Even though they already held the No. 1 spot in FPI's rankings, the Eagles improved their FPI rating more than anyone else this week after blowing out the Cowboys. The ratings for the Chargers, Ravens, Vikings and Patriots also were upgraded by more than a point following their respective performances yesterday. Remember, FPI isn't describing what has happened but is rating team strength going forward.
The top four teams in last week's CFP Selection Committee Rankings remain the four most likely teams to finish with a top-4 Strength of Record.
According to our win probability model, the Saints had just a 0.2% chance of winning at their lowest point. That was at 1st and 10 at their own 45 with 4:42 in the 4th quarter. The Saints' win was the biggest comeback since last season's Super Bowl.
The Ravens earned a win today despite Joe Flacco recording a Total QBR of 21.1. Part of the reason why: Brett Hundley was even worse, earning a 19.4.
According to our live playoff probabilities, the Bills now have a 14% chance to reach the postseason. They had a 20% shot entering today. The live number includes current win probabilities but not changes to FPI ratings based on today's performances.
Though Wisconsin is undefeated, FPI believes there are seven teams with at least one loss that are better than the Badgers going forward. The model currently ranks Miami 12th. Remember, FPI is strictly rating a team's strength, not its resume.
After their dramatic comeback win over the Redskins, the Saints now have an 81% chance to win the NFC South. That includes today's results and current win probabilities but not changes to FPI ratings as a result of today's performances.
With about six minutes left in regulation, the Redskins had a 99.7% chance of winning today. They lost.
Our live playoff probabilities now give the Vikings an 82% chance to win the NFC North. This includes all current win probabilities but not changes to FPI as a result of today's performances.
Following the Mike Wallace touchdown that put the Ravens up 13-0 over the Packers, Baltimore now has a 63% chance to reach the playoffs. That's up from 54% before kickoff.
Dirk Koetter's decision to attempt a field goal -- rather than going for it -- on fourth-and-2 from the Dolphins' 12-yard line in the second quarter decreased the Bucs' chances of winning today by 1.5%, according to our win probability model.
Though he didn't score, Damien Williams' 69-yard run increased the Dolphins' win probability by 15%.
In terms of chance to reach the playoffs, no one has a higher leverage game this week than the Seahawks. Seattle takes on Atlanta on Monday Night Football.
Los Angeles is favored by 6.5 points over Buffalo, according to the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. FPI thinks that number is low and is expecting Los Angeles to win by almost two touchdowns.
The Bills are starting Nathan Peterman in a particularly high playoff leverage game today.
Right now two of the top four teams in Strength of Record are in the ACC. There's a 50% chance of that being true when it's time for the Playoff selection to be made, though that trails the chance of two SEC teams having a top-4 Strength of Record at 56%.
Not much of a surprise given the lack of major upsets yesterday, but there were no changes in the top nine spots in current Strength of Record. The one change on this list is that Oklahoma State fell off following its loss to Kansas State and was replaced by TCU in the No. 10 spot.
Following the Bills' decision make a change at starting quarterback from Tyrod Taylor to Nathan Peterman, FPI has dropped Buffalo's chance to reach the playoffs from 26% to 20%.
FPI projects the Bills to win about half a game less over its final seven contests with Nathan Peterman as their starter than if Tyrod Taylor has kept his job for the rest of the season.
From 2015-2017 Tyrod Taylor ranked 12th in Total QBR among quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts.
Though the 49ers and Giants each have just one win, San Francisco remains a fair bit more likely to earn the top pick in next year's draft. To no one's surprise, the Browns are heavy favorites to draft first overall in 2018.
After dominating the Bills on Sunday, the Saints have jumped just in front of the Eagles to top FPI's rankings. However, the Patriots are now the most likely team (18%) to win the Super Bowl, also narrowly taking that mantle from the Eagles.
Case Keenum recorded a Total QBR of 98.7 against the Redskins today. That's the second-best single-game Total QBR this season behind Deshaun Watson in Week 4 against the Titans.
According to our live playoff probabilities, the Titans have a 77% chance to reach the postseason but just a 27% shot to win the AFC South despite having the same 6-3 record as the Jaguars at the moment.
Though Georgia lost on Saturday, the Bulldogs still are more likely than not to have one of the four best resumes when it is time for Playoff decisions to be made.