Fantasy football matchup rankings: Upgrade Brown, fade Jacobs, Moore

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Tristan H. Cockcroft: Don't sleep on Malik Washington in Week 9 (0:49)

Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.

Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?

The matchup rankings provide a schedule independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions. Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced over the past five weeks.

"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.

Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want the most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.

Quarterbacks

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Clay: Malik Willis is the best streaming QB in Week 9

Matchups highlight: Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins (versus Detroit Lions). Strange as it sounds, Willis actually aligns as a viable fantasy play this week. He has averaged 19.8 fantasy points over his past three games, contributing rushing touchdowns in two and multiple passing touchdowns in two. Now he faces the Lions, this year's No. 1 defense for an opposing quarterback (6.5 Adjusted FPA for the season). The Lions have surrendered at least 21 fantasy points to six of the seven quarterbacks they have faced to date, including 21.90 last week to similarly mobile Kyler Murray.

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Matchup to avoid: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night). Heap as much credit as you wish upon Williams for leading his Bears to a commanding 34-17 "Monday Night Football" victory over the Seahawks in Week 8. In fantasy terms, his stat sheet was hardly all that: 13.98 fantasy points. This week's matchup offers no softer a landing spot, as the Buccaneers have been one of the toughest defenses against the position all season, affording quarterbacks the fewest fantasy points per rushing play and the third-fewest points per passing play. Joe Burrow (14.16 FPTS, Week 1) and Dak Prescott (12.64, Week 5), most notably, had so-so scores facing this matchup.

Running backs

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Is Chase Brown a buy-low candidate in fantasy?

Matchups highlight: Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Atlanta Falcons, 9:30 a.m. ET on Sunday in Madrid). The Bengals' running game has stalled in a major way, averaging the fourth-fewest yards per carry (3.6) and fifth-fewest explosive plays (6.8%) while totaling the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns (three). But if there's a matchup in which Brown will finally break through with a big game, it's one overseas against the Falcons. The Falcons' run defense has been bruised and battered over the past four weeks, affording the position the league's most carries (129), rushing yards (688) and rushing touchdowns (six). Every one of their opponents' starters during that time has scored in excess of 21 fantasy points.

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Matchup to avoid: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers (at New England Patriots). He's off to a productive start to 2026, scoring in excess of 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games, but Jacobs' 2.3 yards per carry and 3.1% explosive play rates leave plenty to be desired. His receiving contributions have made his days in those weeks, and that's not a great match against a Patriots defense that has afforded the position the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game on receiving plays. Overall, the Patriots haven't allowed a 20-point fantasy game to any running back, and their minus-3.6 Adjusted FPA to the position for the season is third fewest.

Wide receivers

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Is DJ Moore still a top-tier fantasy WR?

Matchups highlight: Keenan Allen, Indianapolis Colts (versus Dallas Cowboys). If you're digging deep this week, Allen stands out as a streaming option. He has been running more routes on the outside this season than he did during his prime years -- 77% of his total routes run, to be exact -- and that matches up with the soft spots in the Cowboys' secondary. Over the past five weeks alone, Nico Collins, Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden and Michael Wilson averaged 24.3 fantasy points in matchups against the Cowboys, during which they ran a collective 80% of their routes on the outside. Cowboys CB Joey Porter Jr. (ankle) also seems likely to be questionable for the game, further leaving the defense in a tough spot.

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Matchup to avoid: DJ Moore, Buffalo Bills (at Minnesota Vikings on Monday night). Josh Allen missed "avoid" status at quarterback despite this toughest-in-the-league matchup, but his No. 1 receiver is someone to avoid in fantasy leagues. Moore has had extreme difficulty staying healthy this season, exiting two games and missing two others because of shoulder injuries, then hyperextending his knee near the conclusion of Week 8. He'll tangle with the league's No. 1 defense against wide receivers, both for the season and over the past five weeks -- one that has seen only two individuals reach the 16 fantasy point threshold all year: Christian Watson, who caught two touchdowns in Week 1, and Jameson Williams, the only player to catch a pass thrown 20-plus yards downfield against the Vikings all season.

Tight ends

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Matchups highlight: Greg Dulcich, Dolphins (versus Lions). Both of the tight ends in this game stand out for their advantageous matchups, but Dulcich is the one much more widely available. The Lions' defense has been something else -- and not in a good way -- against the position this season, adding a whopping, league-leading 11.3 fantasy points to the opponent's total on average, while surrendering a touchdown to a tight end in six of seven games. Is this the week that Dulcich snaps his seasonlong touchdown drought? Yes, I think it is.

Matchup to avoid: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (versus New York Giants). He's still providing decent fantasy production despite Jalen Hurts' season-ending injury, averaging 6.3 targets and 9.7 points in Tanner McKee's three starts, but that still places Goedert firmly in matchups territory. The Giants, however, have been one of the better defenses against tight ends, limiting the position to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per target (1.43) for the season. The two hefty-volume tight ends they've faced, Trey McBride and Dalton Schultz, totaled 19.6 fantasy points despite seeing 18 targets against them, and only one of their catches went for 10-plus yards.