Rays counting on Percival to close out games, division

Updated: September 9, 2008

AP Photo/Winslow Townson

The Rays celebrate after Troy Percival saved a 5-4, come-from-behind win against the Red Sox.

EXPERIENCE HELPS PERCIVAL

Sometimes your confidence is dictated by what kind of options you have, and right now Rays manager Joe Maddon doesn't have any great options at closer other than Troy Percival. I think the thing they're leaning on is Percival's experience. The Rays have so many young players on their staff who haven't pitched in meaningful situations in September. Percival pitched in a meaningful spot on Tuesday. The Rays came from behind in the top of the ninth, then Percival made the one-run lead stand in the bottom of the ninth of a 5-4 win at Fenway Park. The victory allowed the Rays to remain in first place, pushing their lead to 1½ games in the American League East.

If you're a betting man, you're naturally going to lean on a guy who has been there and done that. You try to trust his stuff, his makeup, his experience and his presence late in games. There's no other inning like the ninth inning, and having been there before counts for more than a little.

Obviously, the math is strongly in the Rays' favor as far their playoff position. I think they'd love to win the division, but, at the same time, the big thing is that you grind like heck for eight months to get the chance to roll the dice in October. That's the priority.

Now, if Percival is having no success at all the final 10 days of the regular season, maybe you have to make a change then. I had a situation late in 1995 with John Wetteland, who was a great closer for the Yankees. He just couldn't get anybody out the last couple of weeks of the season, and we had to make some adjustments. As a manager, you need to watch what you tell Percival. I'm sure he's a very strong force in the clubhouse. I've got a feeling I know what Maddon is thinking on this. There are still going to be meaningful situations for everyone in the bullpen, and you need to be careful how you handle it. It all worked out Tuesday.

THESE RAYS STING

WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASEBALL

• Rays at Red Sox, 7:05 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Rays got their 19th last at-bat win on Tuesday, but this win against the Red Sox was their most significant of the season. It not only kept the Rays in first place in the AL East but also ended their nine-game losing streak at Fenway Park, and any aura of invincibility that Jonathan Papelbon may have had against them. Before Tuesday's ninth inning, the Rays had one hit in 15 at-bats against Papelbon this season.

Tampa Bay's trademark clutch play came through again, and now the Rays know that regardless of what happens Wednesday against Josh Beckett in the series finale, they leave Boston in first place.

Inside the Rays' ninth inning
Player Situation Noteworthy
Dan Johnson Game-tying homer First AB with Rays,
Dioner Navarro Go-ahead hit Entered AB 6-for-32 with one RBI in ninth inning this season
Fernando Perez Scored winning run First time Rays won a game he played (were 0-4)
Troy Percival Save Entered game with 8.40 career ERA at Fenway

Past Baseball Tonight Clubhouses: Sept. 8 | Sept. 7 | Sept. 4 | Sept. 3 | Sept. 2 | Sept. 1

FORWARD THINKING: WEDNESDAY

CC Sabathia • Red at Brewers, 2:05 p.m. ET: CC Sabathia (9-0, 1.42 ERA) starts have become appointment viewing. He is 9-0 since joining the Brewers, though it could be even better. In two of his past three starts, he has walked away with no-decisions despite giving up just two runs over 13 innings. The Brewers, however, won both games. Bronson Arroyo (14-10, 4.84 ERA) has been hot lately, winning his past four starts, allowing just five total runs in those four outings, which spanned 29 1/3 innings.

Josh Beckett • Rays at Red Sox, 7:05 p.m. ET: The Red Sox send Josh Beckett (12-9, 4.20 ERA) out for the series finale. He is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts this season against the Rays, who are hitting just .228 against Beckett. Andy Sonnanstine (13-7, 4.66 ERA) has run into trouble early in starts recently and has lasted more than six innings just once in four starts.

Roy Halladay • Blue Jays at White Sox, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN: Roy Halladay tries to keep the Blue Jays' hot streak going. Halladay himself is on a roll, having won his past five outings. He tossed 7 1/3 strong innings against the White Sox earlier this year in a 4-3 win. Mark Buehrle's (12-11, 3.98 ERA) record in the second half is improved (6-3 in second half, 6-8 in first half), but his ERA is worse (3.68 in first half, 4.60 in second half).

• Complete list of pitching probables for Wednesday's games

TOUCH 'EM ALL

Touch 'Em AllWho went deep? Keep track of all the home runs hit each day on "Baseball Tonight" and on the Baseball Tonight Clubhouse page.

Click here to find out who hit the longest home run. For more, check out the Home Run Tracker page.

NAME HR OPPPITCHER SITUATION
J. Cantu, Fla24PhiKendrickTop 2: 0-1, 1 Outs. 2 on.
C. Guzman, Was7NYMPerezTop 3: 0-0, 1 Outs. 1 on.
R. Church, NYM12WasLannanBot 3: 2-0, 1 Outs. None on.
B. Hawpe, Col24AtlCampilloTop 4: 1-1, 1 Outs. 1 on.
C. Delgado, NYM34WasLannanBot 3: 1-1, 2 Outs. 1 on.
M. Scutaro, Tor7CWSRichardTop 1: 2-1, 0 Outs. None on.
M. Jacobs, Fla32PhiHappTop 4: 0-1, 1 Outs. 1 on.
R. Howard, Phi41FlaDe La CruzBot 4: 1-0, 0 Outs. 1 on.
L. Berkman, Hou28PitOhlendorfBot 1: 2-1, 1 Outs. 2 on.
M. Olivo, KC12MinBlackburnTop 2: 0-1, 1 Outs. None on.
M. Lowell, Bos16TBKazmirBot 4: 0-1, 2 Outs. None on.
C. Ross, Fla21PhiHappTop 5: 0-1, 0 Outs. None on.
C. Iannetta, Col15AtlCampilloTop 7: 2-1, 1 Outs. None on.
S. Rolen, Tor9CWSRichardTop 5: 0-0, 0 Outs. 1 on.
J. Morneau, Min23KCBannisterBot 4: 0-2, 2 Outs. 1 on.
C. Beltran, NYM23WasManningBot 6: 2-0, 1 Outs. 1 on.
C. Delgado, NYM35WasManningBot 6: 1-0, 1 Outs. None on.
G. Atkins, Col19AtlGonzalezTop 9: 3-2, 0 Outs. None on.
A. Pujols, StL33ChCDempsterBot 6: 0-0, 0 Outs. 2 on.
E. Encarnacion, Cin25MilSuppanTop 6: 1-2, 1 Outs. 1 on.
J. Bruce, Cin17MilSuppanTop 6: 3-2, 1 Outs. None on.
J. Bay, Bos7TBWheelerBot 8: 1-1, 2 Outs. 1 on.
S. Pearce, Pit1HouWolfTop 7: 2-0, 1 Outs. None on.
D. Johnson, TB1BosPapelbonTop 9: 3-2, 0 Outs. None on.
V. Wells, Tor17CWSBroadwayTop 9: 0-0, 1 Outs. None on.
R. Durham, Mil5CinBurtonBot 7: 1-1, 1 Outs. 2 on.
A. Rodriguez, NYY33LAASantanaTop 6: 2-1, 0 Outs. 2 on.
M. Ramirez, LAD12SDLeBlancTop 6: 0-0, 0 Outs. None on.
J. Damon, NYY13LAASantanaTop 7: 1-0, 1 Outs. 1 on.
J. Damon, NYY14LAASpeierTop 9: 2-1, 1 Outs. None on.
C. Snyder, Ari15SFWilsonTop 9: 1-1, 0 Outs. 1 on.

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BBTN ON THE AIR: WEDNESDAY

TIME WHO'S ON?
10 p.m. ET
ESPN
Host: Karl Ravech
Analysts: John Kruk,
Fernando Vina, Steve Phillips, Peter Gammons
12 a.m. ET
ESPN
Host: Karl Ravech
Analysts: Steve Phillips,
Fernando Vina

BBTN MINUTE: RAYS GET BIG WIN IN BOSTON

CARPENTER CHANGING WORLDS

If he does end up closing games, I think the first thing Chris Carpenter will face is the adrenaline rush of the new responsibility. He'll be excited about just being active and healthy again, and knowing that the club thinks you're good enough that they'll put you in this role. Some people feed off that pressure, and I think as good a pitcher as Carpenter is, he'll do just that.

One of the biggest adjustments he'll have to make is to the distinct culture of the bullpen. Every team has its own culture, but the bullpen has its own subculture. And it can be quirky. Usually, the closer is the guy who runs the show out there, unless there is a class clown who naturally falls into it. Everything from where people sit, what subjects they talk about, who's near the phone, who enforces "let's pay attention to the game," who reads the scouting reports in what inning, and even stuff like do you spit the sunflower seeds or flick them. If you're chewing tobacco, can you spit on the floor, or do they have a little kitty litter box with sand in it? I know at one point the Yankees wanted to bring back John Wetteland, even though he could barely pitch, just because he was a great captain of the bullpen.

Carpenter will be going down to the bullpen not as a Cy Young Award winner but as the new closer. Maybe he'll convert the culture or maybe he'll blend into it. Sometimes, when they are in between starts, starters will go down and hang out in the bullpen -- but a lot of bullpens don't like that. They'd be like, "This is our territory, you're a starter, get out of here."

As far as game preparation, he's going to have to learn about warming up quickly and thinking about just getting one or two pitches ready.

I closed a few games in my career, and you have to learn to handle the adrenaline that you get when the game is possibly on the line with your very first pitch. It's a different feeling for a starter, who kind of works himself into the game, and if they give up a run, they figure they can pitch around it and be OK over six or seven innings. You don't have that as a reliever. Every pitch is make-or-break. It helps a little bit that Carpenter is a veteran, but it's mainly about having a pitch that batters will swing and miss at.

Kerry Wood has had some success this year. Wood had two pitches, a high fastball and a hard breaking ball. Carpenter, though, is not as much of a strikeout pitcher. Most of the time, closers are guys who can make you swing and miss.

As a starter, you usually can go to a higher gear if needed. For example, I pitched at about 85-90 percent of my ability, knowing that I could change speeds up or down. I didn't throw every pitch as hard as I could. As a reliever, you pretty much can throw hard, as long as you can hit the strike zone.

There is a long-term benefit to all this for Carpenter because he'll learn how to close out his own games. He'll get a better understanding of the pressure in late innings. As a starter, he might only pitch into the ninth inning two or three times a year, but closing he might get that many chances in a week, so he's going to have more to draw on going forward in his career when he'll, presumably, get back to starting games.

TUESDAY'S NOTEWORTHY PERFORMANCES

GOOD
Carlos Delgado• Carlos Delgado continues to make his case for NL MVP. Delgado went 3-for-3 with two more home runs in the Mets' 10-8 win over the Nationals.
BAD
Jonathan Papelbon• The Red Sox were in position to take over the top spot in AL East, holding a 4-3 lead in the ninth. But closer Jonathan Papelbon could not finish the job, giving up two runs in the top of the ninth as the Rays maintained first place with a 5-4 win.
UGLY
Kyle Kendrick• Kyle Kendrick was pounded by the Marlins. The Phillies' starter gave up six hits, seven runs, two walks and a homer in 1 1/3 innings, providing the Marlins enough of a cushion to hold on for a 10-8 win.

STAT OF THE DAY

Inside EdgeAccording to Inside Edge's scouting data, the league batting average is .296 on pitches in the strike zone, but only .140 on pitches that finish outside the zone. Five pitchers have defied the averages and accumulated an equal or higher BAA on their pitches out of the zone:

Batting avg. against (min. 600 total pitches)
Pitcher Not in zone In zone Total
Troy Percival .212 .171 .181
Jason Frasor .233 .195 .205
Steven Shell .208 .181 .185
Dustin Moseley .368 .348 .351
Francisco Liriano .228 .228 .228

FANTASY: PREVIEW OF WEDNESDAY'S GAMES

FantasySean Allen examines the pitching matchups in store for the 15 games on Wednesday's schedule.

Allen also looks at injuries and details player reports that could help shape the way you put together your roster for Wednesday. Daily Notes