Monday night's game pits one of the game's best offensive coaches (Ben Johnson) against one of its best defensive coaches (Mike Macdonald) in a heavyweight battle. The Bears have recorded 0.14 EPA per play with Caleb Williams on the field this season, ranking among the five most efficient offenses in the league entering Sunday's play. The Seahawks rank third in EPA per play on defense and are top three against both the run and the pass.
Drill down deeper and we see more specific strength-on-strength matchups: the Seahawks, for example, rank second in pass rush win rate; the Bears are fourth in run block win rate.
And there will be some added intrigue when the Seahawks offense and Bears defense are on the field, after each team just made major acquisitions. The Seahawks acquired Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts and the Bears dished out two first-round picks to add Jeffery Simmons from the Tennessee Titans. These two former AFC South foes will draw the spotlight when these units square off, and whoever has the better debut could help decide who wins this game.
Betting outlook
ESPN's Football Power Index favors the Seahawks by just 1.8 points in this game, a decent bit short of the full three points by which Seattle is favored. I tend to agree, for what I am guessing is the same reason that FPI likes Chicago relative to the spread: offense is more stable than defense. A good offense is simply more likely to have a strong next game than an equivalently good defense is. And if we isolate the Bears offense to just when Williams is on the field, the Bears offense and Seahawks defense do appear roughly equivalent.
Plus, Sam Darnold has struggled this season and entered Sunday ranked 23rd in QBR. Give me the Bears +3.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Caleb Williams 1+ INT (+100)
Liz Loza: Williams doesn't have a reputation for throwing a high number of interceptions. If anything, his proclivity to hold onto the ball too long (and take sacks) keeps his INT numbers low. That has borne out this season, as he has tossed just one pick over four contests. That one pick came against the Minnesota Vikings in a monsoon. The Seahawks don't need inclement weather or heavy blitz packages to tally takeaways, though. Instead, Mike Macdonald generates pressure via stunts and disguises. His methods have clearly worked, as Seattle ranks second in the NFL in takeaways with eight. Williams is still learning, and given his desire to push -- particularly on primetime -- increases the odds of at least one ill-timed toss downfield.
Kalif Raymond receptions OVER 2.5 (+136)
Walder: Raymond's production has really fallen off, and he failed to make a catch last week. But I can't get this number out of my head: 71. That's Raymond's open score entering Week 8, which is tied for fifth-best among wide receivers and tight ends this season. Open score measures a receiver's ability to get open on all routes, regardless of whether they were targeted, and that's a skill I want to bet on.
Byron Murphy II sacks UNDER 0.25 (-242)
Walder: I'll be honest, this isn't my