Welcome to our first trip of the season to Pocono Raceway. If you miss this one, I believe they go back there about three days later. But if you're free between 1-10 p.m. ET on Sunday, feel free to catch the race.

I kid because I love.

Despite the poor reputation Pocono has gotten over the years, I actually have a soft spot and stick up for the poor hunk of asphalt. Maybe I'm drawn to the uniqueness of the track, with three completely individual turns, inspired by three different tracks.

I don't know exactly why I stick up for poor Pocono, but I do know one thing: Denny Hamlin straight up owns the place.

You name a loop data category, Hamlin is the tops there. He's fastest in all conceivable speed situations, and his 119.2 career driver rating at the track is more than 13 points higher than any other driver. In fact, only three other drivers even have a rating over 100.

We know Hamlin's good there, but who else could contend?

Look for the Hendrick contingent to be strong. Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin rank second to fourth in average position dating to 2005 at Pocono. And in the most recent Pocono race run, Johnson and Gordon were 1-2 in fastest laps run, despite both finishing outside of the top five.

Martin, too, could be a non-statistical, sentimental pick. He's finished second six times in his career at Pocono, tying a Cup series record for second-place finishes at a track without a win there. He's tied with Bobby Allison at Martinsville, if you're curious. I know you are.

Want a flier? How about Kurt Busch? Taking the guy sixth in points may not be a long-shot pick, but if you listen to his radio early in the race, you'd think he's driving a covered wagon out there. And in true Oregon Trail style, I hope he doesn't get dysentery.

But Busch has shown he can be dominant at Pocono, twice putting up a rare perfect 150 driver rating at the track, in the fall 2005 and 2007 races. Since then, though, in six races, he's had a driver rating over 100 only once.

That being said, remember what I told you about how good Hamlin was at Pocono? Don't forget that. He's won 40 percent of his starts here. Among active drivers, only Tony Stewart at Watkins Glen has a higher winning percentage at a track.

The Eliminator: Pocono

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats, some by just picking names off the top of their heads.

I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. Every Pocono winner since 1996 who had previously raced at the track had a previous top-5 finish there (16 drivers eliminated, 28 remaining).

2. Thirteen of the past 14 Pocono winners finished in the top 12 in the most recent California race (16 eliminated, 12 remaining).

3. The past five Pocono winners finished in the top 10 in the previous two road course races (11 eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Juan Pablo Montoya.

What an odd NASCAR season it has been. We've had first-time winners in the two biggest races of the year, Trevor Bayne in the Daytona 500 and Regan Smith in the Southern 500.

The third "crown jewel" race, last week's 600-miler at Charlotte, saw a last-lap pass as Kevin Harvick beat Dale Earnhardt Jr. after NASCAR's most popular driver ran out of gas.

The driver with the most wins in the series thus far, Harvick, has won three times with nine combined laps led in those races (for more detail on this, see last Tuesday's blog).

But the overwhelming theme of the season has been drivers dominating races, but not coming away with the win. Only three of the 13 races we've run so far this season have been won by the driver leading the most laps.

Has it been a number of chance occurrences?

Or have we reached a state in NASCAR where having a fast car isn't any more important as fuel and tire strategy coupled with just having a car that can hang around the lead lap.

And even staying on the lead lap is overrated, as Harvick took a couple wavearounds before he won at Charlotte.

All those questions … but for now, let's talk Kansas.

Special K

There have been 179 drivers win a Cup Series race. Of those, 59 never won another Cup Series race. Well, cross Brad Keselowski off that list, the 120th driver to win multiple Cup races.

And if you had some déjà vu, you're not alone. Although the wins came with different teams and at different tracks, there was quite a bit in common.

In both races, Keselowski led only once. At Talladega in 2008, it was just one lap for Phoenix Racing. On Sunday at Kansas, it was a whopping nine for Penske Racing. And both times, Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished second.

Trivia break: Keselowski is the sixth driver to win a Cup race for Penske Racing. Who are the other five?

Burning Busch

You might not have known it by listening to Kurt Busch's in-car radio on the first lap, but he actually had a pretty solid car.

How solid? Well, I'm getting to it. He led 152 of the 267 laps, the most ever led in a Kansas race.

Unfortunately, Busch failed to win, coming home ninth and succumbing to the trend I talked about above.

Trivia break: Who previously held the record for most laps led in a Kansas race?

Odds, Ends And Junior

So many stats, so little space. So here we go. Bullet points!!!

• Dale Earnhardt Jr. got his fifth runner-up finish since his last win. The Cup record for second-place finishes between wins is eight, last accomplished by Jeff Gordon earlier this year.

• Denny Hamlin was third. He has four top-10s in his past five races, after having just one in his first eight.

• With his fifth-place finish, Jeff Gordon now has five straight top-5s at Kansas.

Trivia break: With Justin Allgaier's win at Chicago, he'll now look to become the first non-Cup regular to win twice in a Nationwide Series season since who?

Trivia Break Answers

(1) Mark Donohue, Bobby Allison, Rusty Wallace, Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch have also won for Penske.
(2) Mark Martin led 139 laps in 2005, and did end up winning that one.
(3) Brad Keselowski won multiple times in 2008 and 2009 running a partial Cup schedule.

I think Jimmie Johnson said it best when he told Kevin Harvick, "Hey Kevin Harvick, can I have my horseshoe back? Please?"

Well, he didn't say it per se, but he did tweet it, which is basically the same thing. (You can follow me at @MattWillisESPN. Do it!)

Anyway, that's in reference to Kevin Harvick saying last year that Jimmie Johnson has a golden horseshoe stuck somewhere uncomfortable. Well, Mr. Harvick, Jimmie's right, and now the horseshoe's in the other … well, you know.

Let's look at the numbers, since that's sort of my specialty. Harvick has won a Cup Series-high three races this season. But in those three wins, he's led only nine laps! And no more than six in any single race.

For the season, he has led 108 laps, the 12th-most in the series. But that's not all that's blowing me away about Harvick's performance.

Out Of Nowhere

Harvick has 17 career Cup Series wins, but he's done his best at making them dramatic. In six of those wins, Harvick led 10 or fewer laps, including in all three of his wins this season.

Well, in the NASCAR Cup Series modern era, which dates back to 1972, that's the second-most wins when leading 10 laps or fewer, behind only Dale Jarrett's eight.

And, when we look at wins in races in which a driver led six laps or fewer, which he did in all three 2011 wins, nobody has more such wins than Kevin Harvick's five.

Trivia break: Who is the only other driver with at least five wins when leading 10 laps or fewer?

Flair For the Dramatic

Looking for more evidence?

In this season and last, there have been five Cup races decided by a last-lap pass. Harvick has won three of those, and finished second in another, last fall at Talladega, when he was passed by teammate Clint Bowyer.

Three of those races actually took place at Talladega, the others were at Charlotte and California, and both of those were won by Harvick.

Trivia break: Besides Harvick and Bowyer, who else has won a race with a last-lap pass in the last two years?

Four Other Guys

In the mad scramble at the end of the race (sorry, Junior fans!), the field was greatly scrambled, leading to a top five with some unfamiliar names.

David Ragan was second, his best career finish. Joey Logano was third, his first top-five finish this year. Kurt Busch was fourth and A.J. Allmendinger fifth, both of their best finishes of the year.

Trivia break: Who is the only other driver to win with a last-lap pass at Charlotte?

Trivia Break Answers

(1) Jimmie Johnson has five wins when leading 10 laps or fewer.
(2) Johnson again, this spring at Talladega.
(3) Rounding out the trifecta, Johnson won the spring 2005 Charlotte race with a last-lap pass on Bobby Labonte.

Listen up, because I'm about to drop some knowledge on you.

I know Jimmie Johnson's six Charlotte wins make him a tempting fantasy play this weekend. But when you're picking your A-lister for Sunday evening, you should go with a guy who's never won at Charlotte.

Trust me on this one. I've got numerical evidence to support it!

So, Johnson has a sextet of Charlotte wins, but five of those came between 2003 and 2005. He had two runner-up finishes in 2006, and in the subsequent eight races, he has a single win, just one other top-5 finish and five finishes of 10th or worse.

Kyle Busch, on the other hand, is rocking a streak of seven straight finishes of eighth or better at Charlotte, with four top-three finishes in that span.

An explanation? I'm getting to it.

Last year, Busch's driver rating and number of fastest laps run were better in both Charlotte races than Johnson's marks in either of those races.

And this past fall, Busch had the best overall green-flag speed, but a win was not to be, as it went to Jamie McMurray.

But I know you want a sleeper, too, and I will deliver.

Joey Logano, in just four starts at Charlotte, has an average running position that ranks behind only Johnson's going back to 2005. He's averaging 68.5 quality passes per race, or nearly 20 more per race than what any other driver is averaging. Quality passes are green-flag passes inside the top 15 on the track.

So, don't let those early numbers sway you into picking Johnson. Or, maybe there is something behind those six wins?

The Eliminator: Charlotte

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats, some by just picking names off the top of their heads.

I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. Fifteen of the past 16 Charlotte winners had a previous top-10 finish at the track (15 drivers eliminated, 33 remaining).

2. The past 10 Sprint Cup Series winners this season finished 18th or better in their most recent race at the track (18 eliminated, 15 remaining).

3. Ten of the past 11 600-mile race winners at Charlotte finished in the top 20 in that season's Daytona 500 (seven eliminated, eight remaining).

4. The past five Charlotte winners finished 19th or better in the most recent Chicago and Kansas races (three eliminated, five remaining).

5. The past three Charlotte winners had a top-three finish in that season's Southern 500 (four eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Carl Edwards.

Greetings, my loyal minions! Come, rejoice with me, for this is All-Star weekend!

Of course, I'm counting on your loyalty to put me into the NASCAR blogger showdown. You'll get yours, Marty Smith!

Wait, that's not a real thing? It will be now!

Anyway, I thought All-Star weekend would be a good time to take a look back at the 11 races we've had so far and name some loop data all-stars, based, as always, on my own thoughts and opinions, and the numbers. I always consider the numbers.

The MVP

You'd think I'd like the points leader as the most impressive driver through this point of the season, but the numbers point to Kyle Busch, not Carl Edwards. And that doesn't even include Busch's royal beatdown of the Nationwide Series this season.

But the numbers speak for themselves. Let's start with driver rating, NASCAR's complicated and immense mathematical formula that'll shoot out a number that'll tell you who's the best in a situation. The number pretty quickly mirrors the NFL's passer rating. Anything over 100 is very good, and it maxes out at a perfect 150.

Kyle Busch's driver rating this season is a 112.9, which is 10 points higher than any other driver. There are only five other drivers who have a driver rating this season higher than 90.

It's Not All Good

So, how did Busch end up third in the points despite his gangbuster numbers? It's all about late-race issues.

Busch, along with the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, rank among the bottom seven in the most positions lost over the final 10 percent of races this season. Check out that list on the right!

Mr. Consistency

If I were to tell you a driver was ranked 12th in fastest laps run and 12th in average green-flag speed (16th in speed early in runs and 11th in speed late in runs), you'd probably think said driver was living outside the top 10 in points.

But I'll give you an "a-ha" moment and tell you that the above driver is Dale Earnhardt Jr., who has gained some much-needed consistency this season.

The key to Junior's success has been his ability to avoid trouble, run on the lead lap and gain positions as the race goes on.

No driver has run more laps on the lead lap this season than Junior, who's been on the lead lap for over 94 percent of the laps this season. Only two other drivers, Busch and Edwards, are over 90 percent.

Since we're not points racing this week, I'll skip my normal eliminator part of this column and just implore you to enjoy the racing. No points racing Saturday night, just going for mountains of cash.

Oh, decisions, decisions.

What to start my usual Tuesday blog with?

As much as I'd like to talk some Matt Kenseth winning at Dover, I feel like I can handle those notes in subsequent sections (I get 500 words after all, and I usually just go ahead and take 600 anyway).

I want to talk about the face of late-race strategy, which has dictated the past two winners.

Now, both deserved their victories. Regan Smith and Kenseth were both firmly inside the top 10 heading to the final pit stops, so they put themselves in position to win the race.

I'm a proponent of NASCAR being a team sport, from top to bottom. The driver is just a member of the team, albeit the most important cog, much like a quarterback.

However, you could take the greatest wheelman in the history of the sport (let's call him Cole Trickle), and he won't do a lick in the top series without quality equipment, a heady crew chief and a rock-solid pit crew.

So, to me, watching a dominant driver go down at the end of the day to a driver whose crew chief called for the big move, because their tire specialists figured out that the tires weren't wearing quickly, that's all part of the game, and I like it that way.

Welcome To The Club

Back to Kenseth, who became the 35th driver to win 20 Cup races, but took 411 starts to get there.

Only three other drivers took longer to get their 20th win: Ricky Rudd (621 starts), Terry Labonte (587) and Jeff Burton (480).

And following a 76-race winless streak, Kenseth has suddenly won two of the past five races, and is basically a lock to make the Chase.

Trivia Break: Who are the eight other drivers in Sunday's race who have already reached 20 wins?

Familiar Face

Before the pit call, it looked like Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson had the cars to beat. For Johnson, it was par for the course.

Johnson has led the most laps in each of the past five Dover races, only failing to lead more than half of the laps in one of those.

With just 19 Dover starts under his belt, Johnson is eighth in track history for Cup laps led with 1,829, and his career laps led per race is 96.3, trailing only David Pearson and Cale Yarborough.

Trivia Break: Who holds the record for most laps led at Dover?

The Value Of A "W"

Man, that word limit sneaks up on you. I'll make this quick.

Kyle Busch won the Camping World Truck Series race -- his 27th in the series -- at Dover for his 96th career NASCAR National Touring Series victory, which includes Cup, Nationwide and Trucks.

That tied him with Mark Martin for the fifth-most across the three series, and puts him one behind Darrell Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt for a tie for third.

The debate will continue about the value of Busch's wins compared to those of the aforementioned names on the list, and Richard Petty and David Pearson, the only drivers with more than 100.

Trivia Break: Busch is just one win away from tying which two drivers for second on the all-time Trucks wins list?

Trivia Break Answers

1) Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, Tony Stewart, Kurt Busch, Jeff Burton, Kyle Busch and Bobby Labonte all have 20 Cup wins.
2) Bobby Allison holds the record with 2,800 laps led at Dover.
3) Mike Skinner and Jack Sprague both have 28 wins.

If you're looking to my little corner of the Internet for some fantasy advice on this week's Dover race, you're in luck.

Regular readers of this here blog know I'm a big fan of Dover racing, and irregular readers of this blog now know, too. So, I'll give you a team I like, and a driver I love, for Sunday's monstrous race.

I like Roush Fenway Racing, and why wouldn't I? RFR is the class of the field right now, already getting wins from two of its four drivers, and another win from an affiliated team in the Wood Brothers.

Among the non-winners, Greg Biffle has three top-10s and a 15th in his past four races, moving him from 20th to 12th in the standings. David Ragan is having a redemption year, with his first top-5 since 2008 and already as many top-10s as all of last year.

But I like them even more at Dover. In the fall 2008 race, Roush finished 1-2-3, the only time it's been done at Dover, and it wouldn't shock me to see them do it again.

Biffle, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards are all among the top five here since 2005 in average running position (Biffle first, Kenseth second), fastest laps runs (Edwards first) and driver rating (all in top four).

And in every conceivable speed rank, none of those three are worse than seventh in any situation.

But I love Jimmie Johnson.

While those Roush Fenway boys are top seven in every speed situation, Johnson is the top one. He's the fastest driver at Dover since 2005 in overall speed, speed early in runs, speed late in runs, speed in traffic and speed on restarts. I miss anything?

He's only getting better, having won three of the past four Dover races with an average driver rating of 142.9 (150 is perfect, and he did that in 2009). He's averaged 106.8 fastest laps (out of a total of 400) in those races.

In the previous six races there, Johnson averaged a 95.8 driver rating and 16.2 fastest laps per race. Good numbers, but the other ones are staggering.

The Eliminator: Dover Edition

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats, some by just picking names off the top of their heads.

I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

And if you haven't been sold, consider my last four picks have finished first, sixth, first and second. Yeah, I'm winning my fantasy league.

1. Eleven of the past 12 Dover winners finished 16th or better in the previous Sprint Cup Series race (28 eliminated, 16 remaining).

2. The past nine winners this season finished 17th or better in the most recent race at that track (nine eliminated, seven remaining).

3. The past seven Dover winners finished 12th or better in the most recent Phoenix race (two eliminated, five remaining).

4. Five of the past six Dover winners finished in the top five in the previous New Hampshire race (four eliminated, one remaining).

5. Your winner: Denny Hamlin.

Sometimes, the circumstances dictate that I switch things up in my little blog here. Don't fret -- the regular format will return in due time.

But Saturday's race was so gigantic, I'll use my space this week to determine whether Regan Smith was the most unlikely winner in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series history.

What, you wanted me to statistically break down the Kevin Harvick-Kyle Busch feud? Not a whole lot of numbers to throw out there. Just some good, old-fashioned anger.

Despite the bizarre format, I still give you …

Trivia break! Who are the four other drivers to win for single-car teams since 2000?

The criteria

OK, so there are a few criteria to judge a long-shot winner. The first is longtime drivers who got a win after many races, such as Michael Waltrip or Sterling Marlin. But they had a degree of success already in their careers to stick around that long.

Another way is to look at drivers who came out of nowhere because it was early in their careers.

Maybe they weren't the most unlikely winners, because we didn't know what to expect from them that early in their careers. There are the upset restrictor-plate race winners, such as Brad Keselowski or Trevor Bayne, and drivers who inherited good rides, such as Jamie McMurray.

So, I'm going to focus on the drivers who have been around at least a couple of seasons and not had much success.

Trivia break! Who was the last driver to get his first career win at Darlington?

The breakdown

Smith was the 179th different driver to win a Cup series race. Of those, 145, or 81 percent, had a previous career top-5 finish. Smith's best career finish entering Darlington was seventh at this year's Daytona 500. Before that, he'd never had a top-10.

Of those 34 to never have a top-5 before their first win, only four had more than 20 career Cup series starts before their win: Smith, Elliott Sadler, Derrike Cope and Greg Sacks. Chart time!

Drivers To Win Their First Cup Race
(With more than 20 career starts and no top-5 finishes)
• Regan Smith -- 105 starts (best finish: seventh)
• Elliott Sadler -- 75 starts (seventh)
• Derrike Cope -- 72 starts (sixth)
• Greg Sacks -- 41 starts (sixth)

Of those four, Smith is only one to have one prior top-10 finish. Sadler had two, Sacks three and Cope five.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the most unlikely winner in series history.

Trivia break! Who was the last driver to win in the No. 78 car?

Trivia break answers

1. Bayne and Sadler (Wood Brothers), Keselowski (Phoenix Racing) and Ricky Craven (PPI Motorsports) were the others to win for single-car teams since 2000.

2. Lake Speed got his first win at Darlington in 1988.

3. Jim Paschal won three races in the 78 in 1955.

There's no doubting Jeff Gordon's accomplishments at Darlington Raceway. In 30 starts at the track, he has seven wins, the third most all time, trailing only David Pearson's 10 (in 47 starts) and Dale Earnhardt's nine (in 44 starts).

Plus, he's riding a streak of seven top-5 finishes at the Lady In Black, which is the fourth-longest streak ever there.

However, it's not even his personal-best streak at the Track Too Tough to Tame. In 1995-99, he had eight straight top-5s. That streak becomes more impressive when you consider all of those top-5s actually were top-3 finishes.

To summarize for the reader on the go, there have been four streaks of seven top-5s all time at Darlington, in 107 races, and Jeff Gordon has two of them.

The others? (You're dying to know, admit it.) Besides Pearson's track-record 10 straight, Jeff Burton had eight in a row in 1997-2000. But Burton hasn't had a top-5 there since.

In terms of the loop data I know you love, dating to the inception of loop data in 2005, no driver has a better driver rating or average running position than Gordon.

Over that time, Gordon's never had a race with a lower driver rating than 111. Anything over 100 is generally considered a very good race. Last year, Gordon hung up a 134.0 and led all drivers with a 3.2 average position and 69 fastest laps run.

But what kind of race Saturday night would favor Gordon? I'm glad you asked.

Gordon's going to need shorter green-flag runs down the stretch to win Saturday. In each of the past four races at Darlington, he's ranked fourth or better in speed early in a run, but no better than sixth in speed late in a run.

He's going to have to avoid falling back in the field, as well. Only once in the six races with loop data information has Gordon ranked better than 10th in speed in traffic.

With seven wins, you know Gordon can get it done, but that's how he can best get it done.

The Eliminator: Darlington Edition

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats, some by just picking names off the top of their heads.

I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win:

1. Since 1961, every Darlington winner has had a previous top-10 at the track (17 eliminated, 30 left).

2. The last 16 Darlington winners had a top-15 finish in the previous Cup series race (16 eliminated, 14 left).

3. The past eight Cup series winners this season had a top-15 finish in the most recent race at that track (eight eliminated, six left).

4. Seven of the last eight Darlington winners had a top-10 in the most recent Texas race (four eliminated, two left).

5. Eleven of the last 12 Darlington winners had at least five career Cup series wins (one eliminated, one left).

Your winner: Carl Edwards.