but what about the carcass of Vinny Castilla? First base is inhabited by Fred McGriff. One solution that has been discussed is to move Huff to first and McGriff to DH, assuming that they can't trade Castilla to the Orioles or something. Texas Rangers: Ruben Mateo The Rangers went 44-66 after Mateo broke his leg last year. How will he recover? He's got star ability, and was doing quite well when he got hurt. A healthy Mateo will improve the Rangers both offensively and defensively, but he'll have to prove his health this spring. I expect he'll pick up right where he left off, but will never be an especially durable player. Toronto Blue Jays: Vernon Wells Wells is much the same story as Brown in Kansas City. He's got a world of ability, but struggled in a difficult 2000 Triple-A season. He may go back to Syracuse no matter what happens this spring, but a hot Grapefruit League will restore his luster. The Blue Jays still believe in him, but the sooner he gets the bat going, the quicker they'll clear a roster spot for him. John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook. | ALSO SEE NL young players to watch | ||||
