In the wake of Russia's stunning, come-from-behind victory over Canada one question remained unasked: how did a team of mostly undrafted Russian 19-year-olds beat a bunch of Canadian players who were quickly snapped up by NHL teams in their first year of eligibility?
The Russians were all 1991 birthdays, the only team built that way. Other squads split pretty evenly between '91s and '92s. So the Russians brought the oldest team in the tournament. They also brought the biggest team in the tournament. (And spare me any e-mails about the listed heights and weights of the Russians. Vladimir Tarasenko was listed at 172 pounds and he might be that with one foot on the scale.) We stayed at the same hotel, stood across from them at press scrums and the notion that they were the same size as the other teams didn't pass the eyeball test. The Russians were men, the rest boys. Against Canada, at least two out of three 50-50 pucks ended up in Russian possession. With indifferent goaltending that's a recipe for disaster for team with the maple leafs on their jerseys.
In Tarasenko and Yevgeni Kuznetsov, the Russians had the two players in the tournament who could create and finish chances and both lived up to their first-round selections (St. Louis Blues and Washington Capitals, respectively). But the third best Russian forward in the tournament, Denis Golubev, is undrafted. Now Golubev isn't Tarasenko or Kuznetsov; there's a drop to be sure. Still, Golubev scored big goals -- including the shootout winner against Sweden -- and compared favorably with high draft picks on the Canadian and Swedish roster. He's a tank on the ice. Why wasn't he drafted by someone, even with a seventh-round flyer? Did NHL teams miss him and the other Russian skaters? Or did they just break through at age 19?
"No, these aren't players who just appeared on the scene -- they've been on the radar for a while," says Paul Fenton, the assistant general manager of the Nashville Predators.
What Fenton and others will tell you is that there's a chance that players from this Russian team would be topics of conversation in NHL team meetings going on this month.
"Washington and (the Los Angeles Kings) are two teams that have gone this route (drafting Russian players) and to do that you have to really do you're homework," Fenton says. "You have to know about a prospect's contract (with his KHL team) and you have to have a good read on his character. Is he really willing to play in the NHL and make a big change in cultures?"
Fenton knows of what he speaks. A few years back, Nashville spent a first-rounder on Alexander Radulov, a spectacularly talented Russian forward. It looked like a great pick when Radulov led Quebec to a Memorial Cup in juniors and made the direct jump to the NHL. And yet it's turned out to be a heart-breaker. Radulov walked away from the Preds (and a contract) to go back to the KHL for a big number and the comforts of home. It was an object lesson for NHL teams. In the era of a well-financed Kontinental Hockey League and in the absence of any useful agreement between the KHL and the NHL, Russian players are simply different prospects. You don't own a player's rights, but rather you own them for now.
The Russian win in Buffalo at the World Junior Championships was dramatic -- but it probably doesn't dramatically alter the realities of the draft. Teams have always done their homework on these 1991 birthday Russians. They know about Nikita Filatov, Columbus' first-rounder who folks mentioned in the same breath as Steven Stamkos. Filatov said all the right things about wanting to play in North America, but he thought the KHL looked better than ever when he was assigned to the AHL. If you can't keep a player who makes the direct jump to the NHL like Radulov, what chance do you have when you dispatch them to the bus leagues?
One caveat: Those who come to North America before their draft years are a bit of a different category -- they've displayed a willingness to come over and might have even left money on the table. It's easier to get a read on Alexander Burmistrov coming from the OHL rather than jumping from the KHL to the NHL. Still, when Burmistrov's first contract winds down the KHL will be in direct competition with Atlanta. And yet another category for a kid like Sarnia's Nail Yakupov, an amazing talent who'll play two full years in the OHL before the 2012 draft.)
One idea floating out there: The 1991 birthday Russians might be more attractive now than they were in their first two draft years. In the old days, NHL teams could draft Euros and retain their rights in perpetuity but the current CBA puts teams on the clock. They have just two seasons to sign any drafted player or lose his rights. KHL clubs might have wanted to withhold judgment on the 1991 birthdays two years ago but, now knowing the players better and having others in the pipeline, they might be more willing to work with NHL teams. And maybe the players also will want to make the jump at 19 and 20 more than they did at 17 and 18.
Denis Golubev, then, has a soaring stock -- if the parts fit right.