Jeff Hanisch/US Presswire

The Cubs' offense should produce now that Aramis Ramirez is back from the disabled list.

By John Kruk, ESPN

Who is destined for a second-half nosedive, who is waiting in the wings and who ultimately will remain standing come time for the autumn playoff push? With the All-Star break just a week away, let's take a look around the league at some of the tightest division races.

First up, there's the murky NL Central. I worry about the Brewers because of their pitching. They've talked about possibly grabbing a middle-of-the-road starter such as Doug Davis from Arizona, but they don't have any pitchers right now. Milwaukee has managed to win thanks to its great offense, but it is a surprise this team is still in this race.

The real problem with the Brewers (and Cardinals, too) is that they played well, probably better than everyone thought, but the Cubs are still there. They couldn't bury the Cubs. Chicago, despite its sluggish start, is going to be fine. Derrek Lee is starting to hit better and Aramis Ramirez is back from the disabled list, both of which should aid the Cubs in their quest for the division's top spot. They might have struggled for much of the season so far, but they're the best team in that division. And it's reasonable to expect their performance in the second half to be indicative of that.

Shifting to the NL East, the debate tends to concentrate mostly on the Phillies and the Mets, but the Marlins certainly have begun to force their way into the conversation. They're so explosive, with Hanley Ramirez leading the way. The only thing that's going to hurt them -- and it has hurt them in the past in this division -- is they don't defend well. And that'll kill you. Florida does have some power pitchers, who will strike opposing batters out and overcome some of that, but Dan Uggla and Ramirez commit a lot of errors up the middle.

If they can improve their fielding, and if Andrew Miller can pitch up to his potential, then the Marlins have the best pitching staff in the division. Easily. For now, though, Philadelphia is the best team in the NL East even though they haven't been able to pitch worth a darn recently.

Moving cross country to the AL West, it appears to be a two-team race between Texas and the Angels. The Rangers can score, their pitching is better than ever, their bullpen is really good and they're playing better defense this season. As for the Angels, Vladimir Guerrero is finally starting to swing it well, but their pitching has been a little shaky.

Ervin Santana hasn't pitched well even when he does take the mound, and he seems to fall on the DL after nearly every outing anyway. The Angels don't know what's left in that arm. John Lackey hasn't been as good as he can be, either, so they worry me. But there's no doubt, that's going to be a dogfight all year.

The AL Central is home to some disappointments. It's surprising that the White Sox are still struggling as much as they are, but their pitching is old and only getting older. Even offensively, with Jim Thome, Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye, the core of that lineup is old. Cleveland was predicted to accomplish great things again, but -- just as in the past three years -- the Indians have gotten off to a bad start. Look for them to make another second-half push that gets people excited and thinking World Series, but they just don't have what it takes to overtake the division's real powers.

Detroit and Minnesota are going to fight this out to the end. The Tigers' pitching is great, and they defend better now, too. They're solid up the middle; Brandon Inge is back at third base and playing Gold Glove-caliber ball; and Curtis Granderson is the leader of that outfield. When Carlos Guillen heals from a shoulder injury and retakes his DH spot, you're talking about some pretty good pop in the middle of that lineup. The Tigers are the best team in this division because they've got it all: They have the best pitching, they play great defense and they can hit it, too.

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TOUCH 'EM ALL

Who went deep? Keep track of all the home runs hit each day on "Baseball Tonight" and on the Baseball Tonight Clubhouse page.

For more, check out the Home Run Tracker page.

Home Run Tracker
NAME	HR	OPP	PITCHER	SITUATION
A. Rios, Tor	10	NYY	Pettitte	Top 3: 0-1, 2 Outs. 2 on.
E. Hinske, NYY	2	Tor	Romero	Bot 5: 2-2, 1 Outs. None on.
J. McDonald, Tor	1	NYY	Pettitte	Top 7: 3-2, 0 Outs. None on.
S. Victorino, Phi	6	Cin	Cueto	Bot 1: 1-1, 0 Outs. 1 on.
D. Lee, ChC	16	Atl	Jurrjens	Bot 1: 3-2, 1 Outs. 1 on.
G. Dobbs, Phi	5	Cin	Cueto	Bot 1: 2-0, 2 Outs. 1 on.
M. Thames, Det	7	KC	Meche	Bot 2: 2-2, 0 Outs. None on.

The complete list of Monday's homers

ON DECK: TUESDAY'S BEST MATCHUPS

Reds at Phillies, 7 p.m. ET

How will the Reds respond to the shellacking they endured Monday night, when starter Johnny Cueto did not get out of the first inning, recording only two outs but giving up nine runs in a game the Phillies led 16-1 after four innings? Aaron Harang will try to solve the problem and slow the Philadelphia offense.

Dodgers at Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET

Clayton Kershaw has given up only two runs over his past four starts, and both runs came in one outing, a win against Seattle. He was effectively wild in his most recent start; he pitched five shutout innings, gave up one hit and struck out five, but he also walked five batters.

Rangers at Angels, 10:05 p.m. ET

The last time John Lackey faced the Rangers, he wasn't around long. Two pitches, in fact. Lackey was tossed from his season debut after sailing the first pitch to Ian Kinsler over the leadoff man's head and depositing the second offering in his ribs.

For the rest of Tuesday's schedule, click here.