This season continues to have no mercy for Survivor players. Another 41% of the remaining entries were chopped off last week, leaving just 2.3% of the initial entries remaining after Week 7.
At least one favorite of at least seven points has lost in each of the first seven weeks, the first time that has happened since 1972. In each of the past two weeks, the only double-digit favorite on the board lost outright. Two weeks ago, the Los Angeles Rams fell to the Arizona Cardinals. Last week, it was the Houston Texans losing in overtime against the New York Giants.
Over 39% of the remaining entries have been eliminated in every week except Week 4. Last week, the New York Jets also made a significant dent in the pool, as users who adhered to the fade-Miami strategy were burned.
This week, the biggest favorite on the board is the Cincinnati Bengals, and they will likely be the most popular pick despite only being 51% available. The Bengals have the easiest schedule remaining in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, but they will have no better spot than this week, so the chalk is justified.
After that, there are several other strong options. The Jacksonville Jaguars are nearly as big of favorites as the Bengals at a lower selection. The Rams, New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys are all favored by about a touchdown, and all three have less future value than the Bengals or Jaguars.
There are even more viable options down the board. The Washington Commanders are off a bye hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. The Pittsburgh Steelers face a Cleveland Browns team they have beaten 22 straight times at home in the regular season. Even the Buffalo Bills could be a good pick against the Baltimore Ravens if Lamar Jackson is ruled out.
With so many players eliminated, it has never been more important to plan your route and know your competition. Check what teams your competitors still have available. If there are only a few people left, look at their tendencies in past weeks. Start to map out your picks for the remaining 12 weeks.
My top pick will vary from contest to contest. For single-pick contests like on ESPN, I like eating the chalk with the Bengals, or perhaps pivoting to the New England Patriots or Dallas Cowboys. If my group has double-pick weeks coming up, I prefer to save the Bengals and opt for the Patriots, Rams or Cowboys.
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change. Future value based on Mike Clay's cheat sheet.
1. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Tennessee Titans)
The Bengals are the simplest choice if you're just looking to pick the biggest favorite and move on. While they have plenty of future value, as they should be favored in every remaining game, this is clearly their best spot as of now. In contests like Splash, that would be enough for me to pivot off of them and save them for a double-pick week down the road at low ownership. But on ESPN, it is hard not to take the win equity now. Just make sure to look at your group's availability, because their ownership could vary widely based on pick availability.
Chance to win: 87% (ESPN Analytics), 94% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Bengals -10 (-500 moneyline)
Future value: Ninth
Availability: 51%
ESPN Selection: 25%
2. New England Patriots (at Miami Dolphins)
The Patriots are a perfect 13-0 outright as a favorite of at least three points under Mike Vrabel, so they have been trustworthy as big favorites. He is also 5-0 after a loss, while the Dolphins could be in a flat spot coming off their first win of the season against the Jets. Though Miami has historically been a house of horrors for the Patriots, this seems like a great spot for the Patriots on extra rest against a team that still grades out as the worst in the NFL. The Patriots still have games left against the Los Angeles Chargers, Jets and Dolphins after this week, but the home Dolphins game doesn't come until Week 18 while the other two games are both on the road.
Chance to win: 80% (ESPN Analytics), 78% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Patriots -7 (-340 moneyline)
Future value: 15th
Availability: 50%
ESPN Selection: 16%
3. Dallas Cowboys (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
The Cowboys will be a strong pick in three of the next five weeks, including this one. In Week 11, they host the Tennessee Titans, though there will likely be other strong, widely available picks in that week like the Bills and Chicago Bears. But Week 12 is the one to watch. Obviously things can change, but as of now, you want to be able to have either the Bengals, Cowboys or Jaguars available for that week. If you can cover Week 12 without Dallas, then the Cowboys are a much better pick this week. If not, there are enough good options this week where I would save them.
Chance to win: 78% (ESPN Analytics), 86% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Cowboys -6.5 (-310 moneyline)
Future value: Fifth
Availability: 87%
ESPN Selection: 16%
4. Los Angeles Rams (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
The Rams have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, so a "home" game against the winless Chargers is hard to pass up. Still, this spot looks similar to the Dolphins last week -- coming off a bye, looking for their first win against a rival -- and the Chargers don't have to get on a plane. I would be more likely to use them on Splash than on ESPN or Circa, given their lack of future value for Splash and multiple prime-time games for Circa.
Chance to win: 74% (ESPN Analytics), 91% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Rams -6.5 (-290 moneyline)
Future value: 11th
Availability: 86%
ESPN Selection: 17%
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
The Jaguars are one of the highest-value teams in Survivor. They still have two games against the Titans, a home Commanders game, and road games against the Colts and Giants. They will likely be the biggest favorites on the board in Weeks 10 and 12, which will likely be the two toughest weeks in November. That makes me lean towards wanting to save them, especially with their ESPN selection likely to increase throughout the week. They are just 68% available on ESPN, and even lower on other sites, so if you can get through this week, there will be other strong spots to use Jacksonville.
Chance to win: 73% (ESPN Analytics), 83% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Jaguars -9.5 (-425 moneyline)
Future value: Third
Availability: 68%
ESPN Selection: 14%
6. Washington Commanders (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
The Commanders are seemingly in the dream spot this week, as home favorites coming off a bye with their opponent coming off Monday Night Football. However, since 2000, those teams are just 4-7 outright and 1-9-1 against the spread. Still, it's hard to ignore a Commanders team that will likely never be this big of a favorite again all season. At the current 1% selection on ESPN, they are a good pick, though I expect them to be significantly higher picked in high-stakes pools.
Chance to win: 64% (ESPN Analytics), 79% (Mike Clay)
Spread: Commanders -5.5 (-218 moneyline)
Future value: 24th
Availability: 100%
ESPN Selection: 1%