ESPN Fantasy Projection: Every spring, timid drafters are scared away from Greinke, as his velocity is inevitably down and he gets knocked around. By season's end, someone less risk-averse is generally rewarded with an outstanding campaign. To wit, Greinke's ERA the past three seasons is 3.10 with a sparkling 1.04 WHIP, averaging 206 2/3 innings with 200 punchouts per season. On paper, there's no reason to expect a decline, other than age, as the veteran is 36 years old. Greinke's spin rates are tepid compared to the usual Astros hurlers, but the Houston coaching staff still should be beneficial, helping temper any age-related skills erosion. There will still be a contingent looking to avoid Greinke, preferring to be one year too early. Considering the positive team context and recent performance levels, the better approach is taking the discount, especially for fantasy managers who wait on pitching.