No. 2 Ohio State visits a USC team that fell out of the rankings after losing to Wisconsin, but I wouldn't dismiss this matchup. The Trojans are 6-2, with another loss coming from Oregon. Ohio State already lost at Texas back in Week 2 and now turns to freshman QB Luke Fahey with Julian Sayin out.

The Buckeyes have spent all season among the national title favorites. Another loss would complicate that conversation. Every week brings an upset ... could this one be next?

Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

No. 2 Ohio State -7 at USC
Saturday, 7:30 p.m., NBC

Records: Ohio State 6-1, 2-1 vs. AP Top 25; USC 6-2, 0-1 vs. AP Top 25
Money line: Ohio State (-265); USC (+215)
Over/Under: 51.5 (O -105, U -115)

What does Ohio State's offense look like now?

I'm throwing out the assumption that Ohio State can keep playing offense the same way without Sayin simply because they have a potential Heisman winner in WR Jeremiah Smith. Someone still has to get him the ball.

Sayin helped create those passing numbers while Fahey has 13 attempts and now has to make his first start on the road at USC. We have almost nothing to tell us how he is going to handle that assignment.

The obvious move is to lean on RB Bo Jackson, but that comes with questions, too. Jackson averages 5.9 yards per carry at home and 3.8 away this season. The road competition has been tougher so I'm not blaming the stadium, but Ohio State hasn't established that it can walk into a difficult matchup and run whenever it wants. Those games also came with Sayin giving defenses something else to worry about. I expect a simplified offense, and I'm less convinced that it means an efficient one.

USC has the better setting

Trojans QB Jayden Maiava gives me a reason to believe USC can do more than hang around. At home, he's completing almost 70% of his passes, averaging 9.2 yards per attempt and has 13 touchdowns against three interceptions. His numbers fall to 62.6% and 7.3 yards per attempt when he's on the road. Getting this game in Los Angeles is key.

I also like how he can attack. Maiava's best passing comes on intermediate throws, with seven touchdowns and one interception on passes traveling 10-19 yards. USC doesn't need to spend the night hoping somebody catches a bomb.

Prediction: USC +7 vs. Ohio State

The Trojans can win this outright. Ohio State's defense is the biggest obstacle, but it also gives me a reason to like under 51.5 points. The Buckeyes are allowing successful plays on just 32% of opponent passes, and USC's running game doesn't look strong enough to take that responsibility off Maiava. I expect USC to work for its points.

That makes getting a full touchdown appealing. USC can stay within this number without turning the game into a shootout, especially if Ohio State plays a more conservative game and possessions take longer for the Buckeyes.

The concern is USC's defense giving up easy scores, and Ohio State's 58-1 record against unranked opponents under Ryan Day shows how rarely these opportunities turn into upsets (the lone loss was Michigan in 2024). Still, I see a competitive fourth quarter. Ohio State has averaged just 6.3 and 4.3 fourth-quarter points on the road over the last two seasons. If this stays close, Maiava gives USC a legitimate chance to finish the upset, even in a lower-scoring game.