Tigers need to take Metrodome crowd out of game

ESPN.com

Updated: October 5, 2009

Keith Czechanski/Icon SMI

The Tigers need a big game from Miguel Cabrera, who has hit .307 vs. Minnesota in 2009.

By Steve Phillips, ESPN

All signs point to the Minnesota Twins having a major advantage Tuesday when they play the Tigers in the Metrodome for an AL Central Division one-game playoff. Most players will tell you that the Metrodome is one of the toughest stadiums for visiting teams.

The roof can be a factor in trying to see fly balls, and the noise factor is significantly in favor of the Twins. The crowd should be crazy now that the Twins have put themselves in a position to get to the playoffs. Plus, after the "Monday Night Football" game, with Brett Favre leading the Vikings over the Packers, Minnesota sports fans are already going to be worked up.

Scott Baker, a 15-game winner, is on the hill for the Twins against the Tigers' rookie right-hander, 20-year-old Rick Porcello. Baker is the ace of the Twins' staff and the guy they want in this situation, although he is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA against the Tigers this year.

For the Tigers, Porcello is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA against the Twins this year, but his two losses against the Twins have both come at the Metrodome in games in which he got knocked around significantly. Porcello has come a long way in his rookie season and should no longer be looked at as a rookie. He has matured quickly and is quite exceptional.

Other than Justin Verlander, he's the guy the Tigers want to pitch this game. Porcello has an outstanding sinker, which will be important because the Twins have erupted and have had significant home run production over the last several games. Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young have replaced the power lost due to the absence of Justin Morneau (back injury). In order to win, Porcello needs to keep the ball in the ballpark, and that's where his sinker comes into play.

The key for the Tigers will be to score early and often, to take the Metrodome crowd out of the game, and to give Porcello a margin for error so that he doesn't feel that he needs to be absolutely perfect.

I expect Tigers manager Jim Leyland to remind his team that in 2006 they faded down the stretch during the regular season but won the games they needed to in order to get to the playoffs and make a great run to the World Series. Miguel Cabrera is going to be the key to the Tigers' offense; they can't rely on Ryan Raburn, Curtis Granderson, and Magglio Ordonez to drive in the big runs. Cabrera is their best offensive player, and it's time for him to show it.

This game has a chance to be very exciting despite the fact that the odds are stacked against the Tigers. But I look for Porcello and the Tigers to pull off the upset and win the AL Central title.

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BBTN ON THE AIR: TUESDAY

TIME WHO'S ON?
12 a.m. ET
ESPN		 Host: Karl Ravech
Analysts: Peter Gammons, John Kruk, Eric Young

BBTN MINUTE: TIGERS-TWINS PREVIEW

SIMON SAYS

Simon Says ESPN researcher Mark Simon digs deep, looking for the night's best baseball numbers.

Today, he looks at the numbers among the managers in this year's postseason, excluding Jim Leyland and Ron Gardenhire.

Managing Just Fine
Combined Totals, 7 Managers in Postseason
Career Wins 8,121
Postseason App. 46 (includes 2009 for each)
Postseason W-L 197-148
WS titles 9

TIGERS, TWINS WEB GEMS

NUMBERS TO KNOW

Rick Porcello Rookie starter Rick Porcello takes the mound at the Metrodome on Tuesday trying to pitch the Tigers into the playoffs. He's faced the Twins four times in 2009, and the Tigers are 1-3, with Porcello losing both of his starts in Minnesota. In those two starts in the dome, he racked up a 6.30 ERA and lasted just 10 innings, allowing nine runs altogether and a home run in each game.

Rick Porcello (2009)
Vs. Twins Vs. Others
Opp. first-pitch BA .455 .231
Opp. first-pitch off-speed BA .667 .067
Fastball pct. 82.0 75.3
Opp. off-speed BA .438 .238
Off-speed K pct of PA 6.3 20.4

The key for Porcello on Tuesday will be sticking to his fastball (Twins hit .268, other teams hit .267 in '09), or mixing in his off-speed stuff more. He's thrown a fastball on nearly 80 percent of his first pitches against Minnesota this year, up from 71.7 percent against every other team.

-- ESPN Stats & Information