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Predicting Week 4: Upsets and locks.

Mississippi State and Georgia headline college football's Week 4 slate, but a look inside the numbers can show which top 25 teams are on upset alert and which teams are sure bets to win.

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The Panthers' field goal on 4th and goal from the 2, up 3 points in the 4th quarter, stands out as the biggest 4th down error of the week, losing 5% win probability based on the decision. Being up 6 with about 3 minutes to play merely invites the Bills to go for the TD and the win, rather than a FG to tie. And failing to convert wouldn't be so bad, leaving the Bills likely inside their own 2. Ultimately, it didn't cost the Panthers, as the Bills failed to score on their final drive.

Brian Burke, ESPN Analytics

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