It's very early in the game for the 2011 NHL draft -- it's 240 days from today, after all -- and one scouting director noted last week, "At this point we're struggling to put together a list down to No. 30."
I guess that makes us a step ahead of the curve. We've already worked up a list of the top 50 prospects for the 2011 entry draft in Minnesota on June 24-25. With any early list, however, it's going to be fluid. For example, the players ranked from No. 30 to No. 50 aren't necessarily second-rounders. They could even fall into the fourth and fifth rounds depending on a number of future factors.
Where there is some consensus, however, is at the top. Most scouts will tell you that Sean Couturier and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are likely to be the top two picks, even though some of those same scouts will say Adam Larsson might be the best player in this draft. But right now he's not going No. 1 overall. The biggest reason? He's a defenseman.
Look at the trend from last year: eight of the top nine picks were forwards. The only D-man selected in that run, Erik Gudbranson, is headed back to junior for more development.
Some people think Larsson is a second coming of Drew Doughty. That could be ambitious, but he is definitely light years ahead of where Gudbranson was last season. Even so, it's still doubtful he's going to go much higher than Gudbranson did (No. 3 overall), largely because of the game's perceived future in the eyes of general managers. D-men just take longer to develop and not every GM has three, four or five years for a top pick to round into form.
That thinking informed our first round of rankings. We'll revisit this list each week in the draft blog and go deeper on some of the top prospects. In fact, if you want more than this early teaser, the blog has already kick-started coverage of the '11 draft class with in-depth profiles on some of the top prospects over the past few months. You can find a collection of all those profiles below, including most of the top names.
For now, however, strap in and take a look at our list of the top 50 draft prospects for 2011.
1. Sean Couturier, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
Leading scorer in the Q last year, towering over the league this season.
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Red Deer (WHL)
Super-skilled with a stick like Patrick Kane -- and the same hockey sense and nerve.
3. Adam Larsson, D, Skelleftea (Sweden)
The most pro-ready defenseman in a few years, Larsson is ahead of Victor Hedman at the same point. He looked a bit listless at Lake Placid, though, and hasn't been scoring in Sweden's elite league like he did last season.
4. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Kitchener (OHL)
The powerhouse power forward has shown it wasn't just Jeff Skinner carrying the Rangers last season. The Swede will get a chance to bump up his value at the World Junior Championships.
5. Brandon Saad, C, Saginaw (OHL)
Pennsylvania native stood out with the U.S. National Team Development Program last season and made the first cut at Lake Placid for the U.S. World Junior team, and he is playing better and more confidently now than in August.
6. Vladislav Namestnikov, C, London (OHL)
This ranking is a projection on his history. He had head injury early with the Knights, and is not excelling early in North America. Very strong ratings carry over from showing with Russia at last year's under-18s.
7. Victor Rask, C, Leksand Jr. (Sweden)
He played on the top line at the Ivan Hlinka tournament, but didn't impress. He might be trending down of late.
8. Nicklas Jensen, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
A revelation in September, but has come down to earth lately. Still, scouts figure that the big Dane is one of three first-rounders from the Generals and has great upside on the wing.
9. Matt Puempel, LW, Peterborough (OHL)
Consistent effort and production, but some scouts want to see breakout skill to project as a top-six forward at the next level. Others say they've seen it.
10. Lucas Lessio, LW, Oshawa (OHL)
Better in the summer and as an under-ager than he has been over the first two months in the OHL. Had a strong showing at Hlinka, though.
11. Seth Ambroz, RW, Omaha (USHL)
Big forward (6-foot-2, 211 pounds) has sneaky skills, but scouts wish those skills were a little more obvious and shown more often. Had a good NHL Research and Development camp in Toronto against other top prospects.
12. John Gibson, G, USNTDP (USHL)
Good early season for pro-sized (almost 6-foot-3) netminder. He'll get more showcase time in Ann Arbor.
13. David Musil, D, Vancouver (WHL)
Solid but only occasional flashes of offensive upside. Size separates him from the next group of defensemen. Some scouts wonder about his mobility, but he just might be growing into a big (almost 6-4) body.
14. Adam Clendening, D, Boston University (NCAA)
"His own worst enemy sometimes," one Western Conference scout said. "Confident is fine, but he gets too comfortable and too confident and takes too many chances when things are going his way. Still, one of the three best offensively skilled D in the draft."
15. Ryan Murphy, D, Kitchener (OHL)
He and Clendening are effectively the same entry. Some struggles early this year. Potential upside: Ryan Ellis with better feet.
16. Connor Murphy, D, USNTDP (USHL)
This is a provisional rating. He's out until January with an injury.
17. Jonas Brodin, D, Farjestad (Sweden)
He has all the tools but hasn't put everything together on a consistent basis.
18. Boone Jenner, C, Oshawa (OHL)
No single skill bowls you over -- you wish his head was on the shoulders of a more physically gifted kid. Still, very competitive and reliable. Not much of a chance to jump into the top 10, not much chance he'll fall out of first round.
19. Matt Nieto, LW, Boston University (NCAA)
Skills: speed and a shot. If he were 6-2, he'd be higher on this list, but he's 5-10.
20. Brett Ritchie, LW, Sarnia (OHL)
Big body (6-3, 210), has a lot going for him. Does not put it together every night. With that size, though, one organization will be willing to overlook his weaker nights and project based on his best.
21. Jonathan Huberdeau, C, St John (QMJHL)
Might have finished last season as a projected second-rounder, but he's skating better than he did as an under-ager.
22. Daniel Catenacci, C, Sault Ste Marie (OHL)
Some wrote off the OHL's first overall entry pick from 2009 when he scored only 10 goals as an under-ager. But he looked great at the Ivan Hlinka camp, at the research and development camp and through the first quarter of the Ontario season. An A-plus skater makes up for sub-5-10 size.
23. Rocco Grimaldi, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
Just call him Brian Gionta Jr. Standing 5-6 but with lightning speed, he's hard to find, never mind hit. Can dominate play at this level. Still, a lot of organizations could be spooked by the question of size. Could go much higher than this, though -- it only takes one team to believe. A draft wild card.
24. Oscar Klefbom, D, Farjestad Jr (Sweden)
More of a project; he might not be ready for the NHL for three or four years. Probably would be a Detroit-style prospect. Good size at 6-3, strength and skating are the base.
25. Dougie Hamilton, D, Niagara (OHL)
Might end up playing at over 6-5 and has good mobility for a D that size as a draft-eligible. Scouts love him in pockets, but oftentimes he's not physical enough.
26. Nathan Beaulieu, D, Saint John (QMJHL)
"Whatever needs to get done, he gets done," said one scout who works the Q and saw him in October. Might be slotted a little high here, but hard to see him falling.
27. Ty Rattie, RW, Portland (WHL)
Scouts who saw him in the past few weeks say his play has jumped up. Would have been outside a first-round projection at the end of last season, but a good summer and a better start of the Dub season gives him a bump. Not 6 feet but not shy.
28. Tobias Rieder, C/RW, Kitchener (OHL)
German kid is a little bit bigger than Shane McColgan and skates better. Has made a decent transition from Euro play.
29. Ryan Strome, C, Niagara (OHL)
Has good shifts, and takes shifts off. All that separates him from those Nos. 10 to 20 spots is consistency in the game. Doesn't have bad nights overall, but shows his stuff on just a few shifts each game.
30. Shane McColgan, RW, Kelowna (WHL)
Effective junior player with hockey sense and hands, but scouts wonder if, at 5-8, he skates well enough to be more than that.
31. Phillip Danault, LW, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
Hands and passing are a strength. Gets very high marks for play without the puck -- stuff that rides on hockey sense and effort.
32. Alexander Khokhlachev, F, Windsor (OHL)
Has shown a lot of game in first trip around the O. Not super-sized at 5-10 and 188 but might project to Andrei Loktionov with better wheels.
33. Dmitri Jaskin, LW/RW, Slavia Jr (Czech Republic)
It has been a down cycle for prospects coming out of the Czech league (as opposed to Czechs playing in North America). Still, scouts loved his Ivan Hlinka tournament. Pro-sized and creative, would rank higher here but skating is average at best at this stage.
34. Michael St. Croix, C, Edmonton (WHL)
Not great size at under 5-11 but skating gets A grade. Gets high marks for hockey sense.
35. Tyler Biggs, RW, USNTDP (USHL)
Question: Does he have size, hockey sense and work effort to project as a third- or fourth-liner in the NHL? Yes. Does he have skill set to be a top-six forward? Sometimes it looks that way.
36. David Broll, LW, Erie (OHL)
Banger, energy player. The profile of your basic high second-round pick.
37. Mika Partanen, LW, Mississauga (OHL)
Steady and smart player who was better in his first few weeks than he has shown lately (or had a chance to show in limited ice time). Still, he'll get a chance to showcase himself more than most with Mississauga hosting the Memorial Cup.
38. Tomas Jurco, RW, Saint John (QMJHL)
Slovak learning the North American game. Skilled, must be tougher, compete harder.
39. Austen Brassard, RW, Belleville (OHL)
Pro-sized winger, projection would max out as a second-liner at the next level. More likely something just below that.
40. Destry Straight, C, Coquitlam (BCHL)
This kid is a projection for somebody. He's the only player worth seeing at the Jr. A showcase events.
41. Philippe Hudon, C, Choate (U.S. high school)
Quebec kid at a U.S. prep. Decent size, but will be tough to project against prep opponents.
42. Joachim Nermark, C, Linkoping (Sweden)
Center with skills but came back from the Ivan Hlinka with scouts wondering why he didn't get more done; he picked up goals but let too many good chances get away.
43. Petr Placek, C, Hotchkiss (U.S. high school)
Headed to Harvard; almost 6-4 and skills are plain to see after a couple of viewings. Has a chance to take a significant jump based on his best showings.
44. Duncan Siemens, D, Saskatoon (WHL)
Scouts waiting to see something that would indicate he might be something more than a big-bodied fifth or sixth defenseman at the next level.
45. Myles Bell, D, Regina (WHL)
Ditto, with one qualifier -- showed more at the research and development camp than he has in the Dub.
46. Xavier Ouellet, D, Montreal (QMJHL)
Does all things fairly well, but the question is whether he'll show one skill to separate himself from those sub-6-foot D who max out in junior.
47. Maxim Shalunov, RW, Chelyabinsk 2 (Russia)
Rangy winger hinted at top-six skills at the Ivan Hlinka but received limited ice time. Scouts will follow up at Euro tournaments.
48. Zack Phillips, C, Saint John (QMJHL)
Could be anywhere from second to fourth round. One plus: The coattails effect. Scouts will see a lot of Saint John this year because of prospects higher on this list. And sometimes the one riding the coattails ends up wearing the coat. (See last year's draft with Ottawa juniors Tyler Toffoli and Ryan Martindale being the more heralded kids but Dalton Smith jumping ahead of them to Columbus.)
49. Markus Granlund, C, HIFK (Finland)
Brother Mikael was Minnesota's first-rounder last June. The knock against the elder was a question about skating and explosiveness. Scouts are even more skeptical about the younger, not-quite-as-skilled brother.
50. Tyson Teichmann, G, Belleville (OHL)
Has struggled -- mightily -- in OHL play. Gets points for Ivan Hlinka play: shutout in gold-medal game for Canada. Lots of time left to boost stock.
Gare Joyce is a contributing writer for ESPN The Magazine; he contributes frequently to the NHL draft blog and has been covering NHL drafts for over two decades.