Cooper Flagg's second NBA season could be the one that turns the promising young star into one of the best players in the league -- both in real life and in fantasy.
After averaging 21.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 4.5 APG on his way to Rookie of the Year honors last season, Flagg has a chance to make another leap in Year 2 -- but what will it take, and how high is his ceiling? And, along those lines, how does the return of Kyrie Irving impact Flagg?
We asked ESPN fantasy basketball experts Andre Snellings and Eric Moody for their thoughts on the face of the Dallas Mavericks.
How big of a leap do you expect Flagg to make in his second season?
Snellings: I expect Flagg to make a big leap this season, specifically as a scorer. Scoring is the best of his wide array of skills, but as a rookie his then-head coach Jason Kidd asked Flagg to play point guard. While this experience probably helped his all-around game, it came at the expense of his ability to be aggressive in getting his own shot. This season, playing more off-the-ball with the green light to score, Flagg could approach 30 PPG while still maintaining solid-to-strong peripherals.
Moody: Flagg has the potential to make his first All-Star team this season. I could see him increasing his per game averages from his rookie season in points, rebounds and assists. He had three games with at least 45 points last season and is already showing signs of another leap. Flagg scored 32 points in the season opener against the Houston Rockets and had 29 points and 11 assists against the Miami Heat on Monday night. He's only 19 years old, and I expect him to become a more efficient scorer with another year of experience and a better supporting cast.
What does he need to do to maximize his potential?
Snellings: Flagg needs to be aggressive at both ends of the court. On offense, he needs to be ready to attack the rim, draw fouls and finish in the paint on any given possession. The threat of his attack will free up his jump shot and also create passing opportunities to leave to more assist opportunities. Flagg should be a willing rebounder, but the Mavericks have so much size he likely won't regularly dominate the glass. But on defense, he should be just as aggressive at playing the passing lanes and defending the rim. Remember, in college he led Duke in steals and blocks, as well as in points, rebounds and assists.
Moody: Flagg's outside shooting is the biggest area for improvement. Flagg shot just 29.5% from 3-point range last season, and defenders were comfortable giving him space on the perimeter. If he can improve that number to around 35%, it'll open up more opportunities for him to attack the basket. I'd also like to see Flagg become more selective with his midrange attempts. He's already an excellent passer and defender, and his ability to create his own shot is impressive for someone his age. Improving his shooting efficiency would take Flagg's offensive game to another level.
How does adding Irving, after a missed season, change things for Flagg?
Snellings: Adding Irving back into the mix allows Flagg to play with simultaneously the best point guard as well as the best shooting bucket-getter of his career. This should amplify all parts of Flagg's offensive game. Irving can pull in defensive attention then set Flagg up with more open looks from the places he likes to score than he ever got as a rookie. Also, Irving's ability to knock down shots from all over the court or attack imbalanced defenses off one- or two- dribbles should increase Flagg's assist potential. With both on the court, the opposing defense has two players that require extra attention, making life easier for both.
Moody: Irving's return should make a significant difference. Flagg spent considerable time playing point guard as a rookie because Dallas lacked established playmakers. Now Irving can handle much of that responsibility while drawing defensive attention away from Flagg. That should create more opportunities for Flagg to attack closeouts, cut to the basket and score without having to create everything himself. I'm also interested in seeing how Dusty May uses them together in pick-and-roll situations. Flagg might not have the ball in his hands quite as often, but that doesn't necessarily mean less production. His scoring efficiency could improve considerably.
Who do you see as a historic example of what Flagg could be this season?
Snellings: For player statistical comps, I look to two of Flagg's fellow Duke Blue Devil predecessors: Grant Hill and Jayson Tatum. All three are do-everything wings with forward size and guard-like skills. But I think Flagg's statistical output is more advanced than either Hill's or Tatum's were in their second seasons. I could see Flagg's production this season as a combo between Hill's sixth season (25.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG) and Tatum's fifth (26.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.6 BPG). An average of those two stat lines gives a reasonable expected value for Flagg, though Flagg is a slightly better shotblocker than either and could have a bit more upside as a scorer.
Moody: LeBron James' second season is the example that comes to mind. LeBron averaged 20.9 PPG as a rookie before jumping to 27.2 PPG, 7.4 RPG and 7.2 APG in Year 2. I'm not saying Flagg will become LeBron, but both entered the league with an unusual ability to impact games as scorers, rebounders and playmakers. Flagg also brings excellent defensive instincts. What stands out to me is how comfortable he already looks against NBA competition. I believe we're going to see him take a similar step toward becoming one of the league's best all-around players.
Is there a future bet you'd make on Flagg this season?
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Snellings: I would bet for Flagg to make an All-NBA team at solid plus-money, +600. Making an All-NBA team is fairly rare for a second year player; only 10 second-year players have made it since 1989, with the most recent being Luka Doncic. But Doncic did it as a Maverick, perhaps paving the way for Flagg. If he is able to average between 25 and 30 PPG with strong peripheral numbers, stay healthy enough to meet the minimum 65 games and lead the Mavericks into playoffs contention, Flagg has a reasonable chance to follow in Doncic's All NBA footsteps at only 20 years old.
Moody: I'd take a small shot on Flagg to win Most Improved Player at 70-1. He averaged 21.0 PPG as a rookie, but there's a realistic path to him averaging 26.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 6.0 APG this season. The last five winners of this award increased their scoring averages by at least 5.6 PPG, so Flagg might need to get closer to 27.0 PPG to strengthen his case. The challenge is that voters might view a big second-year jump from the reigning Rookie of the Year as expected. But if Flagg becomes an All-Star and puts Dallas in playoff contention, that could change the conversation. At these odds, I believe he's worth a small wager.