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| Wednesday, February 14 | |||||
| NL young players to watch Special to ESPN.com | |||||
Let's take a look at some young players on National League rosters. This is not a "best rookies" feature, but rather a glance at some of the players we should watch closely for one reason or another as spring training gets underway. Some of these guys are rookies; some of them are not; all of them are looking to prove something this spring.
Here's who to watch, what to look for, why it matters, and a somewhat educated guess as to what will happen.
Durazo's wrist is apparently healed. He hit .388 in the Mexican Winter League. Where does he play now that Mark Grace is on board? There is talk he will be moved to right field. If his bat is hot in spring training, and I expect it will be, they'll have to find a place for him in the lineup. Or at least they would if the Diamondbacks were a rational team. That remains to be seen. Atlanta Braves: Jason Marquis The pitching staff has got to start showing its age soon. When/if that happens in 2001, Marquis is one of the young pitchers poised to take advantage. He's certainly got the arm, so the question becomes one of command and confidence. Is he Kevin Millwood or Jason Schmidt? Spring training should help tell us. Chicago Cubs: Corey Patterson What, you were expecting thoughts on Alan Zinter? If Patterson has a good spring training, he could earn the center field job. Personally, I believe he needs at least half a season of Triple-A to get his plate discipline to acceptable standards. As I've written before, the Cubs will be taking a big risk if they rush this gem ahead of schedule. If Patterson plays a full season in the majors, he'll probably hit .250 or so, with 14-18 homers and 20 steals, but a low on-base percentage. Give him another year, and he'll improve those numbers. So why waste the year of service time? Summers are nice in Des Moines. Cincinnati Reds: Brady Clark One of my favorite unsung minor-league heroes, Clark could earn a bench job if he does well in camp. He is better than most reserve outfielders and a more complete player than many starters. The Reds won't be sorry if they give him a chance, and if Clark has a good spring, perhaps they will do so. Colorado Rockies: Ben Petrick No one doubts Petrick's bat, but there are still nagging concerns about his defensive skills behind the plate. Brent Mayne is still around as defensive backup and possible platoon partner if Petrick needs the help. If the youngster does well defensively in spring training, he should earn the everyday job, but if he struggles, he'll split at least some of the playing time with Mayne. Watch this one closely if you own either player in a fantasy league. Florida Marlins: Brad Penny and A.J. Burnett Like the White Sox, the Marlins are banking heavily on a young and talented pitching staff. Unfortunately, "young and talented" is not the same as "effective." Both Penny and Burnett flashed excellent ability last year, but both also had some injury woes and control trouble. The first sign of a breakthrough for either will be improved K/BB numbers. I think Penny is the better bet for long-term success, though that is a subjective judgment based on non-sabermetric factors. Houston Astros: Chris Truby Can Truby handle the third base chores? He has good power, but struggles to control the strike zone, especially against right-handers. A platoon with veteran Bill Spiers is a distinct likelihood, but if Truby has a blistering spring, he could change that plan. If Truby falls on his face, the Astros may look elsewhere. They've never seemed overly committed to him as a prospect, and at age 27, he doesn't have a tremendous upside. Los Angeles Dodgers: Eric Gagne Chan Ho Park and Darren Dreifort made progress learning how to use their excellent stuff last year. Can Gagne follow in their footsteps? The Dodgers need him in the back of the rotation, and he certainly has major-league stuff: 94-mph fastball, sharp curve and changeup. He showed good command in the minors, but had confidence troubles in the majors. He did better in the second half last year (4.66 ERA), so if he carries that into spring training, he could be a big surprise in '01. Milwaukee Brewers: Ben Sheets I've mentioned this before, but I can't help but harbor a little skepticism about Sheets' chance for immediate success. Yes, I know he's an Olympic Hero. Yes, he's got great stuff and a terrific attitude. But I look at a 59/31 K/BB ratio in 82 Triple-A innings, and I think "not quite ready for the majors yet." I'm ready to be proven wrong, and in the long run he should have a great career. I rate him very highly in my book this year. But for 2001 ... I'm not quite sure. Montreal Expos: Michael Barrett and Milton Bradley Barrett is a catcher now, moving behind the plate full-time thanks to the acquisition of Fernando Tatis. Hopefully a settled position will help him regain his stroke at the plate; the Expos jerked him around last year, and he took the confusion to the batting box with him too often. A good spring training will help him regain confidence, which took a beating in '00. Bradley looked like he needed more minor-league time during his 42-game exposure with the Expos last year, and it isn't out of the question that he could head back to Ottawa if he struggles this spring. On the other hand, Montreal gave Peter Bergeron a lot of slack last year, and Bradley has more natural talent. New York Mets: Timo Perez The Mets are betting they can get one more year out of their veteran-filled club. But if the dam breaks open a year too soon, there might not be much room upon the hill. Timo Perez will make the roster in '01, but how much playing time he earns is up in the air. If he blasts the ball this spring, he could earn a leadoff role and starting job in right field. Personally, I think he's better suited for a fourth outfield role. Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins Rollins is the shortstop, barring disaster. He hit .321 in 14 games last year, but looks more like a .260-.270 hitter at this stage of his career, albeit with some decent speed and gap power. A solid spring will solidify his place in the lineup and encourage the Phils to be patient with him when the inevitable rookie struggles come. Pittsburgh Pirates: Aramis Ramirez Quick, off the top of your head, tell me how old Ramirez is: 24? 25? Nope. He doesn't turn 23 until June 25. This should help put his struggles in perspective; he's got nothing left to prove in the minors. His biggest problem in the majors has been lack of plate discipline, but his strike zone judgment was very good in the minors, and he should be able to get it back. His strikeout rate was not bad last year (36 in 254 at-bats), so it's not like he is getting completely overmatched. I still think he's going to be a great player. St. Louis Cardinals: Rick Ankiel Cardinals fans and fantasy owners will be watching Ankiel like a hungry eagle eyeing a fat salmon in the river. Was his playoff control problem just an aberration? Or was it the first symptom of Steve Blass Disease? The Cardinals brass says they are not concerned, but that's just spin. A big sigh of relief will waft from the dugout as soon as Ankiel fires "Strike One" in a spring game. San Diego Padres: Brian Tollberg Tollberg is not a youngster at 28, but he's not exactly a proven commodity in the eyes of baseball people, either. He did exactly what his minor-league record said he could do last year, throw strikes and keep the Padres in games, but he still faces a challenge to prove to the skeptical that it wasn't a fluke. His main competitors for the rotation are Scott Karl and Jay Witasick. Tollberg doesn't have the best stuff of the group, but he does have the best command, and I expect him to keep his job. San Francisco Giants: Pedro Feliz Fresh off a 33-homer campaign in Triple-A, Feliz will battle Russ Davis for the third base job this spring. How good is Feliz? He is a right-handed power hitter with an adequate glove but poor strike zone judgment. Who does that sound like? Check his major league equivalency from STATS:
BA OBP SLG
Pedro Feliz 2000 MLE .262 .294 .475
Russ Davis career marks .256 .309 .442
The main difference between the two is that Feliz is younger and cheaper -- but unproven in a major-league environment. The Giants shouldn't expect huge numbers from whoever wins the job.
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 2001 Minor League Scouting Notebook.
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