Call it the year of the hangover in college football.
We're seeing it every week: A team coming off a big, emotional win follows it up with a disappointing, sometimes inexplicable loss. There were more high-profile flops this week, headlined by BYU.
After beating No. 2 Notre Dame last week to replace the Irish as the No. 2 team in the AP poll -- the program's highest ranking since winning the national title in 1984 -- the Cougars appeared well on their way to a special season. UCF, meanwhile, came into the weekend having dropped back-to-back games to Houston and Oklahoma State, setting up the expectation that BYU would pick up another win with the possibility of a matchup of unbeatens in the Holy War against Utah looming Nov. 7.
The 10th-ranked Utes took care of their end of the bargain, coming back to beat No. 14 Houston 21-13. BYU did not.
Instead, the Cougars lost 39-31 in double overtime, with a series of bizarre twists over the final minutes of regulation and into overtime.
Elsewhere, No. 11 Tennessee, which beat then-No. 6 Alabama last week, lost 27-24 to unranked South Carolina on a last-second field goal.
No. 7 Ole Miss dominated then-No. 13 Missouri last week but fell to No. 19 Texas 34-27 despite an inspired second-half rally.
The week started with six undefeated teams at the FBS level, and when the Cougars went down, that number had been cut in half, following losses by Texas Tech to Cincinnati and James Madison to App State that, again, significantly reshaped the playoff picture.
BYU should have been aware of the pattern of letdown losses.
It started when Ole Miss -- coming off a win against its old coach, Lane Kiffin -- no-showed the following week against unranked Florida on Sept. 26. After that 52-28 win, the Gators rode that momentum into a 45-17 loss the next week to Missouri.
Texas responded relatively well after beating No. 1 Ohio State early in the year, but after it beat No. 14 Tennessee on Sept. 26, a loss to rival Oklahoma followed. The Sooners quickly parlayed that win into a defeat at home to Kentucky.
We can't forget Mississippi State. It beat No. 19 Missouri, only to lose to Alabama by 33 the next week. Riding high off that win, Alabama then lost to Georgia. So, naturally, the Dawgs responded by immediately losing to Auburn.
The epidemic is not reserved only for the SEC.
Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck called the Gophers' win against Michigan on Oct. 3 "the best day of his life" other than his wedding day and birth of his kids. The next week, they fell to Purdue.
On the same day Minnesota beat Michigan, Oregon beat USC in what was a testy battle of ranked teams. The Ducks responded by losing to UCLA. The list goes on.
BYU had plenty of chances to avoid joining the others.
UCF passed on a chance to kick a go-ahead field goal with 1:42 left only to get stuffed on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line. The Knights quickly forced a three-and-out, then benefited from a BYU personal foul that turned what would have been a 61-yard field goal attempt into a 46-yarder.
This time, BYU blocked the field goal attempt, but UCF recovered behind the line of scrimmage on third down, so it briefly appeared to have another chance. But kicker Will Stone's helmet had come off, triggering a 10-second runoff that sent the game into overtime.
After BYU scored first, UCF answered. The Knights scored another touchdown -- aided by a questionable roughing the kicker penalty after the first settled for a field goal -- then stopped the Cougars on fourth-and-goal from the 4 to complete the upset.
It's tempting to try to find some kind of root cause to explain all these hangover losses because statistical variances isn't a particularly satisfying answer. Maybe it's increased parity. Maybe it's the weight that comes with more teams being involved in a playoff chase. Regardless of why it's happening, it has made this as unpredictable a season as there has been in recent memory.
Jump to:
Texas bounces back
Down goes Texas Tech
Group of 6 CFP spot up for grabs
Closing bell
Texas stays alive
After back-to-back losses that saw Texas fall from its No. 1 perch, Saturday's game against No. 7 Ole Miss was a must-win on a few fronts: to keep its dimming playoff hopes alive, to quiet questions about Arch Manning's status as QB1 and, perhaps, to avoid a full-on meltdown in Austin.
In the end, all those boxes were checked, even if the second half was mostly an anxiety-inducing ride for the Longhorns.
The first half put on display a version of this team it aspires to be: Manning was great, the running game was effective and the defensive dominant as Texas built a 24-3 lead.
But Ole Miss quickly made all of that obsolete, starting with a strip sack of Manning for a touchdown to begin the third quarter. The Rebels tied it early in the third quarter before Texas reclaimed a 10-point lead. Again, Ole Miss made things dicey, kicking a field goal and getting the ball back on an onside kick late, only for a last-ditch heave to the end zone to be intercepted.
This was a quality win for Texas. Ole Miss was a dangerous, top-10 team. But it also likely won't have a significant impact on national perception because this is a talented, but flawed team. It can hang with anyone in the country -- evident by this result and the win against Ohio State -- but with five games left in the season, it seems likely at least another loss is coming.
For many teams, they're in an enviable position. But at Texas, this is still underwhelming.
Down goes Texas Tech
Over the first half of the season, Texas Tech had fallen well short of the bar it set last year, when it finished the regular season ranked No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings, earning a berth in the quarterfinals. But even though the Red Raiders hadn't looked the part, they still started 6-0, and last week's 53-25 win against Arizona State was as comprehensive a performance as they had played all season. It felt like a turning point. A sign they had turned the corner and would be formidable the rest of the way.
But as has been the case in college football a lot this season, those good vibes were short-lived.
Texas Tech was out of sorts from the game's opening moments and never offered much resistance in a 37-24 loss to Cincinnati that leaves the team with little margin for error if it wishes to return to the playoff.
Fortunately for Texas Tech, neither BYU nor Utah is on the schedule, so the path to the Big 12 championship game is more manageable than it would have been otherwise. The conference title is the most obvious path to the playoff, but let's lay out a hypothetical. Let's say Tech wins out but loses in the title game. Then what?
After BYU was left out of the playoff last season with an 11-2 record, it's hard to be confident the Big 12 runner-up will get in, but the conference is better this year and, despite BYU's loss, is better positioned to get two teams in.
Group of 6 playoff spot up for grabs
After running off seven straight wins to start the season, James Madison's attempt to the College Football Playoff in the wake of coach Bob Chesney's departure was going about as well as it could have hoped. That all came crashing down Thursday night when App State took down the Dukes 34-31 in overtime.
Had James Madison run the table, it would have been difficult to keep it out in favor of another Group of 6 team, even if its schedule doesn't feature a Power 4 opponent such as Boise State (Oregon), Oregon State (Houston, Texas Tech) or New Mexico (Oklahoma). Now, everything is on the table.
The odds-on favorite at this point is probably whoever comes out of the Pac-12: Boise State or Oregon State. Both teams dropped games against their Power 4 opposition to start the season, but they have been rolling since.
Boise State found itself tied with Washington State going into the fourth quarter on Saturday but pulled away late to win 31-10.
For Boise State to be in the mix is no surprise, but the Beavers are one of the most under-the-radar teams in college football. Coming off a 2-10 season, they're 5-2 under new coach JaMarcus Shepard featuring one of the most exciting offenses in the country. Freshman receiver Jesse Legree and quarterback Braden Atkinson, who moved to Corvallis after winning the Jerry Rice Award last year at Mercer -- given to the best FCS freshman -- have injected fresh enthusiasm in a program that had been trending in the wrong direction over the past few years.
Oregon State travels to Boise State on Nov. 14, in what is shaping up to be the most consequential Group of 6 conference game this season.
The other major player in the race is New Mexico, which won an impressive game Saturday night against North Dakota State, 21-16. In his second season in Albuquerque, coach Jason Eck has engineered an impressive turnaround. It would have been absurd to have allowed for the possibility that the Lobos -- a team that has not won a bowl game outside its own state since 1961 -- could be a playoff contender, yet here they are.
The closing bell
Buy: LaNorris Sellers
South Carolina picked up a massive win against Tennessee, and Sellers delivered this incredible touchdown.
MAXIMUM EFFORT‼️ LaNorris Sellers ties the game late in the fourth 😮 https://t.co/mb5kle2hkS
— ESPN (@espn) October 24, 2026
Sell: This roughing the passer call
This might be the most undeserved roughing the passer penalty in the history of football.
Michigan was called for a roughing the passer penalty here. Was it deserved? https://t.co/Pk2dBbcRwo
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) October 24, 2026
Hold: Indiana
A week after dropping their first game of the season, the Hoosiers needed overtime to get by Michigan, which has mostly underwhelmed this season. QB Josh Hoover completed just 8-of-18 passes for 81 yards and Indiana ran for just 131 yards. It was unrealistic for Indiana to maintain at its level from a year ago, but it has been a few plays away from losing in three of its past four Big Ten victories.
Buy: Will Stein
With a 34-17 victory against Vanderbilt, the first-year Kentucky coach has the Wildcats off to a 7-1 start. Stein had been Oregon's offensive coordinator for the past three years, and without him, things have gone downhill fast.
Sell: Oregon
With two losses Oregon could have hung on to the possibility for a turnaround despite how much it had underperformed. That's off the table now. The unranked Ducks lost 21-10 to Illinois, which gives them three losses before November for the first time since 2018.
Buy: Wisconsin
The Badgers have quietly built a 5-2 record following their 24-7 triumph against No. 16 USC, with their only two losses coming to a pair of top-10 teams: Notre Dame and UCLA. It could be time to start looking at Wisconsin as a possible playoff team, as the remaining schedule gives a chance to play for the Big Ten title: at Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, at Purdue, Minnesota. Odds are the Badgers will drop at least one, but those are all winnable games.
Sell: Northern Illinois' move to the MW
The Huskies dropped to 0-7 with a 56-21 loss to Hawai'i and are inching dangerously close to a winless season. The MAC was a perfect suitable home for Northern Illinois, and the move to the Mountain West this season hasn't made life better.
Buy: Stanford
Coming into the season, Stanford was clearly in rebuilding mode. There was no reason to expect this team to be relevant in the ACC, but after beating NC State on Friday night, the Cardinal have quietly built a 4-4 record. All four losses were blowouts, and the Cardinal are still nowhere near being a true contender, but progress is progress.
Sell: NC State
Conversely, the loss to Stanford was such a bad look for NC State that head coach Dave Doeren was fired less than 24 hours later, sitting at 3-4 and 1-3 in the ACC. Maybe they would have played better down the stretch, but this is a white flag decision from the administration admitting it's a lost season for the Wolfpack.