The 2026 NFL season is nearing the midway mark, and we're tracking the playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LXI. Which teams have the best chances to make the 14-team postseason field? Which have a lot of work to do to ultimately get in?
We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl in February. Plus, we also have the FPI's projections for every game on the upcoming slate and how a win -- or a loss -- might impact each team's playoff chances, independent of other results.
Here's everything you need to know about the playoff picture right now, including which teams are trending up and down in each conference.
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AFC picture | NFC picture
Game stakes
Trending up in the AFC after Week 7: Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals took advantage of the absence of Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson this weekend (high ankle sprain) to earn their first AFC North win of the season. Cincinnati's chances of making the playoffs are now over 90% after sitting at 74.4% last week. It's still stuck at third in the divisional standings after the Steelers and Browns won in Week 7, but it has one of the easiest Week 8 matchups (at home against the Titans).
Trending down in the AFC after Week 7: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders are the third team in past decade to start 3-0 or better then lose four straight, per ESPN Research. And it's not going to get easier for them in the next few weeks, with two of their next three games against the 49ers and Seahawks. Las Vegas' playoff odds were as high as 38.4% this season, but that's down to 5% after its Week 7 loss to the Rams.
Trending up in the NFC after Week 7: New York Giants
In their five games without starting quarterback Jaxson Dart this season (left knee injury), the Giants have lost only one game. They are still behind the Cowboys in our FPI projections for the NFC East title, but New York is the new favorite for the division on DraftKings after its overtime win over the Texans. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been particularly impressive with 200-plus passing yards in each of the past two weeks.
Trending down in the NFC after Week 7: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers had a chance to separate themselves in the NFC South race with a matchup against the Bucs, who were bringing back quarterback Baker Mayfield from a three-game absence (dislocated thumb). Instead, Carolina had the largest loss of any team this week (30 points), while the Falcons handed the 49ers their first loss of the season. Both results caused the Panthers to fall roughly 40% in our playoff projections.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 16-18, 2027: Wild-card round
Jan. 23-24: Divisional round
Jan. 31: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 14: Super Bowl LXI (in Los Angeles)