Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix is coming in off his worst game of the season -- concerning, given that Sean Payton's return to playcalling was meant to steady the wheel of the offense. No quarterback throws a smaller percentage of his attempts beyond 10 yards downfield than Nix, who has become uber-cautious and is scrambling less following his 2025 ankle injury. The Seattle Seahawks defense in third in yards per pass attempt allowed on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and second in explosive pass rate allowed. It's going to be a long night for the Broncos on offense if they can't find deeper throws tonight.
Seattle's offense has been too turnover-happy this season, as seen in losses to both the San Francisco 49ers and Washington Commanders. Sam Darnold's 28% interception + sack rate on pressured dropbacks is third highest in football, and the Broncos will look to heat him up in order to protect their backup defensive backs in this game, as both Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga are out and Riley Moss is questionable. Expect a huge diet of Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the Seahawks look to attack those backup corners, while the Broncos blitz in an effort to force Darnold into mistakes.
Betting outlook
The Seahawks are a tough bet to rely on given how erratic the offense has become, but down-to-down, they're easily a field goal better than Denver -- even on the road. Even if the Broncos manufacture an early lead, it's hard to imagine them maintaining it against one of the league's best run defenses in Seattle, such that the Seahawks can get to a 3-point win late. I lean to the Seahawks' side of the spread, but I would rather take some smaller bites on alt lines than put a full unit on the 2.5 and lose another bet on a Seahawks team that turns the ball over three-plus times.
The total of 40.5 is a low one, especially for a game with two shaky running games -- it will be hard for either offense to keep the clock running in the second half. The ceiling for the Broncos' offense, which needed four drives that started on the Los Angeles Chargers side of the field in the second half in order to win last week, is so low that it's hard to get to 41 points comfortably. I'm likely passing on points total bets in this game.
Seahawks alt line -7.5 (+196)
This is a challenging coaching spot for Mike Macdonald -- coming off a tight divisional loss, now on the road on a short week -- but it's the great coaches who respond well in these moments, and I think Macdonald is a great coach. His road record -- 13-6 against the spread -- is also worthy of trust. If Darnold can avoid the turnovers and Riley Moss doesn't go, Seattle should cruise to a substantial win.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
J.K. Dobbins rushing yards UNDER 49.5 (-114)
Solak: The Seahawks' defense is fifth best by yards per carry allowed to running backs, but they just came off one of their worst outings of the past two seasons under Mike Macdonald , allowing 68 yards on 11 carries by Christian McCaffrey. I like buying elite units after one-week dips, as they tend to have prideful performances to right the ship. Dobbins doesn't hit explosives, so he'll need serious volume to get to 50 yards.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 8+ receptions (+130)
Eric Moody: Smith-Njigba has averaged 10.0 targets per game this season and recorded at least eight receptions in three of five games. He also reached that mark in 11 of 20 games last season, including the postseason, and has a 74% catch rate since the start of last season. The Broncos have been tough on wide receivers, but Smith-Njigba is matchup-proof. Denver will also be without cornerback Pat Surtain II.
George Holani receiving yards OVER 10.5 (-112)
Solak: I always like RB receiving totals against the Broncos, whose heavy diet of man coverage forces linebackers Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad to chase running backs in space. Holani is the receiving back in Seattle and figures to get checkdown volume after early-down sacks from this aggressive Denver pass rush.