Let's face it, numbers can be confusing or just downright misleading from time to time. Ever try doing your taxes, or know what a fractal is?

This is where I come to do my service, trying to go inside the numbers where they might do a great job themselves. You want examples, you got examples. Otherwise what I've written wouldn't make any sense.

Carl Edwards has three wins at Texas, more than any other active driver at the track. But, other than those wins, his success at Texas has been limited, a boom-or-bust scenario.

His next two best finishes at Texas are a third and a 10th. He has more finishes of 15th or worse there than he does finishes better than 15th.

Digging deeper, Edwards swept at Texas in 2008, averaging a 143.3 driver rating. In the five races since, just a 92.0.

He also ran the fastest lap 167 times in those two 2008 races, but in the next five races, only 34. This chart will give you what you need.

Tony Stewart, on the flip side, has just the one win in his career at Texas, but has shown a lot more consistency than Edwards at the track, and has frankly been better over the past five races there.

Remember those numbers for Edwards in the 2009-11 period? Stewart has them all trumped, with a driver rating more than 10 points higher, a +21 pass differential and 91 fastest laps run.

To me, an important number is eight. Roush Fenway Racing has won eight of the 21 races at Texas, more than twice as many as any other team. Plus, it gave Matt Kenseth a rocket at this race and at the similar track in Charlotte just a few weeks ago.

On the other hand, a Hendrick-powered team (Stewart gets Hendrick engines) has only won one of the past seven races there, when Jeff Gordon finished first in the spring 2009 race.

So if Edwards can get on the same page as Kenseth was for the spring race, he could take another step to getting that elusive first Cup title.

The Eliminator: Texas

Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking a name off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

Plus, in the spring Texas race, I had Kenseth winning this deal, and the Eliminator didn't let me down.

1. All six winners of the fall Texas race had won earlier in the season (31 drivers eliminated, 17 remaining).
2. Eight of the past nine Texas winners had a previous top-two finish at Texas (8 eliminated, 9 remaining).
3. Twelve of the past 13 Texas winners finished ninth or better in the last California race of the season (4 eliminated, 5 remaining).
4. Five of the past six Texas winners finished first or second in the last Texas race of the season (3 eliminated, 2 remaining).
5. The past 10 Texas winners had at least nine prior Cup wins (one eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Matt Kenseth

To those sitting around me in Bristol, Conn., today, it might appear that I'm struggling with this blog, fighting to find the perfect word to keep my readers spellbound.

Actually, I'm just hanging out at work because I'm still without heat and power at my place in Bristol. Me and 700,000 others in Connecticut.

So, it doesn't bother me that we had close to a four-hour race Sunday, especially given that those 3 hours, 49 minutes and 52 seconds were just jam-packed with action.

And it was old-fashioned short-track beatin' and bangin'. Some people are afraid of ghouls and goblins on Halloween; I'll be looking over my shoulder to see whether Brian Vickers is behind me on the highway.

Late-race incidents may have cost both Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski their shot at a championship. Even Jamie McMurray was seeking revenge during the race, somehow having the power -- even without a battery -- to hit Vickers' door.

But through the smoke, Tony Stewart recovered from nearly going a lap down to win and move to second in the points, while Carl Edwards recovered from what looked like a disastrous day to stay atop the Chase standings.

More on that now ...

Lucky No. 14

Stewart entered the Chase winless, and his comments after the August race at Michigan were pessimistic at best.

How quickly winning three of seven races can change things.

With Sunday's win at Martinsville, Stewart has won three races in a single Chase for the second time -- the other came in 2006, when he was not a Chaser. The other two drivers to win three races in a single Chase: Jimmie Johnson and Edwards.

Stewart's numbers through seven races are right there with the numbers from his 2005 title season: five top-10s in each, and an 8.3 average finish this season, compared to 8.9 in 2005 through seven races.

The big difference? Wins. He didn't win a single race during the 2005 Chase.

Trivia break! Who are the only two owner/drivers to win Cup championships since 1972?

Cue the Carl

On the other end of the spectrum is Edwards, who is getting it done in this Chase courtesy of consistency.

Edwards has 23 top-10s through 33 races this season. There have been six instances of drivers with at least 25 top-10s in a season since the Chase started in 2004, but all but one failed to win the title -- Stewart in 2005.

Edwards has one win this season. If he fails to win again but wins the title, he'd be the fifth driver to win a title with a single win but only the third to do so in the modern era (since 1972).

Trivia break! Who are the two drivers to win a Cup title since 1972 with one win?

Names I don't often mention

I like to give credit where credit is due and give some acknowledgment for performances others might overlook -- lightning-round style!

• Jeff Burton finished sixth a week after finishing second. In the first 31 races this season, Burton had one top-10, a ninth at Watkins Glen.

• Casey Mears finished 12th for Germain Racing, tied for the second-best finish in that team's history, and Mears' best in more than two years.

• Travis Kvapil finished 16th, his best finish since the 2008 season finale.

Trivia break! Who was Kvapil driving for in 2008?

Power Rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I came up with a nerdy formula, using recent performance along with recent performance at the respective tracks, to predict who'll be strong in the next race.

Here are my Chase power rankings for Texas:

1. Matt Kenseth
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Kyle Busch
4. Tony Stewart
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Carl Edwards
7. Kurt Busch
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Jeff Gordon
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Ryan Newman
12. Brad Keselowski

Trivia break answers

1. Richard Petty (four times) and Alan Kulwicki.

2. Kenseth (2003) and Benny Parsons (1973).

3. Kvapil drove for Yates Racing.

OK, kids, gather around close. Not too close, though.

I want to talk today about which of these championship contenders has a favorable schedule heading down the stretch.

Now, forgive me in advance, but I'm going to halt the talk at the top five, the drivers who can realistically be leading the points heading out of Martinsville. I'm not going to say that Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson are 100 percent out of the mix yet, but I'm going to wait for them to sniff the lead a little bit more closely to include them in the discussion.

Looking at the top five's driver ratings dating back to 2005 at these tracks, we could be ready for Tony Stewart to make a run.

Stewart's driver rating at Martinsville and Texas, the next two races, rank in the top four among all drivers. He could be right in the mix going to the final two races.

But it's not all sunshine, rainbows and happiness for Stewart. Earlier this season, Stewart struggled at those tracks, ranking 29th in driver rating at Martinsville and 15th at Texas.

How about Mr. Points Leader Carl Edwards? If Edwards can escape Martinsville, where he's 14th in driver rating, he could be in the catbird seat, with a top-5 driver rating at the final three tracks dating back to 2005.

Let's look at the other three, lightning-round style!

• Matt Kenseth -- He owns Texas, and he owns Homestead. His big issue will be getting through Martinsville, where he ran better than his career average in the spring. Phoenix isn't his strongest track, but I see that being a real wild card because of the repaving and configuration change.

• Brad Keselowski -- It's so tough to judge his past career performance, and even his performance earlier this season, because of how much he's outperformed his early career results recently. In his last race at all four remaining tracks, however, he ranked outside the top 10 in driver rating.

• Kevin Harvick -- Talladega was a huge blow for a driver who has performed well at the final three Chase tracks. Harvick won earlier this year at Martinsville and has two straight top-3 finishes there, but those are his only top-5s at the track. His numbers at Phoenix are good, but again, that track will be a wild card. Homestead is his strongest track left on the schedule, but will he still be in it?

Five up, five down. I think I've earned myself a big sandwich, and I think you're owed an Eliminator!

The Eliminator: Martinsville

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. Sixteen of the past 17 Martinsville winners had a previous top-2 finish at the track (32 eliminated, 15 remaining).

2. The past 14 Martinsville winners finished ninth or better in the previous Martinsville race (10 eliminated, five remaining).

3. Nine of the past 10 Martinsville winners finished in the top six a year earlier at the Virginia track (four eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Kevin Harvick.

You knew we were going to have some hot topics coming out of Talladega. I wouldn't have it any other way.

Several Chasers wrecked, Kevin Harvick and the Amazing Flying Busch Brothers among them. That's the hard luck that's par for the course at Talladega.

Carl Edwards widened his points lead by hanging back. To sum up his day, he started ninth, was 24th by the end of the first lap and 39th by the end of the second lap. He then didn't run a green-flag lap in the top 15 until the next-to-last lap, then finished 11th.

A good points day, especially given what happened to some of his closest pursuers.

On the flip side, we had some late-race controversy between Trevor Bayne and Jeff Gordon.

To summarize: Bayne and Gordon lost their drafting partners and decided to hook up at the end of the race. From there it gets murky, as Bayne may have had team orders to draft with Matt Kenseth, who lost his partner, David Ragan, to engine troubles.

More summaries: Gordon was mad at being dumped, Bayne was mad at perceived team orders and tweeted such. Then people denied there were team orders. End summary.

That's the complicated stuff. Now, I'll just give the fun stat side of the race.

The Century Mark

Lost in the madness was Clint Bowyer's win, the 100th Sprint Cup Series win for Richard Childress Racing. RCR is the fifth team to reach that mark, the other active teams being Hendrick Motorsports and Roush Fenway Racing.

Bowyer's won the Talladega Chase race, a race that has a reputation of being a crapshoot in which anyone can win in back-to-back years, so he's figured something out. Also, four of his five career wins have come in Chase races; two at Talladega, two at New Hampshire.

Trivia break: Where did Bowyer's non-Chase win come?

Competition Reigns

We didn't get to see Talladega pay out that $100,000 bonus that came with 100 lead changes, but it was an unrealistic goal.

Before Sunday, the previous three Talladega races all featured at least 87 lead changes, the three most in a race in series history.

Sunday's race featured "only" 72 lead changes, still the sixth-most in series history. The 26 separate leaders was on par for the past two races there and tied for the third-highest total in series history.

Also, the winner made yet another last-lap pass, the fifth time in the past six Talladega races that's happened, including four in a row.

Trivia break: Who did Bowyer pass on the last lap in last year's fall Talladega race?

Pacing The Chase

What do we need to know about the title picture after Talladega?

Well, no driver has won the Talladega Chase race and then gone on to win the title, but six of the seven Chase-era champions finished no worse than ninth in that race.

Johnson finished 26th in 2006, but then rattled off five straight top-two finishes to win the title.

Now, history shows it's a three-man race. No driver has come from outside the top three with four races remaining to win the Chase. Five of the seven held the lead at this point.

Trivia break: Who is the only other non-Chaser to win a Chase race over the past four seasons?

Power Rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I came up with a nerdy formula, using recent performance, along with recent performance at the track, to predict who'll be strong in the next race.

Here are my Chase power rankings for Martinsville.

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Kyle Busch
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Tony Stewart
8. Carl Edwards
9. Ryan Newman
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Kurt Busch
12. Brad Keselowski

Trivia Break Answers

1. Bowyer's non-Chase win came at Richmond.

2. Bowyer passed teammate Kevin Harvick on the last lap last year.

3. Jamie McMurray won a Chase race in 2009 and 2010.

Ah, Talladega. It's called the ultimate Chase wild card, but in reality, in the past three years of the Chase, the top three drivers in the standings left Talladega ranked the same way they went in.

Still, it's going to be wild. In the spring, Jimmie Johnson beat Clint Bowyer by .002 seconds -- no, that's not a typo. If Bowyer had won that race, who knows what that might've done for his Chase hopes. Maybe he'd still be driving for Richard Childress Racing next season.

The top eight at Talladega in the spring were separated by under two-tenths of a second, and although Talladega means anyone can run up front (see Dave Blaney's strong run in the spring race), at the end of the April race we had four Hendrick cars, two Roush Fenway cars and two Childress cars racing for the win.

That's what makes this humble blogger's job so difficult. How am I supposed to predict what's going to happen at Talladega? I might as well just tell you to sit back, relax and enjoy it. But then that'd make a pretty boring blog.

But let's look at the facts. Put on your reading spectacles.

Dating to 2005, do you know who has run the most fastest laps at Talladega? It's Michael Waltrip! He'll be running this week, and I'm not going to say he's a favorite, but I think he'll find a way to be a factor.

The driver with the fastest average speed going back to 2005? Trevor Bayne. The driver with the most green-flag passes inside the top 15 per race? Joey Logano. The young guns could be up front.

Or how about we just look at the spring race? Twenty-seven drivers finished on the lead lap in that one, and just one of those 27 didn't run the fastest lap at some point, and that was Andy Lally. And no driver ran more than eight fastest laps in the entire race.

OK, I have to give you some sort of prediction, and that is Bowyer again will be a factor. He has finished seventh or better in the past three Talladega races and had excellent driver ratings (123.4 and 123.2) in the past two.

In the spring race, he was one of four drivers with an average running position inside the top 10, along with Jeff Burton, Paul Menard and Kurt Busch.

I still don't know what's going to happen, though. My advice? Just sit back, relax and enjoy it.

The Eliminator: Talladega

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. Seventeen of the past 19 Talladega winners had a previous top-5 finish at the track (11 eliminated, 35 remaining).

2. Seven of the past eight fall Talladega winners had a top-15 finish in that year's Daytona 500 (24 eliminated, 11 remaining).

3. Eight of the past 11 Talladega winners came off a top-10 finish the previous week (eight eliminated, three remaining).

4. We've had eight different winners in the past eight Talladega races (two eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Carl Edwards.

Having reached the midway point of the Chase, it's time to reflect, mull things over and meditate on what we've learned.

Note: This isn't just my intro; it's homework. Get mulling.

First, we just can't count Jimmie Johnson out (more on that later). Two races into the Chase, he was down 29 points. Two races later, he was down just four. Now, back down 35 points.

Second, consistency is key. Each of the past two years, Johnson had nine top-10s on his way to a title. The two years before that, eight. You don't get many mulligans.

Third, Matt Kenseth isn't being so quiet anymore. Driving by Kyle Busch on a restart? That's impressive.

Fourth, it's disheartening to watch a race or championship be decided by a broken part, a loose lug nut or a few drops of fuel. The message: attention to detail. I might even proofread this today.

Finally, this week is Talladega, so who knows where we'll be at this time next week.

On with the blog!

Welcome, Matt

Last week, I read about how underrated Matt Kenseth was in the humor and wit department, something a guy like me can appreciate. Now, the features are about how he's a real contender for a second championship.

Kenseth ran 10 laps under 29 seconds, four more than any other driver in the field. In fact, only nine other drivers in the field ran a lap under 29 seconds at any point. Two of Kenseth's sub-29 laps came after the final restart. The rest of the field combined for two in that time.

Trivia break! Matt Kenseth's other Chase race win came at which track?

Consistent Carl

Carl Edwards remains atop the points, something he has done for 17 of 31 races this season. But he has won only once -- again, consistency is key.

Edwards has a top-10 in each of the first five Chase races, just the sixth time that has happened. If Edwards gets to six, that's good. Three times, a driver has had a top-10 in the first six Chase races, and all three went on to win the title.

Trivia break! Who are the two drivers to have six straight top-10s to start a Chase?

Is Jimmie still in it?

The 34th-place finish was Johnson's fifth worst in a Chase race. The last time he finished that bad in the Chase, 2009 at Texas, he won the next week.

In 2006, Johnson was seventh in the points after five Chase races, yet he still rebounded to win the title after finishing in the top two in each of the next four races, with a ninth in the finale.

Is he still in it? I'm not ready to rule him out yet, that's for sure.

Trivia break! Who led after five races in the 2006 Chase?

Power Rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I came up with a nerdy formula, using recent performance, plus recent performance at the specific track, to predict who'll be strong in the next race.

Here are my Chase power rankings for Talladega:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kurt Busch
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
7. Carl Edwards
8. Brad Keselowski
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Jeff Gordon
11. Tony Stewart
12. Ryan Newman

Trivia break answers

1. Kenseth won at Homestead in 2007.

2. Johnson (twice) and Kurt Busch have done it.

3. Jeff Burton led at the halfway point.

Before I get to my usual rambling and weekly preview, a quick thought: A Saturday night race this week at Charlotte Motor Speedway means no competition with the NFL and limited competition with college football.

If NASCAR were to start holding races on, say, Thursday or Friday nights during the Chase, would you be more likely to watch than on Sunday afternoons, when there's the NFL to be had?

Let's start a conversation in the comments section and let me know your thoughts!

Now, as for Charlotte ...

Earlier this season, we saw Carl Edwards dominate the Sprint All-Star Race and Kevin Harvick come out of nowhere to win the Coke 600 when a certain fan favorite (Dale Earnhardt Jr.) ran out of fuel in the final turn.

But despite their recent success at Charlotte, both drivers have struggled at the track since 2005.

Edwards ranks between 11th and 14th in the biggest of the loop-data categories: average running position, fastest laps run, green-flag speed and overall driver rating.

Harvick is in even rougher shape, ranking outside the top 20 in all of those categories.

So, who could take advantage? The easy answer is Jimmie Johnson, who leads the series in all those categories. But from 2005-09, Johnson's average driver rating was a 118.9. In the three races since, it's a pedestrian 92.7. Still good, but certainly not dominating, and not the best in the series.

So, let's say the numbers hold true, and those three struggle Saturday night. Who could take advantage?

How about the man who led the field in driver rating, laps led, fastest laps run and quality passes (green-flag passes inside the top 15) in the spring race at Charlotte?

If you like those numbers, you'd like Matt Kenseth. Kenseth finished 14th in that race but appeared to be the class of the field.

My prediction: the usual unpredictability.

The Eliminator: Charlotte

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. Sixteen of the past 17 Charlotte winners had a previous top-10 finish at the track (11 eliminated, 37 remaining).

2. The past eight fall Charlotte winners had a win earlier in the season (23 eliminated, 14 remaining).

3. Eight of the past nine Charlotte winners finished 11th or better in the previous Kansas race (eight eliminated, six remaining).

4. The past four and six of the past seven Charlotte winners finished in the top 13 of the most recent Charlotte race (four eliminated, two remaining).

5. The past four Charlotte winners and the past four fall Charlotte winners had top-20 finishes in their past three races overall (one eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Kevin Harvick.

Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's take it easy. Who was it that said Jimmie Johnson was out of this year's Chase?

It definitely wasn't me, although I did wonder if he had the speed this year he's had in years past. And it probably wasn't anyone who's watched a lot of NASCAR over the past six years or so.

Johnson's win Sunday at Kansas Speedway was both dominant and historic, but there's plenty of time to talk about that. For now, let me chat up a little Carl Edwards.

Lost in all the excitement of Johnson's win was the fact that Edwards came from a lap down, made a mad dash through the field on the final restart and finished fifth. That's what I call a championship day.

That's four straight top-10 finishes to start the Chase for Edwards. Last year, no Chaser pulled that off.

In 2009, three drivers did it, but one went further, as Johnson had seven straight, a task he also accomplished in 2008. We know how those seasons ended.

I know we're riding the Johnson train now, but somehow, Edwards has quietly snuck back into the points lead.

Now, to hop back on that Johnson train!

K.C. masterpiece

It's hard to think Johnson was in a slump, but he hadn't won in 21 starts, the longest streak of his career. Plus, it had been over a year since his last win in a non-restrictor plate race.

Johnson led 72.4 percent of the laps at Kansas, the seventh-highest total in any Chase race. He also became the first driver to lead over 70 percent of the laps in a Chase race on two occasions.

Trivia break! Johnson's win broke a tie for ninth all time in wins with who and moved him into a tie for eighth with who?

One for the boss

The win was the 199th for Hendrick Motorsports, which is one victory from joining Petty Enterprises (separate from the current Richard Petty Motorsports) in the 200-win club.

Johnson and Jeff Gordon have done the bulk of the winning, taking 140 of the 199 wins. That alone would be tied with Junior Johnson's team for the third-most wins behind Petty and Hendrick.

Only four teams have had 100 Cup wins, with Roush Fenway Racing's 124 joining the other three. Richard Childress Racing is at 99.

Trivia break! Who is the only driver to win a Cup race for Childress and Hendrick?

Best yet to come

Scary as it sounds, there might be more improvement ahead for Johnson.

In his career, Johnson's win percentage is 18.8 with a 10.8 average finish over the first four Chase races.

In the fifth to seventh Chase races, his win percentage jumps to an unreal 42.9, with an even more unreal 3.7 average finish.

Trivia break! Whose record for most laps led in a Kansas race did Johnson break? (Hint: It was set earlier this year.)

Chase power rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I came up with a nerdy formula, using recent performance this season, along with recent performance at the specific track, to predict who'll be strong in the next race.

Here are my Chase power rankings for Charlotte:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Matt Kenseth
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kurt Busch
5. Carl Edwards
6. Kevin Harvick
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Denny Hamlin
9. Tony Stewart
10. Brad Keselowski
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12. Ryan Newman

Trivia break answers

1. Johnson broke a tie for ninth with Lee Petty and moved into a tie for eighth with Rusty Wallace.

2. Ricky Rudd won twice for Childress and four times for Hendrick.

3. Kurt Busch led 152 laps at Kansas earlier this year; Johnson led 197.

What does the 2011 season have that past seasons haven't?

A second race at Kansas!

OK, that may not have been the most delightful riddle. Try this one on for size instead.

Why did I try the fish? Just for the halibut.

That's terrible … I love it! Now back to NASCAR.

What I was actually getting to was that we have a little more of a baseline to reflect back on to predict what will happen this Sunday.

When you take a look at just the last Kansas race versus the six races at the track since NASCAR began tracking loop data information, you get two totally different pictures.

If you look at the six-year approach, two drivers have distanced themselves from the field in most categories, Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle.

Biffle is the series leader in that time in overall driver rating and average running position. Johnson has run the fastest lap more often than any other driver and has the fastest average speed both early and late in runs.

However, just looking at the Kansas race from earlier this season, we get some other names to focus on. If you remember, Brad Keselowski got the win, his first of the season, but he did it by stretching fuel mileage, not by having one of the dominant cars in the race.

No, the dominant car seemed to belong to his teammate and last week's winner, Kurt Busch. Busch led about 57 percent of the race, and led basically every loop data category there is to lead. Plus he has the big-time momentum on his side after winning at Dover.

Who else to like? Well, Tony Stewart and Carl Edwards were in the top three along with Busch in nearly every category in the race, but with one exception.

Stewart had the second-fastest car early in runs, but dropped to eighth late in runs. Watch to see if they can make improvements based on the lengthy green-flag runs we've seen this year.

So what wins out at Kansas, recent history or a more thorough look back? Just settle down, wait, and we'll figure it out together.

The Eliminator: Kansas Edition

Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking a name off the top of their head. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. Every fall Kansas winner had a previous top-six finish at the track (27 drivers eliminated, 19 remaining).
2. The past seven Kansas winners finished 19th or worse in the last Charlotte race (11 eliminated, eight remaining).
3. The last five fall Kansas winners finished in the top 10 in the last Texas race (seven eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Jimmie Johnson

The theme for the 2011 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup so far, at least for this humble researcher, is competition.

Not only do we have a tie atop the standings, with Kevin Harvick getting the tiebreaker and therefore the points lead over Carl Edwards, but only 19 points separate Harvick/Edwards from ninth-place Jeff Gordon.

Now, it's difficult to compare past years' Chases to this year, because of the change in the points system, but I think I've found a way.

Those 19 point are equivalent to a 25th-place finish on the track. Last year at this time, it was a 101-point spread from first to ninth, with 101 points being equivalent then to a 20th-place finish.

And that's the only Chase year that even comes close to being as competitive as this year's. The next closest spread between first and ninth came in 2005, when it was a 138-point spread, or about a ninth-place finish.

I hope I didn't lose you there, but let me break down this year's Chase and the Dover race using my usual three-tiered approach:

Team parity

From 2007-10, Hendrick Motorsports won 45 of the 144 races, or about 31 percent. Meanwhile, Hendrick rep Jimmie Johnson won all four titles, and a Hendrick driver finished second in two of those seasons.

But this year, the competition among teams is much more even (check out the accompanying list).

The six teams that make up the Chase field all have between three and five wins between them, with each of those teams having had two drivers represent them in Victory Lane.

The competition is nice and spread out, meaning that this championship is up for grabs for nearly anyone.

Trivia break! What team got its first Sprint Cup win this season?

The lead's the thing

You might remember the note from last week about how no driver with the Chase points lead after two races has ever gone on to actually win the title. If not, go ahead and read -- I'll wait.

But this week, the lead's the spot to be in.

In five of the previous seven Chases, the leader at this point went on to win the title. In 2009, Jimmie Johnson was second, and in 2006, he was all the way back in eighth.

Trivia break! Who were the points leaders in 2006 and 2009 who didn't win the title?

Oh, yeah, the race!

I don't traditionally like to go this long without mentioning the race winner, but I just love those notes. I tried showing them to Kurt Busch, but he tore them up. I think he understands, though.

Busch killed the field on the final two restarts on his way to victory. His average speed on the first two laps after a restart was 150.637 mph.

That was a mph faster than any other driver in the field. Jimmie Johnson was second at a 149.626. Only one other driver -- Kyle Busch -- was even over 149 mph.

Trivia break! Who has the fastest average speed on restarts this season?

Chase Power Rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I devised my own little nerdy formula, using recent performance this season, along with recent performance at the specific track.

Remember, this isn't for the Chase as a whole, only heading into Kansas.

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Kurt Busch
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Tony Stewart
7. Matt Kenseth
8. Kyle Busch
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Denny Hamlin
11. Ryan Newman
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Trivia break answers

1. Furniture Row Racing got its first win with Regan Smith in the Southern 500.

2. Jeff Burton led after three races in 2006; Mark Martin led in 2009.

3. Kurt Busch's brother Kyle Busch is the fastest on restarts for the whole season.