What's in a number? Frankly for me, quite a bit, seeing as I'm employed as a researcher and a statistically themed blogger.

Driving a car with the No. 11 on it didn't make Denny Hamlin great, but he helped add to the legacy of a number that has been driven by some of the greats: Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip and Ned Jarrett. Even Mario Andretti and A.J. Foyt won races in the 11.

Hamlin's victory Sunday at Phoenix was the 198th by a driver in the NASCAR Cup Series driving the 11, tying it with the legendary 43 car for most by any car number. No other car number is within 100 wins of those two.

But, the 11 does have some advantages over the 43 when comparing the two. The first is recent success, as Hamlin has won 14 Cup races over the past four seasons, more than any driver not named Jimmie Johnson. The 43 has won just three Cup races since the start of the 1985 season, two by Bobby Hamilton and one from John Andretti, the last in 1999.

The other is the variety of drivers in the cars. The 43 is dominated by Richard Petty; 192 of his 200 career wins came in that car. The other six wins have come from Hamilton, Andretti, Jim Paschal and Lee Petty.

Hamlin is the 13th driver to win driving the 11 car, and his 18 wins in the car rank fourth in that car's history, behind Yarborough's 55, Jarrett's 49 and Waltrip's 43. Junior Johnson also won 11 races in the 11.

They don't retire numbers in NASCAR, and that's for the best, because it only gives opportunities to add to the legacies that have been laid by legends.

Trivia break: Before Hamlin, who was the last driver to win in the 11?

Warm Cup Of Joe

Joe Gibbs Racing put all three of its cars into the top 10 at Phoenix. Hamlin's win was supplemented with a sixth from Kyle Busch and a 10th from Joey Logano.

It's the first time the Coach has had all three of his cars in the top 10 since the 2010 Chase race at Martinsville, but back then, it was a common occurrence.

That Martinsville race, also won by Hamlin, was the fourth time in a seven-race stretch that JGR had all three cars in the top 10.

Trivia break: What driver got JGR's first top-10 and win?

Streak Bustin'

In my Eliminator for Phoenix (got a third out of Biffle), I noted that Phoenix has been a great place to end winless streaks, and that held true Sunday, as Hamlin ended his modest 22-race winless streak.

Each of the past five Phoenix winners broke winless streaks at least that long. In fact, before Hamlin, the previous four Phoenix winners had winless streaks of at least 66 races: Kasey Kahne, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards and Ryan Newman.

Trivia break: Who holds the Cup record for most starts between wins?

Trivia Break Answers

1. Bill Elliott was the last driver before Hamlin to win in the 11.
2. Dale Jarrett gave JGR its first top-10 at Bristol in 1992, and first win at Daytona in 1993.
3. Elliott went 226 starts between wins from 1994 to 2001.

With the news that Jimmie Johnson's crew chief, Chad Knaus, was suspended six races, not to mention a serious hit to the wallet and a points reduction that leaves you and I with more points than Johnson entering the weekend, it begs the question how it'll affect Johnson's on-track performance.

Luckily we do have some history of Johnson's performance without Knaus on the box, although Knaus is still active in the shop.

In 2006 and 2007, Knaus was suspended by NASCAR for rules violations. In 2006, Johnson spent the first four races with Darian Grubb as his crew chief and won two of those.

In those four races, Johnson had a 2.5 average finish and an average driver rating of 114.1. In the final 32 races with Knaus, Johnson's numbers weren't quite as good, with a 10.6 average finish and 100.4 driver rating.

Johnson also won "only" three of the 32 races that season with Knaus as his crew chief.

In 2007, Knaus was suspended due to rules violations found at Sonoma, and Johnson struggled more with Ron Malec as his crew chief, with a 21 average finish and 99.3 driver rating.

However, you can't point the finger at Malec for that performance, as Johnson wrecked out of two of the four races, and he had led 82 laps at Chicago before wrecking out and finishing 37th. In the races Johnson finished with Malec as crew chief, he had an average finish of fourth.

There might not be a better site than Phoenix for Johnson to start his time without Knaus. Johnson has won four times at Phoenix while no other driver in Sprint Cup Series history has won there more than twice. Johnson's average finish of 5.4 trails only Alan Kulwicki's 5.2 mark in track history.

But Johnson is coming off his worst career race at Phoenix.

Going into November's Chase race at Phoenix, Johnson had a 121.8 driver rating at the track (since NASCAR began track loop data in 2005) and a 5.4 average running position.

But in that race, Johnson put up a Phoenix career-low 71.5 driver rating and an 18.9 ARP. He also ran the fastest lap once in the race's 312 laps, after running the fastest lap in 10.5 percent of laps in the previous 13 races there.

The Eliminator: Phoenix

For those of you new to my little blog, every week I use a device called The Eliminator to make my race pick. It's pretty simple; instead of telling you why one guy will win, I'll point out why everybody else has to lose. The driver remaining, by process of elimination, is the race winner.

1. There hasn't been a first-time winner at Phoenix since 1996 (13 drivers eliminated, 31 remaining).

2. The past 12 Phoenix winners had a previous top-5 at the track (nine eliminated, 22 remaining).

3. The past four Phoenix winners didn't win a race in the previous season (12 eliminated, 10 remaining).

4. Of the past 11 Phoenix winners, 10 had a top-14 finish in the previous Phoenix race (seven eliminated, three remaining).

5. Six of the seven spring Phoenix race winners finished in the top 10 in the last New Hampshire race, and the seventh didn't run the previous New Hampshire race (two eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Greg Biffle.

How will the 2012 Daytona 500 be remembered?

Is it the race that saw Juan Pablo Montoya hit the jet dryer, causing a massive fire and a two-hour red flag (message: jet fuel burns well)? Is it the race that saw Brad Keselowski gain about 130,000 Twitter followers (come on, support me @MattWillisESPN)?

Or, is it the race that Matt Kenseth won, holding off Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Greg Biffle?

While the lasting images from this 500 might have been forged with 40 laps to go, it's important not to overlook Matt Kenseth. Kenseth, who also won in 2009 in a rain-shortened event, is the ninth driver to win multiple Daytona 500s, and among that group, seven have also won series titles.

Last year, Kenseth's numbers were impressive in the Chase, but a couple bad breaks left him out of the title hunt at Homestead. But with another title added to the one he has, he'd join Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough and Jeff Gordon as drivers with multiple titles and multiple Daytona 500 wins.

But Even More Impressive

Let's face it, the race ended early Tuesday morning, and arriving back to work at 8:30 a.m. ET, I still had some mulling to do. And I noticed that Kenseth led the final 38 laps of the race.

If you think that seems like a lot, you are correct. Nobody's led that many laps to finish a Daytona 500 since Dale Earnhardt led the final 61 in 1998.

The last time it was done before that, you have to go all the way back to A.J. Foyt in 1972, who led the final 120 laps.

Trivia break: Who holds the record for most laps led to end a Daytona 500?

The Lowe's

NASCAR Now host Allen Bestwick said it best. A 90-day offseason for about 60 seconds of racing. That's what 2006 Daytona 500 champion Jimmie Johnson faced.

He and David Ragan ran just one lap before wrecking. The last driver to run one or fewer laps in a Daytona 500 was Harry Gant in 1978; before that it was Cale Yarborough in 1976.

Trivia break: Before Johnson/Ragan, who was the last driver to run two or fewer laps in a Daytona 500? (Hint: He won a title that year.)

Actually A Wreck-fest?

One lesson to take away from Daytona is that you can't make everyone happy. People missed the tandem racing, a year after everyone missed pack racing. Some said it was too boring in the middle, or too wild at the beginning and end.

The truth is, thanks to the accident database put together by the ESPN Stats & Information team, it was actually a down year for crashes at the 500 (not including Montoya versus Jet Dryer).

From 2007 to '11, there was an average of 6.7 accidents per race at Daytona. This year, just five.

Of course, that average is still well up from past stretches. From 1990 to '99, it was just 3.0 a race. From 2000 to '06, 3.1 a race.

Trivia break: It was Kenseth's crew chief Jimmy Fennig's second Daytona 500 win atop the box. Whom did he lead to victory in the first?

Trivia Break Answers

1. Richard Petty led the final 149 laps of the 1964 Daytona 500.
2. Tony Stewart ran just two laps in the 2002 Daytona 500.
3. Fennig led Bobby Allison to victory in 1988.

The Daytona 500 can be described with several words, words like prestigious, legendary and unpredictable.

Unfortunately for me, as a stats-minded blogger, the unpredictable part doesn't bode well for what I do, which is trying to find stats and trends to try to break down the race.

But while the winners might be predictable, there's one trend that's always brought about debate: whether it makes more sense to race up front or hang in the back and hope you miss the mayhem.

Kyle Busch ran up front throughout last Saturday's Budweiser Shootout and won despite a couple of wild saves. But drivers like Brad Keselowski and Ryan Newman ended up with good finishes after hanging back. But they didn't win.

NASCAR keeps track of a stat called average running position, which is literally the average of where a driver is running every lap of the race. And at the Daytona 500, it helps to be one of those guys at the front of the pack.

Since 2005, when NASCAR began tracking loop data, every Daytona 500 winner has ranked in the top 10 in average running position during the race, and in three of those seven races, the winner had the best ARP during the race.

In those seven races, the driver with the best ARP has an 8.7 average finish in the race, with Clint Bowyer's 17th-place finish last year weighing it down.

It begs the question: Who's going to run up front this Sunday?

While it's impossible to know what drivers' strategies will be ahead of time (not nearly that sneaky), we can look at which drivers tend to be at the front of the field at Daytona.

From 2007-09, Kyle Busch had a top-two ARP in the Daytona 500, but it didn't pay off, with an average finish of 23.0 in those races. The past two years, his ARP was ninth and 18th, but he finished 14th and eighth in those races. His strategy might be changing toward being in the back.

Watch for Bowyer to be up front throughout the race, as each of the past two years he's been in the top two in ARP. Plus he's had Daytona 500 success, as he's finished in the top five in two of the past three 500s. Plus, he's won the last two fall Talladega races.

Maybe the mystical spirits that make their home in Daytona Beach reward the racers and risk takers. Or maybe it just pays to be racing all day and not have to turn on that switch down the stretch.

The Eliminator: Daytona

For those of you new to my blog, welcome! Also, I've come up with a method of picking race winners using statistics and history.

But instead of picking a winner, I'm going to tell you why all but one driver in the field cannot win. I call this The Eliminator.

1. Six of the past eight and 10 of the past 13 Daytona 500 winners ran in the first Duel race (24 drivers eliminated, 25 remaining).

2. Nine of the past 10 Daytona 500 winners finished 14th or better in the last Daytona race (18 eliminated, seven remaining).

3. The past four Daytona 500 winners finished outside the top 10 in points the previous season (three eliminated, four remaining).

4. Three of the past four Daytona 500 winners were winless the previous season (two eliminated, two remaining).

5. The past five Daytona 500 winners did not finish in the top 10 in the previous year's Daytona 500 (one eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: AJ Allmendinger

You haven't heard from me in a couple of months, but it's not like I haven't been hard at work.

I've been off in the Himalayas, pondering, reflecting and crunching the numbers in search of a fine year in NASCAR statistics and analysis.

[+] Enlarge
Jared C. Tilton/Getty ImagesAJ Allmendinger will pilot Penske Racing's No. 22 Dodge -- a car that made the Chase in 2011.

OK, that's not entirely true. I've been mostly working from my desk. Horrible wireless connection in the Himalayas. Plus, work kept wanting me to come in and do things.

But I have managed to crunch the numbers in reaction to some of the offseason's storylines. We can easily break these down into four easy-to-follow categories.

Something I know I know:
Drivers who can make history

Danica Patrick likely will dominate the early season headlines, especially after she makes the Daytona 500 field. Thanks to a points swap between Stewart-Haas Racing and Tommy Baldwin Racing, she'll become just the third woman to run the Daytona 500, joining Janet Guthrie and Shawna Robinson.

Meanwhile, Aric Almirola takes over the storied 43 car. Which, despite its lack of success recently, remains the winningest car number in Cup series history, with 198.

However, one Denny Hamlin win would tie the 11 with the 43. Since Richard Petty last won in 1984, the 43 has three wins -- two with Bobby Hamilton, and most recently with John Andretti in 1999.

Something I think I know: The Dinger's opportunity

Let's face it: AJ Allmendinger was the big winner of the offseason car swaps. Coming off career bests of 10 top-10 finishes and a 15th-place finish in points, he'll now head to a Penske Racing car that was in the Chase last season.

But that's not as good of an omen as you'd think.

This is the sixth time a car has become available that was in the Chase the previous season. Of the previous five drivers who filled the seat, only one made the Chase, Dale Earnhardt Jr., in 2008.

Chart time!

Something I know I think:
It's Kahne's year

We've known for quite some time that Kasey Kahne would be driving for Hendrick Motorsports this season, and recent history has shown that this will be moving time for Kahne.

The last three drivers to join Hendrick Motorsports on the Cup side each had their best year with Hendrick in their first year there, then dropped off dramatically the second:

• Casey Mears won his only race and finished 15th in points in 2007; dropped to 20th in 2008.

• Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s his last win came in his first year with Hendrick, in 2008, with 10 top-5s and 16 top-10s; had two top-5s and five top-10s the next year.

• Mark Martin finished second in points with five wins in 2009, but did not win or make the Chase in either of his next two seasons.

Something I think I think: a Nationwide rebound

There's been an outcry against Cup regulars dominating the Nationwide Series recently, and I've largely been supportive of it. But Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards announcing they won't run as many Nationwide races next season might be the best thing to happen there in quite some time.

The series has struggled with its identity. Over the past six seasons, only 17 of 209 races have been won by Nationwide Series regulars who were not also Cup regulars. That's about 8 percent.

Expanding to just non-full-time Cup drivers, it jumps only to 25 of 209, or 12 percent.

The clearest offenders were Edwards, Busch and Brad Keselowski, who combined to win 44 of 69 Nationwide Series races over the past two seasons (63.8 percent).

The absence of Cup regulars from the Nationwide Series hopefully will allow other drivers to make names for themselves, which will attract sponsors and benefit the long-term health of all of NASCAR.

You couldn't have asked more of a season that included 18 different winners, a points battle that ended in a dead heat and was decided on a tiebreaker and a NASCAR stats blogger who provided about 80 blog posts throughout the season.

I won't lie: Sometimes, this job can be really cool. One of those times was Monday, when Tony Stewart was on the ESPN campus and I got a chance to ask him about his run to a title and what, to me, was the lasting moment of this race -- his thrilling, four-wide pass in his mad dash to the front.

Putting on my analyst's hat for a second, it wasn't just that he made it four-wide, it's the fact that he could drive it down on the bottom, make it stick and make the pass, while most drivers could only make passes if they had the high line, struggling to keep it underneath another car.

Stewart then gave me a quick lesson about the line he was taking, how it differed from the line others were taking, and how he managed to hone that type of move driving on dirt tracks throughout the year.

A cool experience for little ol' me, and a perfect segue to my final three-tiered notes of the season.

Historic win

It's a little early to go lightning-round mode, but let's recap some history.

Stewart became:

• The ninth driver to win at least three Cup titles.

• The seventh driver to win a Cup title with two teams.

• The seventh owner/driver to win a title.

• The fourth driver to enter the final race out of the lead, and win the title.

Take a deep breath, as you're not going to see that much history made often.

Trivia break! Who are the other six drivers to win Cup titles with two different teams?

A win to win it all

Another rare feat Stewart pulled off is a win in the finale by a driver who also won the championship.

Stewart's the first driver to do it since Jeff Gordon in 1998, and just the seventh driver overall. Before that, the last time it was done was by Richard Petty at Texas World Speedway in 1971.

Trivia break! Before Stewart, who was the last 40-year-old to win a Cup title?

Don't forget about Carl

It's sobering to think that it would've taken Carl Edwards only one more point for him to win his first Cup championship.

There were two Chase races in which he didn't lead a single lap. How about the Southern 500, when he couldn't get around Regan Smith in the closing laps for the win, costing him three bonus points?

Or the Chase Talladega race, where he finished 11th, 0.03 seconds behind 10th-place Martin Truex Jr.

Nonetheless, Edwards finished the Chase with an average finish of 4.9, the best mark in Chase history, but not enough to overcome the 15 bonus points Stewart got for his five wins.

Trivia break! Besides Edwards, which two drivers in Cup history finished second in points multiple times but never won a title?

Trivia break answers

1. Terry Labonte, Dale Earnhardt, David Pearson, Ned Jarrett, Buck Baker and Tim Flock.

2. Dale Jarrett was 42 when he won the Cup in 1999.

3. Mark Martin did so five times, James Hylton three times.

First of all, I'd like to thank everybody for sticking with me throughout the season. We had a rocky road: my drug issues, my torrid affairs, my bank-robbing spree.

OK, none of those things actually happened, but that's not how I'll write it in my memoirs. I'll have the best memoirs ever.

The 2011 Chase has been odd, as we have drivers with two completely different methods sitting atop the points. Tony Stewart has looked dominating with his wins, but Carl Edwards' consistency has been remarkable.

By the pure numbers, Stewart has had the most impressive Chase. Not only are his four Chase wins tied with Jimmie Johnson for the most in a single Chase, but his 111.8 driver rating is tops in the Chase and nearly 11 points higher than Edwards' mark.

In fact, Edwards' 101.1 driver rating in the playoff is fourth-highest among the dozen Chasers, also behind Matt Kenseth and Johnson. But he's avoided the calamities that have plagued other contenders, which is why he takes a three-point lead into the finale.

Now, heading to Homestead-Miami Speedway, it's Edwards' time to shine.

Of any track where Edwards has made more than one Cup start, his 5.7 average finish at Homestead is his best mark. In fact, that's the best by any driver who's ever made a Cup start there.

NASCAR has this sweet little statistic called driver rating. It pretty nearly resembles the NFL's passer rating in that anything over 100 is pretty solid and 150 is perfection.

Last year at Homestead, Edwards not only won the race -- he put up a perfect 150 driver rating.

Do you know how many times that's been done over the past two Sprint Cup Series seasons?

Just that one time. Edwards had an average running position of 1.5, led more than 70 percent of the total laps and led the field by running the fastest lap on 61 of 267 circuits.

What makes it even more remarkable is that just two years prior, Edwards nearly did it as well, with a 147.1 driver rating in his Homestead win.

Stewart is no slouch at Homestead. In fact, he's one of three drivers to have won there at least twice. But his wins came in 1999 and 2000, in the first two races at the track and before the reconfiguration.

In the past six races, dating back to when NASCAR began tracking loop data, Stewart had a driver rating over 90 only once there, a 109.3 in 2008.

My official prediction: This is where Edwards drops the hammer. But if 2011 has shown us anything, it's that anything can happen at any time.

The Eliminator: Homestead

Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners -- I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. The past six Homestead winners finished in the top 13 in the previous year's race (36 eliminated, 12 remaining).

2. The past nine Homestead winners had a top-10 finish in the most recent Atlanta race (five eliminated, seven remaining).

3. The past three Homestead winners finished sixth or better in the most recent Kansas race (two eliminated, five remaining).

4. The past four Homestead winners finished fourth or better in the most recent Sprint Cup race overall (four eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Carl Edwards.

And then there was one, and we're right where we left you. Three points separate Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart for a coveted championship.

The difference? Instead of being virtually a two-man race, it's now literally a two-man race as everybody else has been eliminated … even Chad Little.

Maybe you don't have a rooting interest, and are looking for somebody to sport a T-shirt for in the finale. Well, both are racing for some history.

Edwards is trying to give owner Jack Roush his third title in the last nine years. He's also trying to cement his legacy as just the second driver to win Cup and Nationwide titles, joining Bobby Labonte.

On the Stewart side, his legacy could take a huge jump if he's hoisting the trophy.

In the last 30 years, only Alan Kulwicki has won a Cup title as an owner/driver. Before Kulwicki, the last to do it was Richard Petty in 1979.

Stewart would also become the ninth driver to win at least three Cup titles and the seventh driver to win titles with two different teams.

Now, with the statistical analysis!

Kahne Was Able

Kasey Kahne had been regularly running up front for the past few weeks, and you have to admire his ability to not mail it in, knowing there's a nice, warm seat waiting for him at Hendrick Motorsports next season.

With his current team, Red Bull Racing, facing a very uncertain future after this season, it was also great to see him give that team a visit to Victory Lane before year's end.

Kahne has been impressive throughout the Chase. His 331 points so far is the third-most among all drivers, trailing only Edwards and Stewart. It's 35 more than Kevin Harvick, who's third in points.

Trivia break: How many other Cup wins does Red Bull Racing have?

Model of Consistency

One of the biggest storylines of this Chase is how Stewart, with four Chase wins, continues to trail Edwards, who hasn't won in the Chase and has a single win this season.

But Edwards' average finish so far in the Chase is a 5.2. That mark would be better than six of the seven prior Chase champions, and the third-best mark all-time.

In 2007, Jimmie Johnson had a 5.0 in winning the title. Jeff Gordon's 5.1 that year was good enough for second.

Trivia break: What Chase season had the worst average finish by a champion?

Sweet 18

If you've been reading me throughout the year (thanks to some, and a threatening glare to those who said no), you know I love competition.

This year has proved to be one of the most wide open, with 18 different Cup winners -- leaving us just one shy of tying the Cup record.

Nineteen winners was last done in 2001, including a first-time winner in the season's final race.

It had been done twice before that too, in 1958 and 1961, but in each of those cases, there were over 50 races in the season.

Trivia break: Who won the 2001 season finale to become the 19th different winner?

Power Rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I came up with a nerdy formula, using recent performance, along with recent results at the track, to predict who'll be strong in the next race, and the next race only.

Here are my Chase power rankings for Homestead.

1. Carl Edwards
2. Tony Stewart
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Ryan Newman
8. Kyle Busch
9. Kurt Busch
10. Jeff Gordon
11. Brad Keselowski
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Trivia Break Answers

1. Brian Vickers has Red Bull Racing's only other win, at Michigan in 2009.
2. Jimmie Johnson won the 2006 title with a 10.8 average finish.
3. Robby Gordon became the 19th different winner of the season.

If you've made it this far on the ESPN.com NASCAR page, you're well aware of what's going on at the top of the Chase.

And you're also well aware of the whole situation over in the No. 18 camp. Of course, I'm referring to Michael McDowell's 33rd-place finish at Texas.

Wait, that's not what you were talking about? Wait, he did what?

Nah, you come to my little notch on ESPN.com to dig a little deeper, get more informed and chuckle at my feeble attempts at comedy (see above). So, that's what I'll give you, since I'm nothing if not thoughtful.

So, to recap, we have Carl Edwards and Tony Stewart atop the Chase standings, but if you really look at the first eight Chase races, neither has been the most impressive Chase driver.

If you gauge it by driver rating, NASCAR's formula that encompasses many statistics and tries to quantify a driver's real performance instead of just finishes, then you like Matt Kenseth.

Kenseth's driver rating is a 109.6, one of three drivers at more than 100 for the Chase, along with Stewart (108.7) and Jimmie Johnson (106.1). Edwards is fourth with a 98.2.

Let's recap Kenseth's Chase, just to get an idea of how much closer he should be to a championship.

At Chicago, Kenseth ran out of gas late and finished eighth after a push. But since that push was illegal, Kenseth was given a 21st-place finish, losing 13 points. At Talladega, Kenseth lost his drafting partner, and even though Trevor Bayne tried to push him, it was too late to make a run. Then at Martinsville, incidents with Brian Vickers and a multi-car wreck that included Kyle Busch led to a 31st-place finish.

In the other five races, he's finished sixth or better. He's just 38 out of the lead, even with the misfortune.

How about looking at just raw speed? Well, that belongs to Mr. Five-Time, Jimmie Johnson.

Johnson's run the fastest lap on 13.1 percent of the circuits in the Chase. No other Chaser is better than a 7.1. And he just didn't dominate in one race to cheat that total higher. No, he ran 49-plus fastest laps in four different Chase races, and 23 in another.

So, while Edwards and Stewart have made it a two-man race, don't ignore the fact that, breaking down the numbers, it's Johnson and Kenseth who have been most impressive.

The Eliminator: Phoenix

Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking a name off the top of their head. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. There hasn't been a first-time race winner at Phoenix since 1996 (14 drivers eliminated, 32 remaining).
2. The past nine Phoenix winners finished 16th or better in that Phoenix race one year ago (16 eliminated, 16 remaining).
3. The past 11, and 20 of the past 21 Phoenix winners finished in the top 11 in the last New Hampshire race (10 eliminated, six remaining).
4. The past eight, and 11 of the last 12 Phoenix winners finished 12th or better in the last Phoenix race (three eliminated, three remaining).
5. The last five fall Phoenix winners entered the race in the top five in points (two eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Carl Edwards

We've reached an interesting point in the season.

Four wins versus no wins? Advantage: no wins.

Analyzing the new points system prior to the season, it became obvious that this new format did less to reward good finishes and more to punish poor ones. The three-point bonus for winning races is nice, but I'd be game for upping that to five points, meaning a maximum of 50 points instead of the current 48.

Edwards is having a legendary Chase, challenging Jimmie Johnson's mark for the best average finish in a playoff, but he's doing it with consistency, not checkered flags.

Do you remember Edwards' lone win this season? Allow me to refresh your memory, as that's sort of my job.

Back on March 6, Tony Stewart dominated at Las Vegas but took four tires on the final stop and dropped from first to third. Carl Edwards took two and won the race by 1.2 seconds over Stewart.

Had Stewart been able to pass Edwards, or had he played a different pit strategy, he might be looking at a three-point lead instead of a three-point deficit.

But that's playing the what-if game, and I'm here to play that what-is game! And then maybe some Hungry, Hungry Hippos!

Mr. Consistency

There are worse things in the world to be than consistent. But some people equate consistency with boring, and that shouldn't be the case.

Edwards has a 5.6 average finish in the Chase, opposed to 7.4 for Stewart. Of the seven previous Chase champions, only one of them finished the Chase with an average finish better than Edwards' mark -- Johnson's unreal 2007 season, when he finished with a 5.0.

Trivia break! What is Edwards' worst finish in the 2011 Chase?

Four for the road

Before this year, every Chase record belonged to Johnson, and most still do. But now Stewart has wedged his name alongside the defending five-time champion's.

Those two are the only drivers to have won four races in a single Chase, and Stewart still gets two more shots to leave Johnson in the dust.

Of course, Johnson has won four races in a Chase three times -- Stewart's on his first.

Trivia break! Who is the only other driver besides Johnson and Stewart to win as many as three races in a Chase?

Magic number

This entry is brought to you by the No. 10.

Stewart now has 10 Chase wins. He's just the second driver to reach that mark, trailing Johnson's 20.

Ten also is the number of wins Stewart has as an owner/driver. He's the eighth driver to reach that mark. Of the previous seven, only one has won a Cup race after 1965, the legendary Richard Petty.

Trivia break! How many of the other six owner/drivers with at least 10 wins can you name?

Power rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I devised a nerdy formula, using recent performance, along with recent results at the respective track, to predict who'll be strong in the next race, and the next race only.

Here are my Chase power rankings for Phoenix:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Matt Kenseth
4. Kyle Busch
5. Jeff Gordon
6. Carl Edwards
7. Ryan Newman
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Kurt Busch
10. Denny Hamlin
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12. Brad Keselowski

Trivia break answers

1. Edwards finished 11th at Talladega, his worst mark so far.

2. Edwards won three Chase races in 2008.

3. Besides Stewart and Richard Petty: Lee Petty, Herb Thomas, Rex White, Jack Smith, Buck Baker and Junior Johnson.