One weekend, three playoff spots still up for grabs

ESPN.com

Updated: September 25, 2008

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport/US Presswire

Ryan Howard and the Phillies head into the season's final weekend looking to secure a playoff spot.

PLAYOFFS BERTHS UP FOR GRABS

By Mark Simon, ESPN Research

"FRIDAY NIGHT BASEBALL"
• Cubs at Brewers, 8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN

The final weekend of the season will not lack drama. Three teams in the National League -- the Phillies, Mets and Brewers -- are vying for two playoff spots and two teams in the AL Central -- the White Sox and Twins -- are fighting it out for the final spot in the AL.

A look at the weekend that will close the regular season -- and finish off the playoff puzzle … unless there needs to be a Monday playoff.

Cubs at Brewers

The Brewers have a chance to close the season in special fashion, but will have to beat their biggest nemesis this weekend to have a playoff chance. The Cubs' bats have hammered Brewers pitching this season, though Milwaukee may catch a break in that Chicago figures to rest some regulars to ready itself for its own playoff run. The Brewers just hope to give themselves a chance to have Sunday's game -- in which CC Sabathia will go out on three days rest one more time -- matter. Granted, Sabathia hasn't been great against the Cubs, going 0-1 with a 4.64 ERA in two starts.

Brewers pitching vs. Cubs
W-L 5-8
ERA 5.81
Opp. BA .287
BB per game 4.5

Marlins at Mets

The 2007 season ended with the Marlins celebrating a victory over the Mets, a win that eliminated New York from playoff contention. The Marlins will have a chance to make the same kind of impact this weekend, and figure to be fired up to play spoiler again. If there's one player who can stop that for the Mets it's David Wright, who has many big hits against the Marlins throughout his brief career.

David Wright vs. Marlins, past two seasons
BA .393
HRs 7
RBIs 25
Runs 31
Games 33

Nationals at Phillies

The Phillies can put away their second straight NL East title by handling the woeful Nationals this weekend. If Ryan Howard hits like he has throughout September, he may be enough to beat the Nationals by himself. Howard has a chance to become the player with the lowest batting average to win an MVP award, though you would never know he struggled this season by his performance this month.

Ryan Howard, past two seasons
September '07 September '08
BA .260 .342
HRs 11 10
RBIs 26 28
Strikeouts 29 18
Games 28 22

Indians at White Sox

The White Sox are back in their comfort zone to close the 2008 season. Chicago has dominated Cleveland at home this season, and the key has been the combination of pitching and power.

White Sox at home vs. Indians, 2008
W-L 6-0
Runs per game 5.3
BA .255
HRs 12
ERA 2.25

Royals at Twins

Justin Morneau is going to need some offensive support if the Twins hope to beat the Royals this weekend. Minnesota has beaten Kansas City 11 of 15 times this season, but two key bats have struggled against Royals pitching.

Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel have shown the ability to come up big when needed, and their offensive contributions figure to be key to the Twins chances of winning the AL Central.

Mauer, Kubel vs. Royals, 2008
Mauer Kubel
BA .179 .217
HRs 0 1
RBIs 7 6
Games 14 15

Past Baseball Tonight Clubhouses: Sept. 24 | Sept. 23 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 21 | Sept. 18 | Sept. 17


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BBTN MINUTE: WILD NIGHT OF BASEBALL

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RAIN, RAIN …

By Steve Phillips, ESPN

The weather the next few days could have both positive and negative impacts for the teams battling to get into the playoffs. Any cancellations could give pitching staffs some much needed rest. Some guys have been going on three days rest, so a day off could push them back to normal rest and help them to be more effective. Also, the bullpens could use the break, something they haven't had in a while. There may be some negatives in that you don't want to be playing doubleheaders; the perception certainly is that it can be tough to win both ends of a doubleheader.

Of the three teams jostling for two spots in the National League, I think the Phillies are positioned best. The Marlins were a big part of the Mets' collapse last year, and I think the Cubs -- whether they're playing all their starters or not -- are still one of the best teams in baseball. The Brewers will have their hands full. If I had to choose between the Cubs and Marlins, I would much rather play the Marlins. The Phillies had an off-day Thursday and are facing the Nationals, the worst team in the National League.

THURSDAY'S NOTEWORTHY PERFORMANCES

GOOD
Ryan Braun• Ryan Braun drilled a game-ending grand slam as the Brewers beat the Pirates, 5-1, in 10 innings. The win kept Milwaukee locked in a tie with the Mets for the NL wild-card lead.
BAD
Ricardo Rincon• The first pitch Mets reliever Ricardo Rincon threw Thursday night went for a three-run homer as the Cubs turned a 3-3 tie into a 6-3 lead in the seventh. Fortunately for Rincon, the Mets came back to win the game.
UGLY
• The White Sox scored six times in the fourth inning to take a 6-1 lead over the Twins. Chicago could not hold on and avoid the sweep, instead losing 7-6 in 10 innings as Minnesota took over first place in the AL Central.

STAT OF THE DAY

Inside EdgeAccording to Inside Edge's scouting data, offensive production against fastballs has declined around the league this season. Batting averages against fastballs are down, but power is even more so -- both well-hit averages and slugging percentages have seen major drops this season and are at their lowest since 2002. Here's a look at the numbers against fastballs over the past three years:

vs. fastballs
Year BA SLG Well-hit avg.
2008 .284 .449 .255
2007 .289 .458 .274
2006 .290 .471 .260

FANTASY: PREVIEW OF FRIDAY'S GAMES

Tristan Cockcroft examines the pitching matchups in store for the 15 games on Friday's schedule.

Tristan also looks at current injuries and details player reports that could help shape the way you put together your roster for Friday's games. Daily Notes

HUNT FOR OCTOBER

Here's the latest in the playoff races:

NL EAST
TEAM W-L GB POFF
Phillies 89-70 -- 95.3%
Mets 88-71 1.0 61.4%
AL CENTRAL
TEAM W-L GB POFF
Twins 87-72 -- 66.0%
White Sox 86-72 0.5 34.0%
NL WILD CARD
TEAM W-L GB POFF
Brewers 88-71 -- 43.3%
Mets 88-71 -- 61.4%

For more on the playoff races, see the Hunt for October