According to ESPN Research, there are 28 teams with at least a 10% chance to reach the College Football Playoff this season. One notable difference in the 12-team format this fall is that each Power 4 conference champion is guaranteed a spot in the field -- which means that any team with a shot at winning the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC is a legitimate CFP contender. Notre Dame is also guaranteed an automatic bid if it finishes in the top 12 on Selection Day.
Beyond the wealthy blue bloods, though, how deep does the pool of playoff candidates really run? As leaders of the CFP continue to discuss how large the field should be in future iterations of the playoff, how many teams can legitimately compete for the national title?
"I think there's at least 10," Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said. "But the trick is, can you get those 10 teams into the 12-team field? That's the trick because there are some automatic qualifiers."
"Probably year in and year out, I guess 15, somewhere around there," Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. "I think when you look at last year, some of the guys who were right on the fence of getting in probably could have made a deep run. So my guess would be right around there, but it probably depends on the year."
"Is it 14 or so, give or take?" Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said.
"You may think I'm crazy, but I think 15 to 20," South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said.
"Maybe 10, 15," Oregon coach Dan Lanning said. "But are they healthy? There were some teams last year you might argue didn't have great seasons, but maybe they could have if other things would have happened."
Here are 31 teams -- that's right, 31 -- that the CFP selection committee might consider at some point this fall. From favorites to long shots, the following list considers information from ESPN Analytics along with historical knowledge of what the committee likes (and doesn't) about the schedules each team will present as its résumé. DraftKings odds to win the national title were recorded July 31 and are subject to change.
1. Texas Longhorns
Last year's record: 10-3
Overall CFP record: 2-2
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 69.9% | Win national title: 13.2%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +750
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Texas has everything in place to live up to the hype this year, and it has all the ingredients to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee. Because Texas will have home-field advantage over Ohio State in Week 2, it has a slight edge here in these rankings. The analytics favor Ohio State, though, as the team with the best chance to reach the CFP.
Toughest test: Sept. 12 vs. Ohio State. This should be the Longhorns' highest-ranked opponent, and they'll have home-field advantage against the Buckeyes.
What the committee will like: A win against the eventual Big Ten champions. That's the kind of résumé boost that could earn Texas the No. 1 seed, especially if it's a close call between the two teams.
What the committee won't like: A repeat of last year. If Texas loses a close game at home to Ohio State, it's not going to knock the Longhorns out of the CFP field. If Texas goes on to struggle against weaker teams like it did last year, though, the Horns could again find themselves on the bubble. Last year, the committee discussed how Texas needed overtime to beat both Kentucky and Mississippi State, two teams that combined for a 10-15 record. That was in addition to the loss to Florida, which fired its coach.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Last year's record: 12-2
Overall CFP record: 7-5
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 75.7% | Win national title: 17.1%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +600
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Buckeyes are loaded again, have a returning starting quarterback in Julian Sayin and ample talent around him. There's no reason Ohio State shouldn't contend for the national title. If the Buckeyes can beat Texas on the road, they could have a win against the eventual SEC champs.
Toughest test: Oct. 31 at USC. Yes, the Week 2 game at Texas will garner more national attention, but the trip to L.A. on Halloween -- after facing defending national champ Indiana on the road -- will probably be the most difficult task of the season. The Buckeyes will have a bye week to prepare for it, while USC will be coming home from a trip to Wisconsin.
What the committee will like: A midseason statement. Regardless of what happens in Week 2 at Texas, the Buckeyes have a key stretch during the heart of the season that could make or break their playoff hopes. It starts Oct. 17 at Indiana, followed by another road trip to USC on Halloween before hosting Oregon on Nov. 7. That should be three straight top-25 opponents. If Ohio State can go 2-1 during that stretch, it should be a CFP team regardless of what happens at Texas.
What the committee won't like: Three strikes on the road. Ohio State has four major opportunities -- Sept. 12 at Texas, Oct. 3 at Iowa, Oct. 17 at Indiana and Oct. 31 at USC -- to earn true road wins against what are likely to be CFP top-25 teams. Two losses can be overcome, but a third dips into dangerous territory. The Buckeyes need to find ways to win on the road, because that's where their best chances are to impress the committee.
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Last year's record: 10-2
Overall CFP record: 3-3
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 74.4% | Win national title: 10.5%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +650
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. This is the same rank Notre Dame would have if the teams were listed by their chances of winning the national title. Notre Dame has the second-best chance of any team in the country to reach the CFP, trailing only Ohio State. As long as the Irish finish in the top 12, they are guaranteed a spot in the field.
Toughest test: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. This is one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season after last year's game helped push the Canes into the field on Selection Day.
What the committee will like: Convincing wins. Notre Dame's highest-ranked opponents will likely be Miami and BYU, with SMU also a likely CFP top-25 team. There might not be another ranked opponent on the schedule. If the Irish can assert themselves against weaker, unranked opponents on a consistent basis, and not leave any doubt in the eyes of the committee that they were the better team, Notre Dame can overcome what is at least now perceived to be a weaker schedule and have a chance at a higher seed. Dominant performances could mean the difference between earning a first-round bye, hosting a playoff game or having to hit the road.
What the committee won't like: Three losses. Remember, under the new CFP contract, Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the playoff if it finishes in the top 12. So the Irish would really have to screw up to be excluded -- or play so poorly all season that the committee calls into question their playoff worth. If Notre Dame finishes with two losses, and those losses are to Miami and BYU, the committee will have a hard time justifying Notre Dame's remaining strength of schedule.
4. Oregon Ducks
Last year's record: 13-2
Overall CFP record: 3-3
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 64.7% | Win national title: 9.2%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +800
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Quarterback Dante Moore's return cemented the Ducks' role as a contender. They replaced both coordinators, but the defense is loaded and Oregon's overall personnel is capable of leading the Ducks to the Big Ten championship.
Toughest test: Nov. 7 at Ohio State. This could be a preview of the Big Ten championship, and it will at least help determine who's in it. The Buckeyes should be the highest-ranked opponent the Ducks face all season.
What the committee will like: A win against the new Pac-12 champs. Oregon hosts Boise State in the season opener, and the Broncos will be looking to make a statement in their new conference. This year, the committee's highest-ranked team from a Group of 6 conference is guaranteed a spot in the playoff -- and it doesn't have to be a conference champion this year. Boise State should have a chance at that bid, and a head-to-head win against the Broncos could wind up being a sneaky good nonconference win.
What the committee won't like: No statement road wins. Oregon avoids Indiana and Penn State this year, but it has two really tricky trips to Ohio State and USC, which should be the highest-ranked opponents the Ducks face on the road. If they stumble in both those games, they would also lose the head-to-head debate in the ranking, along with their chances at a first-round bye. It could potentially drop them out of range to host a first-round home game, but it depends on how those games and the rest of the season play out.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
Last year's record: 12-2
Overall CFP record: 5-3
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 63.9% | Win national title: 9.6%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +850
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Georgia has an elite, national-championship-caliber defense and an underrated quarterback in Gunner Stockton. The Bulldogs should again be playing for the SEC title, attempting to win the program's third straight SEC championship since accomplishing the feat from 1980 to 1982.
Toughest test: Nov. 7 at Ole Miss. These teams played twice last year, and the first game decided who would play in the SEC championship. The second decided a spot in the CFP semifinals. The Oct. 10 trip to Alabama is a close second, but there's admitted recency bias in this pick. It's hard to forget what Georgia did to Bama in the SEC championship game last year, while Ole Miss knocked Georgia out of the playoff. And expectations are higher for the Rebels right now than they are for the Tide.
What the committee will like: A dominant defense. It's not all about schedule strength in that room. The committee zeroes in on statistics and film, and Georgia's defense should get their attention. Thirteen of the 18 most experienced defenders return (at least 200 snaps) and this will be an older group capable of a top-five defense. Historically, that has been a common trait among the committee's top-four teams.
What the committee won't like: Late-season road woes. If Georgia is going to finish strong, it's going to have to do it mostly away from Athens. Three of the last five games are elsewhere, including the rivalry game against Florida, which will be held in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta this year. Georgia avoids playing Texas, LSU and Texas A&M -- three of the SEC's better teams. If Georgia can't escape Tuscaloosa with a win, it will be under even more pressure to go at least 2-1 on the road in the final stretch.
6. Indiana Hoosiers
Last year's record: 16-0
Overall CFP record: 3-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 57% | Win national title: 6.6%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +800
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The defending national champs absolutely have more than a 50% chance to return to the CFP, but without Fernando Mendoza, it's only natural to question if the Hoosiers can win it all again. The teams listed above them here have fewer questions.
Toughest test: Oct. 17 vs. Ohio State. The Hoosiers avoid Oregon and get the Buckeyes at home, but Ohio State will be their first real test of the season.
What the committee will like: Another dominant team. Last year, Indiana won repeatedly in such resounding fashion it was impossible for the committee to hold the Hoosiers back. It didn't matter if the opponent was Indiana State or Oregon -- the Hoosiers won by double digits. The selection committee doesn't incentivize margin of victory -- the group isn't rewarding teams that run up the score -- but it does have an unwritten "cap" of 24 points as a benchmark to help distinguish teams that have clearly asserted themselves against another team. If IU can continue to control games in a similar way this year, it will help overcome a loss or two to one of the few ranked opponents in the back half of the schedule.
What the committee won't like: The first half of the schedule. Woof. Indiana doesn't play a Power 4 nonconference opponent, faces the FCS Howard Bison and is unlikely to face a ranked opponent until Oct. 17, when it hosts Ohio State. The Buckeyes, Michigan, USC and Washington are all potential CFP top-25 opponents in the second half of the season, comprising four of the final six games. There are enough opportunities for IU to overcome the slow start, but it will be an issue if the Hoosiers don't take advantage of them.
7. Miami Hurricanes
Last year's record: 13-3
Overall CFP record: 3-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 61.4% | Win national title: 5.4%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +1100
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. With WR Malachi Toney, running back Mark Fletcher and several key players returning on defense, the Canes should be a contender again. Duke transfer quarterback Darian Mensah led the ACC in passing yards last year and is one of only two current Hurricanes to have won an ACC title -- along with Duke's leading receiver last year, Cooper Barkate. The question in 2026 is where Miami finishes with regard to Notre Dame ...
Toughest test: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. The Canes are 1-9 all time on the road against Notre Dame, but they haven't played in South Bend since 2016, when they lost a 30-27 thriller. Miami's win against the Irish in the 2025 season opener was ultimately the game that catapulted the team into the playoff field. It could be equally impactful again.
What the committee will like: Another complete team. Miami was the total package last year, ranking in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That's something the committee has typically rewarded, and a big reason the group kept the Canes out of the playoff in 2024, when the defense faltered down the stretch. If Mensah can maintain the offensive explosiveness (which he should considering the returning talent around him at the skill positions) and the defense continues to dominate, the committee will again hold the Canes in high regard.
What the committee won't like: A weak ACC schedule. The committee members repeatedly insist they judge teams, not conferences, but how many teams they rank from one league is an indication of conference depth and strength. Will defending ACC champion Duke be ranked? Will a road win against Clemson be a top-25 victory this year? Can James Franklin get the Hokies into the top 25 in his first season? If not, Miami will be under tremendous pressure to beat the Irish on the road to earn a statement win.
8. Ole Miss Rebels
Last year's record: 13-2
Overall CFP record: 2-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 22.8% | Win national title: 1.3%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +3000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The computers give Ole Miss the 16th-best chance to reach the playoff, and this spot gives the Rebels a first-round home game. With quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, running back Kewan Lacy, defensive tackle Will Echoles and linebacker Suntarine Perkins returning, there's enough talent on both sides of the ball to return to the CFP.
Toughest test: Sept. 19 vs. LSU. No other game on the schedule will match the emotions of this one as former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford. Kiffin's unceremonious exit during the 2025 season makes this reunion must-see TV, but will the Rebels be able to focus on executing the game plan against a former coach who knows them all too well?
What the committee will like: A nonconference win against Louisville in the season opener at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. Louisville should be a contender in the ACC this year and a CFP top-25 team. With a nine-game SEC schedule, and a respectable Power 4 nonconference opponent, Ole Miss won't have to worry about the committee questioning its games against Charlotte and Wofford. The game against Louisville can help separate Ole Miss from other playoff contenders that didn't have as challenging of a nonconference schedule.
What the committee won't like: A bad loss. Ole Miss has enough opportunities to impress the selection committee that it can afford a loss or two, but Texas learned last year that even great wins aren't always enough to compensate for a bad one. It's one thing to lose on the road to Texas or Oklahoma, or at home to Georgia or LSU, but the Rebels need to avoid an unexpected stumble to an unranked team they should beat.
9. Texas A&M Aggies
Last year's record: 11-2
Overall CFP record: 0-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 39.1% | Win national title: 3.4%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +2000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat agree. The computers might slightly undervalue the Aggies, who return multiple stars from last year's 11-win season, including quarterback Marcel Reed. With two new coordinators and questions on both lines, though, Texas A&M enters the season with something to prove.
Toughest test: Nov. 27 vs. Texas. This was the one regular-season opponent the Aggies couldn't beat last year -- and it cost them on Selection Day. After losing to the Longhorns, Texas A&M dropped four sports and out of first-round bye contention.
What the committee will like: A strong finish. The Aggies play three of their final five games on the road and host Tennessee and rival Texas in November. If South Carolina and Tennessee can play their way into the committee's top 25, it's possible the Aggies face five straight ranked opponents when it matters the most. At the very least, punctuating their résumé with wins against OU and Texas would make a lasting impression on the committee heading into conference championship weekend -- regardless of whether the Aggies qualify for the SEC title game.
What the committee won't like: A nonconference loss to Arizona State. If the Aggies are a CFP team, they shouldn't lose this Week 2 game at home. Especially considering the rest of the nonconference schedule includes Missouri State, which has only been at the FBS level for one season, and The Citadel, an FCS team. It's unlikely that Texas A&M will go undefeated in SEC play, so it needs to avoid an early setback to what should be an average Big 12 team. ASU pulled off the biggest upset in the Big 12 last year, knocking off Texas Tech 26-22 on Oct. 18.
10. LSU Tigers
Last year's record: 7-6
Overall CFP record: 2-0
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 39.7% | Win national title: 3.5%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +1800
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The computers also have LSU at No. 10 when it comes to the Tigers' chance to reach the playoff. Expectations are soaring for coach Lane Kiffin's first season. Kiffin will have veteran quarterback Sam Leavitt and defensive coordinator Blake Baker, who led two top-15 defenses in the past three years, to help him. The question is how quickly they can put it all together because the schedule doesn't allow time to work out the kinks.
Toughest test: Sept. 19 at Ole Miss. Former Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin will return to Oxford to coach against his old team and several former assistants, including Rebels coach Pete Golding. This game will impact the SEC race, the CFP ranking and, of course, the simmering storyline of Kiffin himself.
What the committee will like: A season-opening win against Clemson. No, the hype isn't as high as it was a year ago when these teams met, but Clemson should be one of the most improved teams in the country. Clemson's 7-6 finish last year was confounding, but coach Dabo Swinny made some significant personnel changes -- roster and staff -- that should boost the Tigers back to respectability. That would mean a measurable boost to LSU's résumé, especially if Clemson finishes in the CFP top 25.
What the committee won't like: An 0-2 start to November. If LSU loses back-to-back home games against Alabama and Texas in its first two games of the month, will there be enough time to move up before Selection Day? It's not that a two-loss LSU team can't qualify for the CFP, but it's also not a guarantee (see: two-loss Notre Dame, BYU, Vandy and Utah last year). That's also assuming LSU doesn't stumble early against Clemson and/or Ole Miss. Historically, it has been better to lose early than late, and if LSU starts November 0-2, it will be under tremendous pressure to finish the season with back-to-back road wins against Tennessee and Arkansas, and it will need to hope both of those opponents fare better than last year's combined 10-15 finish.
11. USC Trojans
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 27.7% | Win national title: 1.7%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +3500
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. USC is starting the preseason as a bubble team but loaded with potential. USC's fate might depend on how many Big Ten teams can get into the committee's top 12. If Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana return, can the Big Ten get a fourth team in? It might if USC beats those teams.
Toughest test: Nov. 14 at Indiana. USC gets Oregon and Ohio State at home this year, and both of those games are before the Trojans have to travel to Bloomington to face the defending national champs. USC will have a bye week after hosting the Buckeyes to prepare for IU.
What the committee will like: The grueling conference schedule. Overall, USC has the No. 19-ranked schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. USC faces the Big Three -- Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. The Oct. 3 home game against Washington should be another CFP top-25 opponent. The Trojans also have to fly to Rutgers, Penn State, Wisconsin and Indiana -- and face rival UCLA on the road. It's not unreasonable to think USC will line up against at least five ranked opponents, which could give them an edge in the committee meeting room.
What the committee won't like: Double-digit losses. The committee pays attention to how games are won and lost, and last year, USC lost to Notre Dame and Oregon by at least 10 points each. With a schedule as tough as USC has this year, the Trojans can probably afford two losses and still be in playoff contention, but the committee will think twice if those two L's are by a significant margin to another playoff team. It illustrates the gap between the loser and the playoff team, and that discrepancy can be reflected in the ranking.
12. Oklahoma Sooners
Last year's record: 10-3
Overall CFP record: 0-5
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 28.2% | Win national title: 2%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +3500
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Sooners are ranked in the same No. 12 slot, but this is a dangerous place to be on Selection Day. If the committee's highest-ranked Group of 6 team is outside of the top 12, it would bump OU out of this spot for a guaranteed bid. OU's defense was the difference last year, but the offense will have to show measurable improvement in order to earn a more comfortable spot in the committee's ranking.
Toughest test: Sept. 26 at Georgia. The true road trip to Athens comes just two weeks after traveling to Michigan and a week before their bye week followed by rival Texas.
What the committee will like: A win against the eventual SEC champs. If OU can beat Georgia on the road in September, the impact could last through Selection Day. The head-to-head result isn't the only tiebreaker the committee uses, and it tends to lose power in the room if the two teams spiral in different directions. If the Sooners remain a contender, though, and have the same record as Georgia, you could see a similar scenario play out like it did with Alabama last year. The Tide beat Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the SEC title game and still got in because of that regular-season win.
What the committee won't like: An 0-2 road record in September. The Sooners need to avoid losing to Michigan and Georgia before entering the heart of SEC play. Not only will it be extremely difficult to avoid a third loss with Texas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M still on the schedule, but the Sooners will be under pressure to beat those teams and earn ranked wins. ESPN's FPI currently gives Michigan and Georgia more than 50% chance to win those games.
13. BYU Cougars
Last year's record: 12-2
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 25.7% | Win national title: .7%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +9000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. With a Texas Tech-BYU rematch a strong possibility for this year's Big 12 title game, the Cougars' chances of making the playoff field should be higher. The Big 12 champion is guaranteed a spot in the playoff, and while the computers still like Texas Tech to win the league (45.9%), no other team besides BYU has more than a 16% chance.
Toughest test: Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. The Cougars will have home field advantage, but this will likely be BYU's highest-ranked regular-season opponent.
What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. If BYU can't beat the Irish at home, it can guarantee itself a spot in the CFP with a conference title. BYU was excluded last year because it lost twice to Texas Tech in convincing fashion. This year, the Cougars don't face the Red Raiders during the regular season. One redemption shot could be all they need to earn their first CFP bid.
What the committee won't like: More lopsided losses to CFP contenders. Texas Tech outscored BYU 63-14 in two games last year. That's why the Cougars didn't earn a spot with the Red Raiders, even though they finished as the league runner-up. BYU will have tough games against Arizona, at TCU, against Notre Dame and at Utah. The committee isn't going to keep BYU out because of a close road loss to Utah, and it could still survive if it loses close to Notre Dame and finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. If BYU is going to stumble, though, it can't be by a large margin multiple times.
14. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Last year's record: 12-2
Overall CFP record: 0-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 57.9% | Win national title: 3.7%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +2200
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Mostly agree. Like BYU, Texas Tech is a front-runner to play in the Big 12 title game, which gives it at least a 50% chance to reach the CFP. The roster is still loaded even without quarterback Brendan Sorsby, but the Red Raiders need to keep their new starter, Will Hammond, healthy to make a playoff run.
Toughest test: Oct. 24 at Cincinnati. ESPN's FPI gives Texas Tech at least an 80% chance to win each of its games, but this one is on the road against Sorsby's former team. Even though Sorsby has moved on, this one could still be a trap game.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the state of Arizona. Last year, ASU pulled off one of the season's biggest upsets with its 26-22 win against Texas Tech, the Red Raiders' lone loss of the season. This year, Texas Tech hosts ASU on Oct. 17 and Arizona on Halloween. Expectations are higher for the Wildcats, who could be a surprise contender for the Big 12, but they could both be tricky opponents with a trip to Cincy sandwiched in between.
What the committee won't like: No BYU, Utah or K-State on the schedule. Texas Tech will miss what should be the league's highest-ranked opponents. Its schedule is ranked No. 71 in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics. The nonconference lineup includes Abilene Christian, Oregon State and Sam Houston. If Texas Tech doesn't win the Big 12, its weaker schedule could be an issue for some committee members unless the Red Raiders are otherwise so dominant they look the part of a playoff team regardless.
15. Michigan Wolverines
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: 2-2
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 23.2% | Win national title: 1.2%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +4000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It's not impossible for the Wolverines to make a run in the first season under coach Kyle Whittingham, but with Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State all on the schedule, it would be a surprise.
Toughest test: Nov. 28 at Ohio State. No comment necessary.
What the committee will like: The No. 16 schedule in the country. It starts Week 2 with the home game against Oklahoma, and two weeks later Michigan hosts what could eventually be a CFP top 25 Iowa team. ESPN's FPI gives Michigan more than a 50% chance to win every game -- except for the Big Three (Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana). If Michigan can beat Oklahoma and Iowa -- and they're both top-25 teams -- and the Wolverines pull off at least one upset against the Big Three, a two-loss Michigan would be a good bet for the CFP.
What the committee won't like: An 0-3 record against the Big Three. It's not that a three-loss team can't get into the CFP, but at some point, a team has to show the committee it can beat another playoff contender. The committee would consider how close the losses were -- what if they were in overtime, by a field goal, and by a touchdown? -- but Michigan would still be compared with other teams that have fewer losses and more wins against ranked opponents.
16. Penn State Nittany Lions
Last year's record: 7-6
Overall CFP record: 2-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 22% | Win national title: 0.8%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +6000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. It's premature to claim Penn State is ready to play for the national title in the first season under coach Matt Campbell, but it's conceivable the Nittany Lions win enough games to earn a spot in the field.
Toughest test: Nov. 7 at Washington. The Nittany Lions get USC at home on Oct. 10, a daunting cross-country trip for the Trojans, but Penn State has to travel through a similar ordeal with its trip to Washington.
What the committee will like: A home win against USC. The Trojans will probably be the highest-ranked opponent Penn State faces all season, and a head-to-head win could be an important tiebreaker for the committee members if the two teams finish with the same record.
What the committee won't like: The weakest schedule in the Big Ten. According to ESPN Analytics, Penn State's schedule ranks No. 18 in the conference in difficulty, and No. 62 overall. That's because the Nittany Lions avoid Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana in league play, and have a nonconference lineup of Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. Yikes. It's unlikely Penn State will face a ranked opponent until Oct. 10 against USC, and Michigan and Washington are the other opponents with a strong chance of finishing in the CFP top 25. The weaker schedule means less margin for error in the committee meeting room.
17. Alabama Crimson Tide
Last year's record: 11-4
Overall CFP record: 10-6
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 41.3% | Win national title: 3.7%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +2500
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The computers give the Tide the ninth-best chance in the FBS to reach the CFP, which seems generous for a team that doesn't know its starting quarterback yet and averaged 3.3 yards per carry last year.
Toughest test: Oct. 10 vs. Georgia. The regular-season game between these teams was one of the best of the 2025 season, but the lasting impression was the 28-7 thumping the Tide took in the SEC title game loss to the Bulldogs. Alabama was held to minus-3 rushing yards.
What the committee will like: Another regular-season win against the eventual SEC champ. If Alabama doesn't win the conference again, the next-best thing is the scenario that unfolded last year. The committee forgave a bad loss to Florida State and one of the worst championship game performances by a team in the history of the CFP and awarded a three-loss team a spot in the field mostly because of the Tide's regular-season road win against Georgia.
What the committee won't like: A lack of statement wins. Alabama overcame three losses last year. It overcame a bad loss to a 5-7 Florida State team. But it also had four straight wins against ranked opponents at the time (Georgia, Vandy, Mizzou and Tennessee). Bama might not face a ranked opponent until Oct. 10 against Georgia, and there's no guarantee that the majority of teams in the back half of the schedule will finish in the CFP top 25. Texas A&M and LSU should, but Tennessee, Vandy and Auburn are more uncertain. If Alabama has a similar season to last year -- without as many statement wins -- the committee probably won't be as forgiving.
18. SMU Mustangs
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: 0-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 18.5% | Win national title: 0.4%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +10000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Mostly agree. SMU should be the ACC's second-best CFP contender behind Miami, but the gap between them might not be as significant as the computers indicate. Miami has a 48.4% chance to win the ACC, followed by SMU at 11.1%. The two don't play each other during the regular season and they've both been to the ACC title game once since joining the league.
Toughest test: Nov. 21 at Notre Dame. The Irish should be the highest-ranked CFP team on the regular-season schedule, and SMU will play them on the road -- right before traveling to Stanford for the regular-season finale.
What the committee will like: A road win against Notre Dame. There's nothing on the schedule that would impress the room more, and the head-to-head win could be critical for both selection and seeding.
What the committee won't like: A sluggish September. The season opener at Florida State is when anything can happen and usually does. It's not an easy trip or place to play, regardless of the Noles' recent struggles. Two weeks later, SMU is at Louisville for its second road game in three weeks -- this time against what should be one of the ACC's ranked teams. If by some chance SMU starts the season 2-2, with its lone wins at home against UC Davis and Missouri State, it might not have enough on the rest of the schedule to compensate for it. The committee also won't like it if SMU starts September with a 2-2 record and then runs the table, handing the Irish their lone loss of the season. That's a head-to-head headache on Selection Day.
19. Washington Huskies
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: 1-2
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 9.4% | Win national title: 0.2%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +12000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The Huskies still have something to prove and are looking up at the top half of the Big Ten, but they're also not too far away from making a major push forward. Washington ranks No. 16 in returning production, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly. If the Huskies are going to reach the CFP, it's most likely as an at-large bid, which isn't unrealistic.
Toughest test: Nov. 28 at Oregon. The regular-season finale against the old Pac-12 foe will reveal how close Washington is to returning to the national stage. It will be the second road game in three weeks and come right after the Huskies host defending national champ Indiana.
What the committee will like: A sneaky-good October. Within six days, Washington has to travel to USC and then come home and host Iowa on a Friday, Oct. 9. If the Huskies can find a way to go 2-0 against what could be two CFP top 25 teams, the committee would point back to that stretch if they stumbled against better November competition. ESPN's FPI gives Washington more than a 50% chance to win six of its first seven games, the lone exception being at USC. The Huskies will have home field advantage on Nov. 7 against Penn State, a tough cross-country trip for the Nittany Lions. If they were undefeated heading into those final two games against IU and Oregon -- and lost both -- the committee would absolutely consider a two-loss Washington team that had defeated USC, Iowa and Penn State. But that October stretch is the critical part of that equation.
What the committee won't like: A November to forget. Everything above goes out the window if Washington doesn't beat at least one of the Big Three in November -- Penn State, IU or Oregon. If the Huskies finish as a three-loss team without a Big Ten title, the committee would likely choose another team with fewer losses.
20. Arizona Wildcats
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: 0-0
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 7.8% | Win national title: 0.1%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +25000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is a super low percentage considering Arizona has a real chance to contend for the Big 12 title. It could also sneak in with an at-large bid as the league's runner-up. Texas Tech and BYU are the front-runners to play for the title, but Arizona will face them both during the regular season.
Toughest test: Oct. 31 at Texas Tech. Halloween in Lubbock? ESPN's FPI gives Texas Tech an 86.8% chance to win. If Arizona doesn't beat BYU on the road in Week 2, a second league loss would be devastating for hopes of playing in the Big 12 championship game.
What the committee will like: A winning record on the road. Arizona's playoff chances will most likely be decided on the road, where the Wildcats will face BYU, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Kansas State. They have to at least go 2-2, but wins at WVU and K-State aren't gimmes. Morgantown is a notoriously tough place to play, and K-State could be a CFP top-25 team. If Arizona can beat both of those opponents and at least split with BYU and Texas Tech, the selection committee would consider Arizona for a spot. The chances would increase significantly if one of those road wins came against the eventual Big 12 champ, or if Arizona was able to avenge a regular-season road loss against the same team in the Big 12 title game.
What the committee won't like: Three losses before November. That's what happened to Arizona last year (at Iowa State, vs. BYU, at Houston). With trips to both BYU and Texas Tech in the first half the season before the rankings come out, Arizona's best chances to impress the committee will happen before they even start to meet. And if they can't capitalize on them, Arizona will be an afterthought in the playoff race and the Big 12 race. If Arizona has two losses before November, it's not impossible for the Wildcats to earn a CFP bid, but they'd likely do it as the Big 12 champion or hope the committee ranks multiple teams in the back half of their schedule to help compensate for it.
21. Iowa Hawkeyes
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 11.8% | Win national title: 0.3%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +12000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. The odds are low because Iowa's chances of winning the Big Ten are also low (1.7%). Iowa returns the least production in the Big Ten at 44%, according to Bill Connelly, and that ranks No. 104 in the country. With so much turnover on defense, even the most reliable unit is a question.
Toughest test: Oct. 3 vs. Ohio State. No team on the schedule has a better chance (87.6%) to beat the Hawkeyes, according to ESPN's FPI. And it's sandwiched between road trips to Michigan and Washington.
What the committee will like: Early road wins. Iowa's best chance to start high in the committee's weekly rankings is with wins at Michigan (Sept. 26) and Washington (Oct. 9). That's a tall task, considering the Washington game is on a Friday night, just six days after Iowa hosts the Buckeyes. The committee would forgive that loss to Ohio State, though, if the Hawkeyes can beat Michigan and Washington, which both should be CFP top-25 teams. If Iowa has two losses before November, it will have a hard time finding a statement win powerful enough to boost its résumé and ranking when it matters the most.
What the committee won't like: An inability to finish big games. This is what happened to the Hawkeyes last year. Yes, the committee respects close losses to ranked opponents -- it's not as damaging in the room -- unless it happens repeatedly. Iowa lost to Indiana, Oregon and USC last year by a combined 12 points. Five measly points separated Iowa from national champion Indiana. The Hawkeyes lost by three on the road to in-state rival Iowa State. Those things individually didn't keep Iowa out of the CFP, but collectively, it was too much to overcome. This year, the committee needs to see Iowa on the other side of those close games on the biggest stages.
22. Houston Cougars
Last year's record: 10-3
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 7.9% | Win national title: 0.1%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +20000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The computers give Houston the 37th-best chance to reach the CFP, and that is too low, considering how wide open the Big 12 race could be. Houston also has a bulk of experience returning from last year's 10-win team.
Toughest test: Sept. 18 at Texas Tech. An early road loss to a CFP contender on a Friday night won't keep Houston out of the playoff, but it will be an indicator of how seriously to take the Cougars moving forward.
What the committee will like: At least a 2-1 record against Texas Tech, Kansas State and Utah. All three of those games are on the road, and ESPN's FPI gives Houston less than a 50% chance to win each game. If Houston can pull off at least two wins, though, it would give the Cougars the head-to-head advantage in the committee's rankings and increase Houston's chances of reaching the Big 12 title game. It would also give the Cougars a little margin for error on the backstretch. With a 2-1 record, it's possible Houston could earn a rematch against the team it lost to in the Big 12 title game. Houston would lock up a CFP bid as the Big 12 champ, but also earn a higher seed because of the eventual redemption win and head-to-head result.
What the committee won't like: A November upset. The weakest part of Houston's schedule is the final four weeks, when the committee is paying the closest attention and the rankings begin. With games against Cincinnati, Colorado, West Virginia and Baylor, it's possible Houston goes the entire month without a statement win. The only thing worse than that is a bad loss. There's no good time to lose, but CFP history says that it has been easier to overcome if it happens earlier in the season. With back-to-back road trips to Colorado and West Virginia, Houston needs to avoid a trap game -- especially if it can't survive earlier road trips to Texas Tech, K-State and Utah. ESPN's FPI gives Colorado a 50.7% chance to win.
23. Louisville Cardinals
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 13.8% | Win national title: 0.2%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +15000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. This is too low for a team that beat Miami last year and can win the ACC this season. Louisville has a favorable schedule to get to the ACC title game, missing Miami and Clemson during the regular season. ESPN's FPI gives Louisville more than a 50% chance to win every game except the season opener against Ole Miss.
Toughest test: Sept. 6 vs. Ole Miss. Opening the season against a program that went to the CFP last year is daunting, but a win would set the tone for the season and lend legitimacy to Louisville's playoff potential.
What the committee will like: No more than one loss in September. If Louisville can at least split with Ole Miss and SMU, its chances of reaching the playoff would look far more realistic. Those are the two best chances on the schedule to impress the selection committee, and beating either of those teams -- if not both -- would boost Louisville's stock in the committee meeting room in different ways. A nonconference win against a ranked SEC team would separate Louisville from other contenders that didn't play as challenging a nonconference schedule. The head-to-head win could also factor in on Selection Day. If the Cardinals lose to Ole Miss but beat SMU, Louisville will have defeated its toughest ACC opponent before the rankings begin. There are some decent ACC teams lurking on the schedule -- road trips to NC State, Syracuse and Georgia Tech aren't gimmes -- but if Louisville is really a playoff team, it shouldn't lose to any of them.
What the committee won't like: An 0-2 record against the SEC. Louisville opens against Ole Miss and closes at rival Kentucky. If Louisville loses both of those games, it will almost certainly either have to win the ACC or run the table and finish as a three-loss runner-up and hope for an at-large bid. The committee would likely reward a three-loss SEC team that played a tougher schedule. Louisville's schedule is ranked No. 58 in the country and No. 14 in the ACC. All 16 SEC teams are ranked in the top 20 of SOS, according to ESPN Analytics.
24. Utah Utes
Last year's record: 11-2
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 11.1% | Win national title: 0.2%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +10000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Somewhat disagree. The computers give Utah the 30th-best chance to reach the playoff, which feels low, considering they should be one of the top four teams in the Big 12. There's something to prove, though, in Year 1 under coach Morgan Scalley, especially with so many players gone from last year's 11-win team.
Toughest test: Nov. 7 vs. BYU. ESPN's FPI gives BYU a 58.7% chance to win. Unless Houston makes a move, this will likely be the highest-ranked opponent Utah faces during the regular season.
What the committee will like: A strong finish. There's no way around it. Utah needs a November to remember, and right now, ESPN's FPI gives the Utes less than a 50% chance to beat BYU, Arizona and TCU. Barring a strange season, that would likely eliminate Utah from the Big 12 title game and, in turn, knock the Utes out of the CFP race as a three-loss team without a statement win. Even if Utah loses at home to BYU, though, and can win three games on the road against Cincinnati, Arizona and TCU, the selection committee might still consider the Utes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up. It would depend on how those losses unfolded, how good Utah looked in those road wins and if those opponents were ranked by the committee.
What the committee won't like: A Week 2 loss to Arkansas. Utah's nonconference schedule also includes Idaho and Utah State. It's not like a win against Arkansas will move the needle much in the committee meeting room, but a loss to a lower-tier SEC team with a first-year head coach won't help. It's easier to overcome a bad loss if it happens early, but it also puts more pressure on Utah to finish strong, and the toughest part of the schedule is the second half of the season. Three of its last five games are on the road (Cincinnati, Arizona and TCU), with the Nov. 7 home game against BYU right after the first CFP ranking is revealed Nov. 3. If Utah doesn't win the Big 12, and loses to an Arkansas team that shows only moderate improvement from last year's 2-10 finish, the committee will be comparing the Utes with other contenders that have better nonconference wins.
25. UNLV Rebels
Last year's record: 10-4
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 8.6% | Win national title: 0.0%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +50000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Mostly agree. It's less about the numbers and more about predicting UNLV to finish higher in the committee's ranking than Boise State in the Pac-12. UNLV has the best chance to win the Mountain West Conference, and it doesn't have to worry about facing Boise State this season after the Broncos moved to the Pac-12. There are enough opportunities to impress the committee without aiming too high and getting knocked out.
Toughest test: Sept. 5 at Hawaii. Who's not distracted in Hawaii? Plus, ESPN's FPI gives the Rainbow Warriors a 52.1% chance to win. It's the only game ESPN's FPI doesn't favor UNLV.
What the committee will like: The nonconference schedule. No, Memphis, North Texas and Cal aren't juggernauts, but they are respectable opponents, and if UNLV can earn double-digit wins, the committee will factor that into its deliberations. UNLV's overall schedule strength is ranked No. 124 in the country (and ESPN's metrics are usually within range of the selection committee's), so the Rebels will need to make the most of those nonconference opportunities. They might be the best opponents they face all season.
What the committee won't like: No conference championship. The rule is different this year -- Group of 6 teams don't have to win their conference titles to be considered. The committee will instead choose the highest-ranked team from the Group of 6. But winning a conference title is still valued in the room and can be a separator, and UNLV will have some tough competition from the new-look Pac-12. Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State could all make a push to be the committee's top team, too.
26. Tennessee Volunteers
Last year's record: 8-5
Overall CFP record: 0-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 20.5% | Win national title: 1.0%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +7000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. The computers give the Vols the 19th-best chance to make the CFP, and that is extremely generous for a team that won four league games last year and seems positioned for a middle-of-the-pack finish at best.
Toughest test: Sept. 26 vs. Texas. Tennessee will be breaking in a new quarterback -- and both options, George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon, have combined for nine career passes. If the Vols are going to have a chance, their learning curve has to be accelerated. ESPN's FPI gives Texas a 75.5% chance to win.
What the committee will like: The schedule strength. Tennessee has the 14th-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics. With that comes a little more grace in the committee meeting room. The Vols won't necessarily be eliminated because of losses to Texas and Alabama because they can sway the committee members with wins against Texas A&M and LSU. At no point in the second half of the season -- when the committee is watching most closely -- does Tennessee have back-to-back home games. The Vols will have to win on the road, and that's a factor the committee also considers.
What the committee won't like: An early loss to Georgia Tech. If the Vols can't beat the Yellow Jackets, their nonconference wins will be against Furman and Kennesaw State. And if the Vols can't beat Georgia Tech, how will they beat Texas at home later that month? A 2-2 start to September would be devastating, putting Tennessee under tremendous pressure to run the table and beat Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU along the way.
27. TCU Horned Frogs
Last year's record: 9-4
Overall CFP record: 1-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 6.9% | Win national title: 0.1%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +25000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. These numbers give TCU the 39th-best chance to reach the CFP, and that is in the same ballpark because the Horned Frogs are not a front-runner to win the Big 12. That means TCU's best shot will likely be as an at-large bid, and with one of the toughest schedules in the league, it will be difficult.
Toughest test: Nov. 26 at Texas Tech. It's on Thanksgiving night, and ESPN's FPI gives the Red Raiders an 87.4% chance to win at home. It doesn't help TCU that this regular-season finale is the end of a gauntlet that also includes Arizona, K-State and Utah.
What the committee will like: Multiple wins against ranked Big 12 opponents. Every opponent TCU faces in November -- Arizona, K-State, Utah and Texas Tech -- has a chance to be a CFP top-25 team. They are all contenders for the Big 12 title game. Overall, the Horned Frogs have the No. 47 schedule in the country, and that won't weigh them down much in the eyes of the committee, especially if those November teams live up to the hype. And it won't sting as badly if a November loss is to the eventual Big 12 champs.
What the committee won't like: A season-opening loss to North Carolina. Anything can happen in the season-opener in Dublin, Ireland, especially between two teams breaking in a new starting quarterback. But if TCU loses to UNC, and the Tar Heels have another sub-.500 season, that will be a stain on the Horned Frogs' résumé through Selection Day. And it will only grow larger if TCU loses again -- regardless of the opponent.
28. Boise State Broncos
Last year's record: 9-5
Overall CFP record: 0-1
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 11% | Win national title: 0.0%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +50000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Mostly agree. The computers like Boise State more than UNLV out of the G6, and that is the main difference here, but there's not much separation between the Broncos, and that's reflected in the numbers. They are the overwhelming favorite (59.3%) to reach the Pac-12 title game and win it (36.4%).
Toughest test: Sept. 5 at Oregon. It's a daunting way to start the season, but in 2024, the Broncos went to Eugene and lost by a field goal in Week 2. ESPN's FPI gives Oregon a 94.8% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A convincing win against Memphis. With Boise State now in the Pac-12, the Broncos don't face UNLV in the regular season, but the committee uses common opponents to help decipher between two teams. On Sept. 12, Boise State plays Memphis, which opens the season against UNLV. It's only a piece of the puzzle, but how those games unfold are small clues that could persuade a committee member to lean a certain way. If both teams beat Memphis, the committee will consider how the game is won.
What the committee won't like: A lopsided loss to Oregon. It's one thing to lose to a playoff contender, but it's another to get completely outplayed. One of the reasons the selection committee rewarded Boise State with a playoff bid in 2024 was because of its 37-34 loss to Oregon. It was also the only game the Broncos lost that season, but it showed the committee that the Broncos could hang with a CFP team. And they did it on the road. On the flip side, that same season, Clemson lost 34-3 to Georgia in a game that troubled the committee all year when evaluating the Tigers. If three-loss Clemson hadn't won the ACC that year, that lopsided loss would have continued to haunt the Tigers. The committee won't keep Boise State out of the playoff because it lost on the road to Oregon, but if there's any debate, how the Broncos lost would be part of the conversation.
29. Clemson Tigers
Last year's record: 7-6
Overall CFP record: 6-5
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 21.1% | Win national title: 0.7%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +11000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Disagree. Clemson will be better, but how much depends in large part on its new quarterback -- and even coach Dabo Swinney isn't sure who that is right now. The computers also give Clemson the fourth-best chance to win the ACC, and that is why the Tigers are one of the lower teams on the list. The ACC can get two teams in the CFP, but Clemson would probably have to make it to the league title game to be one of them.
Toughest test: Sept. 5 at LSU. This is Lane Kiffin's opener as head coach at LSU, where the two teams will be playing a night game. Tigers vs. Tigers. As difficult as it will be to beat Miami on Oct. 3, Clemson will at least have home-field advantage. The unforgiving environment at LSU will be as challenging as the game.
What the committee will like: A 2-0 record against the SEC. Clemson could have a major advantage over other contenders if it can open the season with a win against LSU and close it with a win against rival South Carolina. If both teams have respectable seasons, it would help offset a loss to Miami during the regular season. The head-to-head result would also be difficult for committee members to ignore as long as the records were the same. Clemson's schedule is ranked No. 35 in the country, something the committee will appreciate.
What the committee won't like: Losses to average ACC teams. If Clemson is going to return to national relevance, it can't lose at Syracuse or at Duke, even though the Blue Devils are the reigning ACC champs. Clemson can't fly across the country to lose to an unranked Cal team, or stumble to a mediocre North Carolina team at home. The committee will want to see Clemson assert itself against unranked and average opponents.
30. South Carolina Gamecocks
Last year's record: 4-8
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 10.8% | Win national title: 0.4%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +12000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. Don't count out the Gamecocks, who return more production on offense (76%) than any other team in the SEC, and the second most in the FBS. Until the offensive line improves, though, and they find ways to finish close games in the fourth quarter, the Gamecocks will still be looking up at the bulk of the SEC.
Toughest test: Nov. 21 vs. Georgia. South Carolina will have home-field advantage, but ESPN's FPI gives Georgia an 80% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A Nov. 28 win at Clemson. The committee has always appreciated wins in rivalry games and understands the intangibles that accompany them, including the difficulty of winning on the road against an in-state rival. A win against the Tigers should also carry more value in the committee meeting room than it did last year, when Clemson had an unusually poor season. If South Carolina can win this one, it will help the committee forget that its other nonconference games are against Kent State and Towson.
What the committee won't like: No statement road wins. South Carolina has the 10th-most difficult schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so there's no shortage of opportunities to impress the committee. It's also not unreasonable to think that a three-loss South Carolina would be considered, but it can't afford to lose every big game on the road. The Gamecocks' best opportunities will be at Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma and Clemson, but ESPN's FPI gives South Carolina less than a 50% chance to win each of those. If the committee is going to reward South Carolina with a playoff bid, the Gamecocks will have to find a way to win some tough games on the road.
31. Virginia Tech Hokies
Last year's record: 3-9
Overall CFP record: N/A
ESPN Analytics: Make playoff: 7.3% | Win national title: 0.1%
DraftKings odds to win the national title: +18000
Agree or disagree with ESPN Analytics: Agree. With the hire of James Franklin and the influx of talent he brought with him from Penn State, the Hokies at least have a chance to make a surprise run in the CFP. The schedule is littered with as many traps, though, as there are opportunities to impress the committee.
Toughest test: Nov. 21 at Miami. Until proven otherwise, the Canes remain the team to beat in the ACC and the league's top playoff contender. It will likely be the second November road trip against a ranked ACC opponent, along with Nov. 6 at SMU.
What the committee will like: A winning record against Clemson, SMU and Miami. ESPN's FPI projects Virginia Tech to win every game -- except those three. If the Hokies can somehow win at least two of those, they would be in the discussion for an at-large bid if they're not in the ACC championship game. If they are in the title game, which would be likely in that scenario, they'd be in position to earn a spot as the runner-up. Some of that depends on how good those opponents turn out to be -- with Clemson the biggest question. Still, all three of those games are on the road, and all of them happen at the most meaningful point of the season. If Virginia Tech's only loss is on the road to any one of those three teams -- especially Miami -- the selection committee could seriously consider the Hokies for a playoff spot.
What the committee won't like: A Sept. 19 loss at Maryland. This is one of those trap games. There's a lot of history between Franklin, the Terps and Maryland coach Mike Locksley, as they both coached together there at one point as assistants. Locksley is also well aware that he's coaching for his job this season, and the schools also compete locally for many of the same recruits. There's some decent talent on Maryland's team, but if the committee is going to take the Hokies seriously as a playoff contender, Virginia Tech can't afford to lose this game -- not with the lineup that looms in November.