There is a certain value we expect from each draft slot. For example the No. 1 pick is expected to produce about 11 to 12 GVT per season, if he is a skater. That tells us the kind of player we can expect at that slot. And if a player significantly exceeds that value, we say he's a "steal."
But with goalies, it's not so clear. It's tough to say what kind of production we should expect from goalies.
First off, a goalie can only provide strong NHL value if he is a starter -- and there are only 30 of those jobs. So the 31th-best goalie in the world is probably a backup; the 31th-best skater in the world is an All-Star. Secondly, goalies are notoriously hard to project. They usually take several years to develop and, even then, they go through a lot of growing pains.
Combining those two factors means today's top goalies often come from the late rounds, in which more goalies are selected. At some point, it becomes a game of collecting several goalies and seeing which ones develop.
But even though it's tough to project them, there is still a certain value we should expect from each draft slot. So if we compare their expected value to their actual production, we can tease out a top-10 list of the biggest goalie steals from the last 20 years:
10. Marty Turco
Selected No. 124 in 1994 by the Dallas Stars
Expected GVT/season: 0.47
Actual GVT/season: 12.28
Overachieve: 11.81
Turco was undrafted in the OHL draft and ended up signing with a junior-B team, the Cambridge Winter Hawks. His coach at the time, Ken Mann, told the Kitchener-Waterloo Record, "He is the best goaltender I've seen at this level in all the time I've been associated with this level. ... I'm sure he will play pro one day." After two years at the University of Michigan and two years in the minors, he got his break as Ed Belfour's backup.
9.Miikka Kiprusoff
Selected No. 116 in 1995 by the San Jose Sharks
Expected GVT/season: 0.64
Actual GVT/season: 12.74
Overachieve: 12.10
Several months before the draft, Kiprusoff helped his stock with a strong showing at the World Junior Championships in Canada. The Sharks drafted six Finnish players that years, including goalie Vesa Toskala one round prior to Kiprusoff's selection.
8. Martin Brodeur
Selected No. 20 in 1990 by the New Jersey Devils
Expected GVT/season: 5.21
Actual GVT/season: 18.08
Overachieve: 12.87
The Devils could have chosen Trevor Kidd, who was rated as the top goalie in the class, at No. 11. But they traded down with the Flames and selected Brodeur. USA Today's Kevin Allen said Brodeur was "not yet very polished, but scouts love aggressiveness."
7. Ryan Miller
Selected No. 138 in 1999 by the Buffalo Sabres
Expected GVT/season: 0.19
Actual GVT/season: 13.13
Overachieve: 12.94
After Miller was drafted in 1999, the Sabres drafted eight goalies in the next eight years. They were clearly playing a numbers game, which may be the right way to find a future goalie in the draft. Miller was the one in the bunch who developed into Buffalo's starter. The other seven goalies have played a combined 15 NHL games.
6. Evgeni Nabokov
Selected No. 219 in 1994 by San Jose
Expected GVT/season: minus-1.01
Actual GVT/season: 12.44
Overachieve: 13.45
Sharks scout Tim Burke went to Russia to scout another player but ended up discovering Nabokov. Going into Day 2 of the 1994 draft, the Sharks targeted two players. One was Russian Alexei Yegorov, who they promptly drafted in Round 3. The other was Nabokov, who they waited until the ninth round to draft.
5. Roberto Luongo
Selected No. 4 in 1997 by the New York Islanders
Expected GVT/season: 9.40
Actual GVT/season: 23.91
Overachieve: 14.51
Until Rick DiPietro was selected No. 1 in 2000, Luongo had been the highest-drafted goalie ever. So his expectations were quite high coming in. I might argue that it was too risky to pick a goalie at No. 4, but Luongo has provided incredible value for his draft slot. Despite his struggles in this year's Stanley Cup finals, Luongo has been one of the best goalies in the NHL since 2000.
4. Tomas Vokoun
Selected No. 226 in 1994 by the Montreal Canadiens
Expected GVT/season: minus-1.09
Actual GVT/season: 14.36
Overachieve: 15.45
Vokoun was entirely off the radar when he was drafted at No. 226 in 1994. The Habs had already selected Jose Theodore in Round 2 and took a flyer on the stand-up style Czech goalie.
3. Tim Thomas
Selected No. 217 in 1994 by the Quebec Nordiques
Expected GVT/season: minus-0.99
Actual GVT/season: 16.67
Overachieve: 17.65
After the Nordiques drafted this University of Vermont sophomore, they didn't pay much attention to him for the next four years. Thomas signed as a free agent with the Oilers and Lightning then finally with the Bruins. It took him a while to get his break, but he's done pretty well for himself.
2. Roman Cechmanek
Selected No. 171 in 2000 by the Philadelphia Flyers
Expected GVT/season: minus-0.37
Actual GVT/season: 18.50
Overachieve: 18.87
The Flyers drafted him to play in the NHL immediately. He was 29 and was already a well-established player in the Czech league. While drafting a player 10 years older than everyone else at the draft wasn't sexy, it was smart. Like we mentioned above, NHL goalies are extremely tough to come by in the draft, and this transaction was more like signing a European free agent than drafting a player.
1. Henrik Lundqvist
Selected No. 205 in 2000 by the New York Rangers
Expected GVT/season: minus-0.84
Actual GVT/season: 26.32
Overachieve: 27.16
He was the fifth-ranked European goalie that year, according to Central Scouting. (Ilya Bryzgalov was No. 1.) But the Swedish stopper didn't get selected until the seventh round. At the time of the draft, Hockey's Future wrote, "[Lundqvist] may yet just prove to be the best pick of the entire Ranger draft. Another prospect find of scout Christer Rockstrom. Watch out for him ..."
For five years Lundqvist stayed overseas, where developed into the best goalie in the Swedish Elite League. After winning the best keeper award for three consecutive years, he came to the NHL.
Rockstrom is also the guy who deserves partial credit for finding Nicklas Lidstrom for the Red Wings. When Rockstrom left for the Rangers, he recommended Hakan Andersson as his replacement, and Andersson subsequently found the biggest forward steal ever, Pavel Datsyuk.