Vegas, FPI disagree on Georgia/Mississippi State battle
FPI disagrees with Vegas on multiple Week 4 college football lines, including Saturday's intriguing Georgia/Mississippi State matchup. Here's where analytics and the sportsbooks diverge.
Preseason BPI reveal shows just how dominant the Warriors will be
To the surprise of no one, the Golden State Warriors are the team the preseason NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) identifies as the one to beat. The Warriors' biggest projected NBA title challenger comes from the East (and does not include LeBron).
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 3
The classic AFC West matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers will shift to the StubHub Center, where the (perhaps-less-than capacity?) crowd will be treated to what FPI projects as Week 3's highest-quality contest.
Predicting Week 4: Upsets and locks.
Mississippi State and Georgia headline college football's Week 4 slate, but a look inside the numbers can show which top 25 teams are on upset alert and which teams are sure bets to win.
Best Week 3 NFL Eliminator picks
Still in the hunt in your Eliminator contests after Week 2? We have your top three options to lock in as your Week 3 pick, as well as a team you should absolutely avoid this time around.
Updated NFL OTD leaderboard for Week 3
Our opportunity-adjusted touchdowns rankings tell you not only who's scoring, but who's getting the opportunities to score. Here we reveal our updated OTD table heading into Week 3.
NFL's best and worst QBs of Week 2
Tom Brady returned to his old self against the friendly Saints defense, while DeShone Kizer threw two costly fourth-quarter interceptions.
College football's best quarterbacks in Week 3
Plenty of big-name Power 5 quarterbacks had monster performances in Week 3, including Mason Rudolph, Jalen Hurts and Trace McSorley. But you might be surprised who leads this group: Wisconsin's Alex Hornibrook.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 2
A Gronk game-breaker. A dazzling scramble TD. A missed game-winning FG. These are the plays that swung Week 2 in the NFL.
The Patriots are back on top. After yielding the No. 1 spot in FPI's rankings for one week to the Chiefs, New England's dominating win over the Saints slid them back ahead of Kansas City.
The Panthers' field goal on 4th and goal from the 2, up 3 points in the 4th quarter, stands out as the biggest 4th down error of the week, losing 5% win probability based on the decision. Being up 6 with about 3 minutes to play merely invites the Bills to go for the TD and the win, rather than a FG to tie. And failing to convert wouldn't be so bad, leaving the Bills likely inside their own 2. Ultimately, it didn't cost the Panthers, as the Bills failed to score on their final drive.
The plays that changed everything on Saturday
From a Hail Mary being answered in Florida to overtime drama in Southern California, these are some of the biggest win probability swings from around the nation in college football.
The Cardinals completed the biggest comeback in terms of win probability so far in the young 2017 season. They had just a 3.2% chance of winning at their low-point: facing a 3rd and 20 at their own 18, down by 10 points in the 4th quarter.
NFL's best and worst QBs of Week 1
Sam Bradford torched the Saints for his highest Total QBR ever, while Andy Dalton made the wrong kind of history.
Your new FPI leader is ... the Chiefs?
The Kansas City Chiefs haven't reached the AFC Championship in 24 years and haven't played in a Super Bowl since the merger. By the early looks of it, the Football Power Index's Week 2 leader has a fighting chance to change that history.
Analytics expert says Jets' late punt an obvious mistake ... and explains why
Should the Jets have gone for it with four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter? The math says coach Todd Bowles blew it.
It's probably been awhile since this has been true: the Jacksonville Jaguars are now the AFC South favorites, according to FPI. Titans have second-best chance to win the division at 36%.
Andy Dalton's Week 1 performance was among worst ever
Andy Dalton's day against the Ravens in Week 1 placed him on a dubious list of all-time worst QBR performers. The silver lining? The list includes plenty of usually high achievers, including a future Hall of Famer who rebounded to win a Super Bowl.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 1
A game-sealing circus catch. A stunning 78-yard TD. An upset-averting sack. These are the plays that swung the NFL's opening weekend.
After last night's 19-3 win over the Giants, the Cowboys are now ranked third in the NFL by FPI.
The Seahawks cost themselves over 7% of win probability on 4th downs vs. the Packers: 3.5% on 4th and goal at the 3 in the 3rd quarter down by 4 points, 3.1% on 4th and 2 from the GB 42 scoreless in the 1st quarter, and 1.1% on 4th and 3 from their own 44 down by 8 in the 4th quarter.
The game-changing plays from a wild college football Saturday
From forced fumbles to big runs to key interceptions, these are some of the biggest win probability swings from Week 2 in college football.
Deshaun Watson wasn't great in his debut, posting a Total QBR of 40 in a half of action. But that was a lot better than Tom Savage, who recorded just a 7.1.
Projecting the 2017 NFL season, 1-32
Over/under picks. Bold predictions. NFL execs unfiltered. QB depth chart rankings. Go-to plays. It's all here for every NFL team.
Who's the best candidate to take down Patriots?
The 2017 New England Patriots are among the biggest Super Bowl favorites the usually parity-driven NFL has ever seen. Here are five teams with a realistic chance of flipping the script on the Pats' expected repeat.
Tale of the tape: 2007 Patriots vs. 2017 Patriots
Who would win in a theoretical matchup pitting the 16-0 Patriots from 2007 against the defending Super Bowl champion 2017 Patriots? Here are the position-by-position breakdowns, projected point spread and more.
Best Week 1 NFL Eliminator picks
Week 1 is always a tricky time for the Eliminator, and the start of 2017 reflects that trend. With the Patriots' loss, where else should you look?
NFL's risers, fallers, playoff picks and more: Mike Clay's 2017 projections
From the best and worst offenses to the toughest and easiest schedules, here's a breakdown of what to expect when the season kicks off Thursday.
The plays that changed everything on Saturday
From big runs to defensive gems to amazing catches, these are the plays that turned the tides in college football in Week 1.
Denver down, Carolina up? 8 bold predictions -- from ESPN's FPI
Will teams such as the Raiders and Patriots live up their 2017 preseason hype? ESPN's Football Power Index says "not quite." Seth Walder runs through eight bold predictions for the 2017 season.
Hot seat index: NFL coaches who won't withstand a bad 2017
It's never advisable for an NFL head coach to preside over a bad year, but some coaches would likely get a mulligan if it happens in 2017. The data says these guys, on the other hand, almost certainly wouldn't.
Crunching the numbers on college football's best home-field advantages
In ESPN The Magazine's NFL Preview Issue, Brad Edwards and Seth Walder identify which college football venues are the toughest for visitors. Louisiana Tech was among the programs that made a surprise strong showing.
FPI says 2017 Jets are worse than 2016 Browns
ESPN's Football Power Index projects the New York Jets to be even worse than last season's 15-loss Cleveland Browns.
The best (and worst) NFL QBs at everything
Matt Ryan was the NFL MVP in 2016, but he didn't lead in all of Football Outsiders' advanced metrics, including adjusted completion percentage, ALEX and expected points added. Get the best and worst at each metric here.
2017 NFL QB Tier Rankings
A panel of 50 NFL coaches and executives ranked 36 QBs into five tiers. Only two passers were unanimous Tier 1 selections.
The happiest -- and most miserable -- college football fan bases
Introducing the Fan Happiness Index, which uses data to gauge the fan sentiment at 128 FBS programs.
The NFL's real highest-paid quarterbacks
Derek Carr's latest contract continued a streak of staggering NFL deals, but just looking at the announced dollars is not the way to judge the impact of a contract. Factoring in a rising salary cap, here are the NFL's real highest-paid quarterbacks.
QB Hope Index: Predicting star potential for young passers
Dak Prescott was No. 3 in the NFL in Total QBR in 2016. But after accounting for historical data on draft position, early-career performance and roster status, two other young passers have a better chance of being franchise QBs.
WNBA BPI: Upcoming games will determine Mystics' playoff road
The WNBA Basketball Power Index examines how tough it might be for Washington to get a first-round bye -- and whether Seattle or Chicago has the inside track at the eighth and final playoff berth.
Bol Bol and others whose summer numbers predict college hoops success
The summer evaluation period has ended, and these players saw their college stock soar after distinguishing themselves with strong numbers.
If there's a lock for the College Football Playoff, it's Ohio State (not Alabama)
Alabama is expected to open the season No. 1 and might very well be No. 1 after the College Football Playoff is settled. But FPI says Ohio State will have the easiest time getting to the postseason, thanks to the Buckeyes' schedule and returning talent.
$10 million Jay Cutler vs. Matt Moore: FPI shows they're nearly identical
Jay Cutler just cost the Dolphins a boatload of money on a one-year deal, but the data shows Matt Moore -- Ryan Tannehill's backup -- is just as capable and maybe even better.
Fantasy owners beware: NBA superteam stars carry major risk
The rise of the NBA superteam presents a quandary for fantasy players. Are you better off with the best players on the best teams, or the stars who run the whole show themselves?
NFL's top 25 'prospects' who could break out
They're young, they need reps ... and now they're about to get them. Here's the annual ranking of the NFL's top 25 breakout prospects from Football Outsiders.
FPI says Rams with Goff are awful, but improvement is conceivable
Jared Goff posted a historically poor performance as a rookie, albeit in a limited sample. With FPI predicting that the Rams would be better off with Sean Mannion (13 career pass attempts) under center in 2017, is there any hope for L.A. fans?
Surprise! Experienced Wichita State tops summer BPI update
The Wichita State Shockers were a 10-seed in the 2017 NCAA tournament, but the latest version of the Basketball Power Index says Gregg Marshall's experienced and talented team should be aiming much higher in 2017-18.
Where FPI and Vegas disagree on college football win totals
Will Sam Darnold and the USC Trojans win double-digit games this season? Las Vegas bookmakers and our analytics disagree. Here are some of the most notable outliers when comparing FPI to season win totals.
NFL coaches skeptical of chip-generated game-day data
Using GPS chips to track a player's health is one thing. But using the data gleaned from those chips has yet to convince coaches such as Seattle's Pete Carroll that it can help them win games -- and that's a sticking point.
Best NFL QB seasons of past 30 years: Where Manning, Brady rank
Tom Brady threw for 50 touchdowns for the 2007 Patriots, but does it add up to the best QB season of the past 30 years? Football Outsiders ranks the top 10 individual seasons.
NCAA selection changes a good step, but also a half-measure
The NCAA's announced move to emphasize quality road wins in its March Madness selection process makes sense. But the system still has flaws, and potential NCAA tournament candidates could pay the price in 2018.