If you are following the NBA this season, you've noticed that few first-round picks are making a regular contribution to their teams. The No. 1 pick, John Wall, has missed 11 games with injuries. The No. 2 selection, the 76ers' Evan Turner, has been benched. The No. 6 selection, Ekpe Udoh, has just gotten on the court for the Warriors after a six-month rehab from wrist surgery.
We've come to expect that most rookies are not ready to help a good NBA team win games. So, given the dearth of ready-to-play talent, NBA teams are selecting for the future. It's the equivalent of the MLB draft, where projection and potential are more important that current performance. So when I say someone is ready to get drafted, it doesn't necessarily mean that player will provide an instant contribution to the team that selects him.
Here are some guys who are ready to be drafted high in June and some guys who shouldn't think about the NBA right now, but, instead, should concentrate on getting ready in the future.
They are Ready
Chris Singleton, 6-foot-9, Junior, Florida State
Few players helped their stock more this summer than Singleton. Solid performances at the LeBron James Skills Academy and with the USA Select Team that practiced against Mike Krzyzewski's FIBA World Championship team left a positive impression with most NBA evaluators, especially defensively.
In the two games I saw Singleton in person, it is clear that given his size, athleticism, quickness, anticipation and desire to compete, he can defend three NBA positions right now: shooting guard, small forward and power forward. In fact, he is in the top 60 in the country in blocked shot rate and steal rate and, earlier in the year, he completed the first triple-double in ACC history that included points, rebounds and blocks.
Against Ohio State, Singleton helped hold freshman sensation Jared Sullinger to 11 points on 3-of-9 shooting and the Buckeyes, overall, to 32 percent shooting. His five steals and three blocks were a source of disruption all night.
The downside right now for Singleton is that he is not a skilled offensive player. He can shoot the standstill 3-point shot because he has good form and should improve enough to become a serviceable threat from the perimeter. However, his ball skills are fair and he does not play through contact inside but "babies" the ball to the rim.
For a former McDonald's All-American to embrace being a great defensive player requires a low ego. So it is a positive that Singleton will not need the ball when he gets to the NBA. Given that he is a high character guy, he should embrace his role nicely. The confidence he picked up guarding guys like Kevin Durant and Andre Iguodala will help, as well. He is ready to be selected in the Top 15.
Marcus Morris, 6-9, Junior, Kansas
Morris is on his way to an All-America junior season because he is one of the most multiskilled players at the forward position in the country. He can shoot the ball and play away from the basket, passes well with excellent basketball acumen and can, obviously, score inside and rebound. Because it's likely going to be hard to play a whole lot better as a senior, Morris' draft stock after this season will, likely, be at its zenith. So he's ready.
Now for the bad news: What makes Morris an effective college player may hurt him as an NBA prospect. He will likely be seen as too small to constantly battle inside and not quick enough to chase NBA small forwards around the court every night. He will have to get stronger and his commitment to defending will have to improve. Depending on the number of international and freshmen prospects that enter the draft, Morris should still find himself going before No. 20.
Perry Jones, 6-11, Freshman, Baylor
There will definitely be a learning curve for Jones when he gets to the NBA, but, in another weak draft this coming June, he is ready to be picked very, very early because of his enormous talent and long-term potential. But, in keeping with the baseball draft references, Jones is a phenom who could use some minor league seasoning but will be on the major league roster immediately.
Jones has been compared to a young Tracy McGrady because of his ballhandling ability but, more aptly, he has the positional size, athleticism and skill level to, one day, be an excellent NBA power forward. Right now, however, he doesn't yet play with the confidence of someone with his immense ability. He's quietly averaging 14 points and nine rebounds for Baylor.
It is highly likely that Jones will be drafted in the first three picks, but to ask him to carry an NBA team in the foreseeable future is to ask for something that won't happen. However, on talent and attitude alone, he's ready to be selected that high.
Jared Sullinger, 6-9, Freshman, Ohio State
The NBA is full of crafty, below-the-rim power forwards like Utah's Paul Millsap and Houston's Luis Scola, so there is going to be a place for the relentless Buckeyes freshman. Many considered him the best high school player in the country last year, and a month into this season he's proven to be one of the best college players, as well.
I witnessed Sullinger's worst game of the season against the NBA-sized Florida State front line. While he struggled, Sullinger battled on every possession around the basket and still ended up with 11 points and 13 rebounds. Since going to school on that substandard performance, he's averaged almost 25 points and 10 rebounds, including a 40-point, 13-board game against IUPUI.
In addition to his brute strength and great hands around the basket, Sullinger, the son of a high school coach, has a great feel for the game and has dominated and won at every level. His intangibles, attitude and work ethic are off the charts. Could he use another year of polishing up his game at Ohio State? Yes. But he's destined to be, at worst, a terrific rotation player in the NBA. He plays winning basketball and there is a premium on that quality in any NBA draft. He'll find himself taken in the first half of the draft.
David Lighty, 6-5, Senior, Ohio State
The Buckeyes' Lighty is going to be drafted in the second round and he is going to make an NBA roster next season, so he's ready. On a 15-man NBA roster, he'll be a coach's dream because he will come to practice every day with a smile on his face.
Lighty, who was a key role player on Ohio State's 2007 Final Four team, will be an NBA shooting guard who will have the athletic ability and basketball intelligence to defend his position. He will be what I call a "no mistake" defender. That is someone who is always in the right position, understands the scouting report and gives a great effort every time out. Raja Bell of the Utah Jazz should be his model.
While Lighty needs to continue to hone his perimeter shot -- he's 33 percent from behind the arc this year -- he has a high assist rate and a low turnover rate. In addition, he has proven in his five years at Ohio State that he can fit in with great players, but also has scored big on numerous occasions during his career. Earlier this season, Lighty dropped 29 points on the Florida Gators in a decisive Buckeyes win.
Not Ready
Jeffrey Taylor, 6-7, Junior, Vanderbilt
Taylor's athleticism has certainly gotten people excited about his NBA prospects during his first two and a half seasons in Nashville. And he has certainly been a productive SEC player in that time -- he's currently averaging 13 points and five rebounds a game. Those are very close to his career numbers at Vanderbilt.
Here is Taylor's issue right now: He gets most of his points in transition, off offensive rebounds or from cuts to the basket. Unfortunately, at his size in the NBA he will be asked to be a full-time perimeter player and his ball skills and outside shooting do not yet measure up. While he is currently shooting 38 percent from the college 3-point line in a 29-shot sample this season, he is a career 26 percent shooter from behind the arc. His turnover rate is 23.0 percent and his career assist-to-turnover ratio is below 1:1.
Taylor has more room to improve and my suggestion would be to stay in school another season and have an All-America-type of senior year, because he's not ready.
Tyler Honeycutt, 6-8, Sophomore, UCLA
Right now, Honeycutt is hanging his hat on one monster 33-point, nine-rebound performance at Kansas. I saw it in person. It was a monster performance, as he drilled six-of-seven 3-point shots while draped with Jayhawks. However, since that night, Honeycutt has averaged a little under 12 points a game against much more pedestrian opponents.
Honeycutt is a good athlete but currently weighs 188 pounds and would be overwhelmed by the physicality at his position in the NBA. He is averaging under three free throw attempts a game and drawing about three fouls a game. In addition, he has a very loose offensive skill package as evidenced by a 24 percent turnover rate.
Granted, Honeycutt is in a situation at UCLA without a pure point guard to get him great looks in the Bruins' offense. But that makes it more important for him, then, to create his own shot. He's not ready.
Tobias Harris, 6-8, Freshman, Tennessee
Like Sullinger, Harris was considered one of the top high school players in the country a year ago. And, while he hasn't had the same impact on the college game because he doesn't possess Sullinger's beef, Harris has certainly been one of the most productive freshmen in college basketball, so far.
Harris' versatility for a big man has been impressive. He can put the ball on the floor in the open court, can get to the basket from the perimeter and is drawing more than six fouls a game. In addition, he has made almost 50 percent of his 3-point shots early in the season. And he's got a body that will fill out, because at 220 pounds, there is more strength that needs to be added to his game -- and his frame.
Harris, in my opinion, is 30 pounds from being able to realistically compete with top NBA players and that 30 pounds will take two more years to add. My advice is to stick around for a while because there's not a spot to help an NBA team right now. He's not ready.