There's an odd sentiment in the baseball world, both real-life and fantasy, that Los Angeles Dodgers manager Don Mattingly is nuts to have already proclaimed relatively ordinary right-hander Brandon League as his closer, while strikeout machine Kenley Jansen, clearly his superior statistically, settles for the eighth-inning work. Well, those in the fantasy baseball world really desire the saves, so by that measure, one would think League would end up more in demand ... but that's not likely to be the case.
In fact, check the ESPN Fantasy rankings and you will see Jansen has considerably better placement. I've participated in numerous drafts already, and Jansen is consistently being selected earlier, while League actually went undrafted once! I can't make any reasonable case that League is the better pitcher, but which one is more likely to get 30 saves? I think it's League, and that's why I'll be drafting him earlier.
First, to Mattingly's decision, it does, in fairness, have financial- and health-related overtones. League was recently awarded what many baseball observers would call a foolish three-year contract extension worth more than $22 million. Knowing turnover/health rates not only among closers but all relief pitchers, the most erratic and problematic of positions to forecast each season, that's a lot of money. Jansen doesn't earn that, despite a two-year run of historic strikeout rates for a reliever and 25 saves in 2012. Oh yeah, and Jansen had offseason surgery to correct a heart problem, too, which likely factors in.
Look around baseball and you'll see that the Dodgers aren't the only team likely to start April with something other than their top relief pitcher in the closer role, and that's just fine with me. You know what? The eighth inning matters quite a bit as well. Just ask Philadelphia Phillies fans, forced to see myriad leads evaporate in the late innings (but generally not the ninth) last year. Jonathan Papelbon should have had 10 more save opportunities, if not more. He was used ridiculously wrong by his manager, but the Phillies lacked competent setup men.
Jansen is an extremely competent setup man, perhaps the best in the game. And that's OK. I'm not necessarily applauding Mattingly and his decision, because I just want to know who the closer is for statistical and value purposes so I can share it with all of you, but it's not a terrible decision. In fact, Jansen's presence in the eighth inning makes me like League more. I also like Papelbon more with proven Mike Adams in the eighth-inning role for Philly this season. In theory, that means more leads to protect.
When the top 25 or so closers go off the draft board, no matter the format, fantasy owners need to decide what to focus on for the final few spots on a pitching staff or a bench as potential fill-ins. Jansen is a potential monster; while I tend to ignore saves until well after the 10th round or so, I acknowledge how much of a difference strikeout and run prevention kings like Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and whomever fashions the next ridiculously unpredictable Fernando Rodney campaign can be. I focus on the saves. Most people think Jansen will pitch so much better than League that it will force Mattingly to switch their roles.
Well, I think League is getting 30 saves with a usable ERA and WHIP, which probably means he'll end up on several of my teams as a late-round pick. He's a competent relief pitcher, though hardly ideal for closing due to modest strikeout rates and the fact that left-handed hitters aren't too scared to face him, or so the statistics suggest. Colleague Dave Cameron discussed why Detroit Tigers rookie Bruce Rondon is doomed to fail, and he certainly might be right. League is certainly not an ideal closer.
But in a world where just about anyone can save 30 games if they're presented an opportunity -- in 2011 alone, League, Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos and Juan Carlos Oviedo (the former Leo Nunez) all accomplished this, and look at those guys now -- I don't see why League is such a bad risk in the 20th round. To me, he's certainly in a similar rankings neighborhood as the likes of Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jason Grilli, Miami Marlins right-hander Steve Cishek and a pair of Los Angeles Angels question marks in Ryan Madson and Ernesto Frieri. Grilli has five career saves. This is a safe closing option just because his manager has exalted him to the role? I don't think so.
Jansen is certainly worth selecting in 10-team standard formats as well, but again, pinpoint what your needs are. We often preach to draft skills, not roles, and that would unequivocally highlight Jansen, who has a career 2.22 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 14.6 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate, over League. I'm not looking solely for dominant arms late in drafts, but often for pure saves, even if they come with average supporting stats as well. I think it's certainly possible League, Carlos Marmol, Grilli, Cishek, Glen Perkins, Tom Wilhelmsen and perhaps Jonathan Broxton and Chris Perez lose closing roles to Jansen, Kyuji Fujikawa (Cubs), Mark Melancon (Pirates), Jon Rauch (Marlins), Jared Burton (Twins), Carter Capps (Mariners), Chapman (Reds) and Vinnie Pestano (Indians), respectively, so League does have company. Just take a look his way late if you need the saves, because I think he's going to get plenty of them, and be prepared for Jansen to have another dominant season, albeit one perhaps lacking the one category you really need from him.
Weekend wrap: Do not pay close attention to which pitchers get random save chances in spring training games. Entering Monday, those players with saves included Matt Buschmann (Rays), Robert Delaney and Adam Russell (Orioles). Rodney and Jim Johnson need not worry. ... Then again, Red Sox personnel raved about young right-hander Rubby De La Rosa, who hit triple digits on the radar gun while saving Sunday's win and could end up in the bullpen. I want De La Rosa in an AL-only format for his upside, regardless of role. ... New York Mets right-hander Bobby Parnell mowed down the Washington Nationals for a weekend save, throwing all seven of his pitches for strikes. With brittle Frank Francisco unlikely to be ready for April, and effectiveness always in question, Parnell really should be considered in the Nos. 25-32 relievers range, like Grilli, Cishek and others, as a standard-league, late-rounder. ... The Angels' Madson boasts a top-20 relief pitcher ranking from ESPN Fantasy, but he's likely to start April on the disabled list as he returns from Tommy John surgery. I think Madson will save more games than Frieri in 2013, but as in the Jansen/League situation, you shouldn't ignore the other guy.
