I'm going to call it like I see it. As a stats guy, I love it when I'm right. Who doesn't?

But, sometimes, I like being proved wrong when it means somebody has thrown past evidence aside to succeed, and that's why I'm digging Brad Keselowski after he finished second at New Hampshire.

It's a little strange that Keselowski struggled to the degree he did last season. I mean, he was winning a Nationwide Series championship while simultaneously putting up no top-5s and two top-10s on the Sprint Cup side. And none of those top-10s came in the first 31 races, and he didn't finish better than 10th all year.

Maybe something just clicked, and maybe it was the addition of crew chief Paul Wolfe on the Cup side that got him the rest of the way there. Either way, Keselowski's improvement has been impressive.

Let's take a look at his driver rating, a figure that measures a driver's total performance on a scale from 0-150. From last year, his driver rating is up 22.2 points, the biggest jump by a full-time driver this season.

To compare, last year, only one driver had a jump that big, Kevin Harvick, whose rating jumped 22.3 points as he finished third in the points.

Keselowski's driver rating this year is a solid 87.3, 11th best in the series. But that's not a fair look at it, since Keselowski did struggle somewhat early in the year.

After the July Daytona race, Keselowski's driver rating on the season was a 76.6, ranking 20th among the full-time Cup drivers. Since then, his driver rating per race averages out to 103.7. If he put up that mark for the entire season, he'd rank second in the series behind Kyle Busch.

I was among the many who were just waiting for Keselowski's Cinderella run to end. Now, I'm starting to think it just might not.

The Eliminator: Dover Edition

Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking a name off the top of their head. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1) The past 12 Dover winners had a top-20 finish in the previous Phoenix race (25 drivers eliminated, 20 remaining).
2) The past eight fall Dover winners finished in the top 11 of the previous year's fall Dover race (12 eliminated, eight remaining).
3) The past six race winners this season all finished seventh or better in the previous week's race (seven eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Jeff Gordon

I've noted it time and time again this season: Every time I think I have all the answers, they keep changing the questions. (A little Roddy Piper, anyone?)

Going into the Chase, you want to find a couple of favorites and a couple you can rule out. Based on Tony Stewart's thoughts following the second Michigan race, it sounded like he was ready to rule himself out, too.

"I'll be perfectly honest ... if we're going to run this bad, it really doesn't matter whether we make the Chase or not," Stewart quipped. "Our stuff is so bad right now that we're wasting one of those top-12 spots."

Was this the infamous anti-jinx? You know, when you don't really think you're out of it, but you say you are to tip fate in your favor?

Regardless of Stewart's opinion, then, he's the man atop the Chase standings a fifth of the way through the Chase.

Smoke rises to the top

With the New Hampshire victory, Stewart became the second driver to win the first two Chase races in a season, joining Greg Biffle in 2008. Biffle didn't win the title, finishing third behind Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards, but he did continue to run well, finishing third in the third race.

Stewart has won eight overall Chase races from 2004-11, which is tied with Edwards for the second-most behind Johnson's 19. Three of Stewart's eight wins came in 2006, the only year he didn't make the Chase.

Trivia break! Stewart has eight wins as an owner/driver. Since 1972, who is the only driver with more?

When not to lead

Stewart's reward for back-to-back wins is the points lead. But that's not the place to be two races in.

In the seven prior Chases, no driver has won the title after leading after two races. Each of the past four years, the driver leading after two races ended up finishing second.

In 2005, Johnson led after two races, that being the last year he failed to win the title. That year, Stewart won the Chase.

Trivia break! Where did Johnson finish the Chase in 2005?

It can be done

On Monday's "NASCAR Now," the crew discussed just what can be made up over the final eight races, as Jeff Gordon, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Johnson are among the drivers 23-29 points behind the leader.

I crunched the numbers and figured out that it can be done.

Three times this season, a driver found himself 29 or more points out of the lead, then was in the points lead within eight races.

Johnson was 33 back, and he led eight races later. Kyle Busch was 37 out and led two later (he also was 60 out five races before) and Kevin Harvick led four races after being 43 out.

Trivia break! Stewart led two laps, tying what driver for fewest laps led in a New Hampshire win?

Power rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I devised my own little nerdy formula, using recent performance this season, along with recent performance at the specific track.

Remember, this isn't for the Chase as a whole, only heading into Dover.

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Carl Edwards
3. Kyle Busch
4. Matt Kenseth
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Jeff Gordon
7. Kurt Busch
8. Tony Stewart
9. Ryan Newman
10. Brad Keselowski
11. Denny Hamlin
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Trivia break answers

1. Richard Petty had 58 wins as an owner/driver after 1972.

2. Johnson finished a career-worst fifth in 2005.

3. Jeff Burton led two laps in a July 1999 win.

Color me intrigued by the Chase so far (or for our international friends, colour me intrigued)

Chicago provided a wild start, with fuel-mileage issues and penalties resulting in a shuffled Chase field in a year with a new points system in which poor finishes are punished even more and consistency is even more valuable.

New Hampshire marks the start of an interesting stretch of the schedule. First of all, it starts a stretch of distinctive tracks, after the flat magic mile, we get the high banks of Dover and then a couple of intermediates before heading to Talladega.

But it's also the stretch of eight straight tracks that the series has already visited this year. So it's time to use what we've learned. I hope you've been studying.

At New Hampshire, I like one driver near the top of the Chase to stay near the top, while I like a guy near the bottom to start making his way back up.

Earlier this year, it was Ryan Newman getting the win at New Hampshire in a race in which he had the most laps led and best driver rating. But I like his owner and teammate, Tony Stewart, to excel Sunday.

Dating back to 2005, Stewart leads the field in fastest laps run, and has the fastest average speed early in runs and in traffic. Plus, despite finishing second to Newman, Stewart has the best overall speed, plus the most fastest laps run.

And in the category that appeared to be Smoke's great weakness, speed late in runs (in which he ranks sixth since 2005), he was the strongest in the field earlier this year.

But don't rule out Mr. Four-Time, Jeff Gordon. Despite a ho-hum 11th-place finish at Loudon earlier this year, Gordon was running fourth with 10 percent of the race left.

Since 2005, Gordon ranks in the top four in all speed categories at New Hampshire, including first in overall speed and second in speed in traffic.

With six championships among them, I expect one of those two to come out on top Sunday (and hopefully not Monday again).

The Eliminator: New Hampshire

Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking a name off the top of their head. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. The last nine fall New Hampshire winners had a top-15 finish in the last Richmond race (31 drivers eliminated, 15 remaining).

2. The last five New Hampshire winners had a top-seven finish in the previous Sprint Cup race (10 eliminated, five remaining).

3. The last four New Hampshire winners finished 14th or better in the previous two New Hampshire races (three eliminated, two remaining).

4. The last four New Hampshire winners had a top-10 in the last Phoenix race (one eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Kurt Busch

Ryan McGee tweeted it best when he wrote: "If the Chase is really a microcosm of the regular season, of course we'd start with a fuel mileage race."

Only instead of an upset winner, we had Tony Stewart, who had a strong car all race.

It started the Chase in a topsy-turvy way. Of the bottom four drivers in points entering Chicago, three had top-5 finishes. Of the top four drivers in points entering Chicago, three finished outside the top 20.

For those who finished outside the top 10, that might be their only chance at a slip-up over the next few months. In each of the past two years, Jimmie Johnson won the title with nine top-10 finishes. In the two years before that, it took a mere eight top-10s.

Plus, with the new points system punishing poor finishes more severely than before, it puts drivers in a hole. Denny Hamlin, 41 back, is about a full race behind after the Chase opener.

Another year, another win

Last year, it took 25 races for Stewart to register his first win. This year, he got there in 27. But Stewart just finds a way to win.

This is his 13th straight season with a win, the longest streak since Jeff Gordon won a race in 14 straight from 1994-2007.

What makes Stewart's streak remarkable is that he's never gone a season without winning a race, something that no driver with that many Cup seasons can say.

Trivia break! What two drivers hold the modern-era record for most consecutive years with a win?

Forty wins the hard way

Stewart is the 17th driver to 40 Cup wins, the fourth full-time active driver to reach the mark, joining Gordon, Johnson and Mark Martin.

It's a new age in NASCAR, one in which more drivers win regularly than in the past, so take this note with an asterisk:

Stewart got his 40th win in his 455th start, the second-most starts needed to reach 40 wins in Cup history. The only driver to take more is Martin, who needed 749.

Trivia break! Before Martin and Stewart, who needed the most starts to reach 40 wins?

Sixteen and counting ...

Stewart was the 16th winner this season in just 27 Cup races. You know I love variety.

The 27 races is tied for the third-fastest to 16 different winners in Cup history, trailing only 2003 (25) and 1961 (26).

Trivia break! In 2003, who was that 16th different winner in the 25th race? Hint: It happened in the Southern 500.

Power Rankings

I wanted a way to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis. So I came up with my own little nerdy formula, using recent performance this season, along with recent performance at the specific track.

Remember, this isn't for the Chase as a whole, only heading into New Hampshire.

1. Kurt Busch
2. Jeff Gordon
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Tony Stewart
5. Carl Edwards
6. Ryan Newman
7. Kevin Harvick
8. Denny Hamlin
9. Kyle Busch
10. Brad Keselowski
11. Matt Kenseth
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Trivia break answers

1. Ricky Rudd and Rusty Wallace both won races in 16 straight seasons.

2. Bill Elliott needed 430 starts to reach 40 wins.

3. Terry Labonte was the 16th different winner in 2003.

Ah, here we are at the Chase, and I do believe it's my time to shine.

But, how much can we depend on past numbers to judge performance at Chicagoland Speedway. After all, this is the first time it's been the first race of the Chase. And unlike past races, this one will be run during the day instead of at night.

Plus, a September race in Chicago is bound to have different temperatures and different track conditions than on a hot, slippery July night.

But let's try to break down some of the notable Chase contenders using past numbers at Chicago, starting with Mr. Five-Time himself, Jimmie Johnson.

This is one of the rare tracks where Johnson has never won, but in seven of his nine starts there, he has finished eighth or better, including a pair of runner-up finishes. But in two of the past four years, Johnson has struggled and finished 37th (2007) and 25th (2010).

Johnson leads all drivers dating back to 2005 in average start and average midrace position at Chicago, but his average finish in that time is 13.5. Speed isn't a problem: His 187 fastest laps run paces the field, with Matt Kenseth (156) and Tony Stewart (124) the only other drivers over 100.

Speaking of Smoke, I'm not ready to rule him out of the Chase, despite his uninspiring performance this year. But Stewart has shown the ability to drop the hammer this time of year, even when he has entered the playoff struggling.

In 2006, Stewart missed the Chase but responded by winning three playoff races, and he finished second and fourth in two others.

It might not matter where Stewart starts, either. Since 2005, his pass differential at Chicago is a plus-141, better than double the next best on the list, Carl Edwards' plus-70.

What about the quiet one, Matt Kenseth? Kenseth is quietly solid in every situation at Chicago, and has shown the speed to win on the 1.5-mile track this season.

Kenseth is third in green-flag speed, speed in traffic and the second-fastest driver late in runs behind Stewart. Kenseth's Chicago finishes over the past couple of years haven't been anything special, but he led a lot of laps in both 2005 and 2006.

Finally, Jeff Gordon has finished second and third at Chicago the last couple of years, and he certainly has more speed this year than the last couple. Expect him to be up front all race, as he didn't fall outside the top 15 in either of the last two Chicago races.

The Eliminator: Chicagoland

Most people just pick winners, some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. The last six Chicago winners finished in the top 11 in the previous Chicago race (37 eliminated, 11 remaining).

2. The first Chase race always has been won by a Chase driver (five eliminated, six remaining).

3. The last three Chicago winners finished 17th or better in each of the two previous Chicago races (three eliminated, three remaining).

4. Three of the last four Sprint Cup Series winners this season finished in the top three in the previous week's race (two eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Carl Edwards.

It should be pretty widely accepted that this is the best sports time of the year. We have the Chase, the start of college and pro football, baseball pennant races, and so on.

But, I'm here to talk Chase, since that's probably why you clicked on me. (Thanks for clicking on me.)

Let's talk about how juicy this Chase is. I'm talking nicely-seared, but still moist on the inside. Who wants to join me for a steak?

First, you have Jimmie Johnson. Formerly known as vanilla, Johnson suddenly has himself a heated rivalry with another champ, 2004 title winner Kurt Busch.

I'd say something about Kurt Busch here, but I haven't quite finished this article yet, and I'm worried he might tear it up before I can send it in, like he did here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is back in the Chase after a two-year absence. Junior's not showing the speed of his teammates right now, but, like Lloyd Christmas said in "Dumb and Dumber," "So you're telling me there's a chance? Yeah!"

And while five-time's going to try to become six-time, there's another driver looking to join Johnson, Dale Earnhardt and Richard Petty as drivers with at least five Cup titles, and that's Jeff Gordon.

Let me break it down for you -- numbers style.

Stay Away From the Top

The No. 1 seed for this year's Chase will be Kyle Busch, and his history from that slot isn't great.

Think back to 2008, when Busch came in looking like the man to beat, already having won eight races.

But his Chase started with finishes of 34th, 43rd and 28th, making him an afterthought.

This year, the talk is of the new Kyle Busch. Hopefully, he has a short memory.

Trivia break: Who is the only driver to win the Chase after starting outside the top three in points?

Feels Like the First Time

Brad Keselowski is the only first-time Chaser in this year's field, and like Busch, that hasn't been a good slot to be in.

In 2010, there were no first-time Chasers, but in the previous year, we had two, Juan Pablo Montoya and Brian Vickers. Montoya finished the Chase eighth in points, while Vickers was 12th.

Trivia break: Since the Chase expanded to 12 drivers in 2007, who has the best finish by a first-time Chaser?

What it Takes

So, having analyzed the numbers, here's what I think it'll take to win the Chase.

It might not take wins, four of the past seven Chases have been won by a driver winning one or fewer Chase races.

Over the past four years, Jimmie Johnson has averaged 6.5 top-5s and 8.5 top-10s en route to the title. His average finish was a 5.9 and he didn't record a single DNF.

It's a tall task, but one driver has to be up to it.

Trivia break: Who is the only driver to win a Chase without winning a Chase race that same season?

Chase Power Rankings

I wanted to come up with something to rank the strength of the Chase drivers on a race-by-race basis.

So I came up with my own little nerdy formula, using recent performance this season, along with recent performance at the track.

Remember, this isn't for the rest of the Chase, only heading into Chicago.

1. Jeff Gordon
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Carl Edwards
4. Tony Stewart
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Kyle Busch
7. Matt Kenseth
8. Denny Hamlin
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Ryan Newman
11. Kurt Busch
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Trivia Break Answers

1) Kurt Busch started the 2004 Chase seventh but won the title.
2) Clint Bowyer was third in 2007.
3 Tony Stewart won the 2005 title without winning a Chase race.

Since 1980, we've run only two races on a Tuesday. In 2007, for Kurt Busch's win at Michigan, I didn't have a blog. This time, I do have a blog, and a splendid one at that.

But given the short turnaround between a Tuesday race and a Saturday night cutoff race for the Chase, a special-edition combo blog is necessary. Never again (for this week) will you have to choose between my prerace blog and my postrace blog!

We have no shortage of awesome notes coming out of Atlanta, but since I've talked at length about the wild-card race -- and I'll get to Jeff Gordon in a bit -- I'd like to quickly touch on Jimmie Johnson.

I know he has only one win this season, and in each of his previous five championship seasons he had at least three wins at this point in the season. But Johnson already has displayed the consistency that has become his trademark during the Chase.

His 9.8 average finish is his best mark since his inaugural title year of 2006. And he's leading in points with one race to go until the Chase, something he didn't do in any of his championship years.

So, don't let the one win fool you -- this could be Johnson's strongest year to date.

Looking back

You might've heard that Tuesday was Jeff Gordon's 85th career Cup series win, something only a couple of legends, Richard Petty and David Pearson, have also accomplished.

What's remarkable is that these three hit their marks in different fashions. Petty, for example, got many of his wins before the modern era, in seasons when there were 50 or more races a year. Most would not run every week, but Petty would, and often beat fields that he simply outclassed.

Pearson ran for the championship only four times, and won the title in three of those. He spent the bulk of his strong years running for the Wood Brothers, picking and choosing which races to run.

Gordon got his wins in a totally different era, one in which drivers run the full season, and one in which the fields are more equal.

That being said, Petty reached 85 wins in his 411th race, Pearson did it in his 430th, while Gordon's 85th win came in his 642nd race. Number of starts aside, those three drivers took different paths to reach 85.

Looking ahead

Now we move to Richmond for the pre-Chase finale, with nine of the 12 Chase spots locked up. Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Tony Stewart just need to come home with a good, but not great, finish to clinch.

Denny Hamlin sits in the second wild-card spot and seems to have a lock on a berth unless there's an unlikely winner at Richmond. But I think Hamlin could be the guy to get that second win. He's won this race the past two years and has run the most fastest laps and led nearly 27 percent of total laps dating to 2005. His average finish in that span is a 7.5, but it should be even better. His average running position is a nifty 5.2, and his average midrace position is a 2.5.

Plus, Gibbs drivers have won the past five Richmond races, between Hamlin and Kyle Busch.

The Eliminator: Richmond

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats, and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. The last six September Richmond winners had won earlier in the season (32 eliminated, 14 left).

2. The last 12 Richmond winners came from the top 10 in points (six eliminated, eight remaining).

3. The last five and seven of the past eight Richmond winners finished in the top 15 in the previous Richmond race (four eliminated, four remaining).

4. The last six Richmond winners finished in the top three in the prior year's race (two eliminated, two remaining).

5. The last three Sprint Cup Series race winners finished in the top three in the previous week's race (one eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Jimmie Johnson.

We're just two races before the Chase, and while wins are important, let's think big picture: the drivers fighting for a spot in the playoff and a shot at the championship.

Although some haven't officially locked up Chase spots, I'll call the top eight drivers in the standings locks. And Brad Keselowski's three wins also put him in, although he might still race his way into the top 10 and get the bonus points for those wins.

Where does that leave us? I think drivers ninth to 23rd in points have a realistic shot to make the Chase -- or fall out. If Keselowski races his way into the top 10, it might come down to several drivers with a single win for the final spots.

How should we judge? With this weekend's race at Atlanta, I'll look at the 1.5-mile tracks we've visited this year. Not all are equal, but it's a good starting point.

Among the group mentioned above, Tony Stewart could take a big step forward toward clinching. He's the defending race winner, and his average driver rating in the five 1.5-mile tracks this season is tops among those ranked ninth to 23 in points.

Who else? How about Greg Biffle? The Biff has just one top-5 finish this year, but in three of the five 1.5-mile races this season, he's had a driver rating in the top seven, and in the other two, never worse than 15th.

David Ragan could surprise, too. Even though he's just outside the top 20 in points, he had a top-5 driver rating earlier this year at Texas and Charlotte.

Let's flip it and talk about who could struggle. No driver between ninth and 23rd in points had a worse average driver rating this season in the 1.5-mile races than Mark Martin, with a 63.4. To compare, Stewart's leading mark was a 100.4. Martin's driver rating never ranked in the top 20 in any of those five races.

Clint Bowyer has Chase experience, but he might have to lean on Richmond. In four of the five 1.5-mile races this season, his driver rating was under 80, each time ranking outside the top 15 in the field.

Phew, that was a lot of info. Sit back, digest it, prepare yourself for Atlanta, and enjoy my Eliminator!

The Eliminator: Atlanta edition

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking names off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners; I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

1. The last 19 Atlanta winners entered the race 19th or higher in points (28 eliminated, 19 remaining).

2. The last five and eight of the last nine Atlanta winners had at least 10 previous career wins (five eliminated, 14 remaining).

3. The last eight and 11 of the last 12 Atlanta winners finished in the top 12 in the most recent California race (five eliminated, nine remaining).

4. The last six fall Atlanta winners finished in the top 11 in the most recent Michigan race (five eliminated, four remaining).

5. The last five fall Atlanta winners finished in the top 11 in the most recent Las Vegas race (one eliminated, three remaining).

6. The last five and eight of the last nine Atlanta winners had a previous Atlanta win. (two eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Carl Edwards.

I decided to ride out the Saturday night portion of Hurricane Irene (my thoughts and prayers go out to everyone affected) at ESPN, watching the Bristol race with ESPN NASCAR analyst Ricky Craven.

As the race played out and Brad Keselowski took the lead, we discussed how wild the Chase wild-card race would become if Keselowski caught and passed Tony Stewart for 10th in the standings.

If that happens, it's blown wide open. Denny Hamlin would comfortably sit in one wild-card spot, but the other one becomes up for grabs. Paul Menard sits in 20th, with David Ragan and Marcos Ambrose right behind and all of them have one victory this season. Any could fall in or out of the top 20. And whoever finishes highest among the three could get in.

Then there are a lot of quality drivers who could be in "win and you're in" mode at Richmond, including Stewart, Greg Biffle, Clint Bowyer, Kasey Kahne and Mark Martin.

The possibilities are endless, and that's just how I like them. Give me unpredictability and wildness, you know, everything I don't like about the weather.

But the man who could create the most havoc is Saturday's winner, Keselowski, and it's time to write more about him.

Three's Company

Saturday's win wasn't just impressive because it was Keselowski's third of the season, but his consistently hot streak continued with his fourth consecutive top-three finish.

And thanks to NASCAR's sultan of stats, Mike Forde, for providing me numbers, we know Keselowski is the first driver to pull off that feat this season. There was only one streak of that kind in 2010, by Jimmie Johnson, and no one did it in 2009.

If Keselowski gets a fifth straight top-three, he'll be the first driver to do that since Kyle Busch in 2008.

Trivia break: Other than Busch, who were the other two drivers with streaks of four straight top-three finishes since 2000?

From Zero to Three

Saturday was Keselowski's third win this year, impressive considering he was 25th in points last season and didn't finish better than 10th in a race.

In the Cup Series modern era (since 1972), only one other driver won at least three races following a season in which he ran the full schedule but finished 25th or lower in points. That was Kurt Busch in 2002. He was 27th in 2001, and by 2004, he was Cup Series champion.

Only five drivers total since 1972 finished outside the top 20 one season when running a full schedule, and then won three or more races the next season.

Trivia break: Before Keselowski, who was the last driver to win three times after finishing lower than 20th in the standings the previous season? (hint: it was in the last three seasons)

The Penske File

The day after Keselowski won, Penske's Will Power won the IndyCar Series race at Sonoma.

I heard an interesting fact on the race broadcast, and with help from my right-hand man, Chris Lees (he literally sits to my right), we were able to confirm and extend the note.

It was the first time Penske drivers swept those two races in a single weekend since Jeremy Mayfield and Helio Castroneves did it in June 2000.

Before that, it had been done nine previous times, all with Rusty Wallace and a variety of IndyCar drivers.

Trivia break: Who were the three IndyCar drivers who swept weekends along with Wallace?

Trivia Break Answers

1) Jimmie Johnson did it twice, and Bobby Labonte once.
2) Jamie McMurray was 22nd in 2009, but won three races in 2010.
3) Emerson Fittipaldi, Paul Tracy and Al Unser Jr. all finished weekend sweeps with Wallace.

The debate rages on for the new Bristol versus the old Bristol. Well, let me step in and play peacemaker by telling you the new Bristol is still pretty wild.

For one, you have the side-by-side racing replacing the previous style, in which if you weren't on the bottom of the track, you just watched car after car pass by. But for those of you looking for chaos, there's still plenty to be had.

Trevor Ebaugh and the rest of the ESPN Stats & Information team crunched the numbers, analyzed the tape and gave us some great information on the wildness at Bristol, and I pass that along to you. They're a smart bunch.

Since 2008, after the track's reconfiguration, we've seen 11.6 cars per race involved in multicar accidents, more than a quarter of the field. That's the fourth-most of any track, and second-most among non-plate tracks, behind Martinsville.

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ESPN Stats & Research

The driver most in trouble could be Kevin Harvick. Dating back to 2005, Harvick's been involved in eight wrecks resulting in a caution flag, two more than any other driver. Clint Bowyer and Ryan Newman, gunning for Chase spots, are tied for second with six.

The multiple grooves at Bristol create side-by-side action, therefore we should all be on the edge of our seats.

In March 2010, there was a 13-car accident at Bristol, the second-biggest at the track dating back to 1990, trailing only a 14-car wreck in the spring 2005 race.

So even though the bump-and-run isn't the only move at Bristol anymore, you're still going to get the fender-crunching action.

Now, let me blow your mind about not what to expect, but when to expect it.

You probably think the action's going to be at its wildest in the final part of the race, but it's quite the opposite.

Since 1990, the most accidents at Bristol have taken place in the first 50 laps, while the final 50 laps have seen the fewest accidents resulting in a caution flag.

So if you say you miss the old Bristol, don't fret, the new Bristol is still pretty similar to the old Bristol, only with side-by-side racing.

The Eliminator: Bristol

Most people just pick winners -- some by hunches, some by stats and some by just picking a name off the top of their heads. I don't pick winners, I pick losers. I'll make my race pick by telling you why all but one driver in the field just can't win.

And if you doubt the system, I did have Kyle Busch last week at Michigan.

1) The last 18 Bristol winners had a previous top-four finish at the track (25 drivers eliminated, 21 remaining).

2) The last 12 Bristol winners finished 16th or better in the last Bristol race (seven eliminated, 14 remaining).

3) Eight of the last nine and 12 of the last 14 Bristol winners finished in the top 12 in the last Richmond race (nine eliminated, five remaining).

4) The last 10 August Bristol winners finished ninth or better in last year's August Bristol race (three eliminated, two remaining).

5) The last five and seven of the last eight August Bristol winners had a win earlier in the season (one eliminated, one remaining).

Your winner: Kyle Busch