There will be great discussion in the draft rooms of NBA teams in the lottery about the shooting guard position. While Kansas' Ben McLemore has been seen as the top prospect at the position for much of the season, the rapid improvement of Victor Oladipo will make teams take a long look at the former Indiana Hoosier as well.
In many ways, whether McLemore or Oladipo ends up as the top shooting guard prospect on a team's board will depend on how each player's skills fit that team's needs. Let's break down each of their games before I give my take on which one I would select, if given the choice.
The favorite
Ben McLemore, Kansas Jayhawks
The coaching staff at Kansas refers to the 6-foot-5 McLemore as "The Natural" because of the effortless way he seems to play. After redshirting his first season, he stepped into the Jayhawks' lineup and, by the end of the season, shattered Danny Manning's freshman scoring records.
I believe that McLemore ranks among both the top three athletes and top three shooters in this draft, in addition to having the positional size to be a shooting guard in the NBA. He recorded nearly 50 dunks this season and shot 42 percent from behind the arc. He should have no trouble adjusting to the NBA-distance 3-point line because he has excellent range due to his explosiveness.
There are holes in McLemore's game, however. He has not proved to be a good enough ball handler to create his own shot, and he has particular trouble driving to his left. In addition, despite a number of explosive performances through the season, there is a lack of aggressiveness about his offensive mindset that creeps into his game from time to time.
The alternative
Victor Oladipo, Indiana Hoosiers
Oladipo might have been the most improved player in college basketball over his three seasons at Indiana. He has a relentless work ethic, which combined with his elite athleticism has turned him into a lottery pick. But he is a completely different type of shooting guard.
First of all, Oladipo's offensive output primarily consists of hustle points. At 6-4, 61 percent of his field goal attempts were in the lane. He was terrific in transition, grabbed a lot of garbage baskets off offensive rebounds and slashed hard to the basket in the half court. While I love his high motor, I am not convinced he'll get those energy baskets as easily in the NBA.
While Oladipo certainly improved his outside shooting, making 44 percent of his 3-point shots as a junior, the sample was not a large one. He made two 3-point shots in a game on just three occasions last season. In his final 12 games as a Hoosier, he was 9-for-29 behind the arc.
Two other areas of weakness in Oladipo's offensive arsenal are his passing ability and his screen-and-roll aptitude. Given how much Indiana's program is based on skill development, and knowing how hard of a worker he is, these are clearly areas that it would attempt to correct during practices. But these are likely only minor red flags for an NBA team in a draft with few sure bets.
Oladipo's unique combination of athleticism and intensity will manifest itself on the defensive end. His 4.55 percent steal rate (according to kenpom.com) is a reflection of that combination. And in a defensive system that prides itself on not just steals but deflections, he was a demon. In the first half of a January game versus Michigan State, he disrupted the Spartans' offense with 15 first-half deflections.
Ultimately, the team that drafts Oladipo will be getting an athletic on-ball defender who has been nurtured in a team-oriented defensive system. In addition, it will be getting an outstanding open-court player who attacks with relentless energy. And it gets a player likely to keep improving because of his intense work ethic.
Outlook
If I were choosing between McLemore and Oladipo, I would take McLemore.
Why? Because I feel that he is one of the few players in this draft who has to potential to make multiple All-Star teams.
The shooting guard position calls for someone who can make shots, and McLemore can do that. He is a graceful, above-average NBA-level athlete, and after one season at Kansas, he is merely in the infancy of his basketball development.
I was in attendance at a Jayhawks practice during the middle of last season, and about an hour after it had ended, McLemore was still on the court at Allen Fieldhouse working on his game. When I asked a Kansas manager how common it was that McLemore stayed afterward like that, he replied, "Every day." That level of effort, combined with his natural gifts, bodes well for his NBA future.