It's a Super Bowl rematch to start the season, and despite Seattle's dominant 29-13 win -- which was even more one-sided than the final score implies -- the Seahawks are only a 3-point favorite at home against the New England Patriots on Wednesday. The Seahawks' departures in the secondary (Coby Bryant, Riq Woolen) have put their defensive back depth under a microscope, and with a litany of preseason injuries entering the contest (Bud Clark on injured reserve; Nick Emmanwori and Ty Okada expected out), it could be an easier day through the air for the Patriots. The arrival of free agent receiver Romeo Doubs and trade acquisition A.J. Brown certainly help there as well.
It's a new offense in Seattle, as coordinator Klint Kubiak departed to take the Las Vegas Raiders' head coaching job. Brian Fleury replaces him and figures to run much of the same stuff but without Super Bowl MVP RB Kenneth Walker III, who left in free agency for the Kansas City Chiefs, meaning the Seahawks will need a new go-to player for this rematch. The Patriots are alarmingly thin on pass rushers; Harold Landry remains on PUP, and second-round rookie Edge Gabe Jacas is still working his way into form after a long offseason absence. Sam Darnold should have time when he needs to drop back.
Betting outlook
I'm expecting a heavier dose of dropbacks on both sides of the ball. Seattle's offensive approach will remain full of heavy personnel and run action but given the Patriots' weakness at pass rusher and the uncertain state of the Seahawks' running back room, the air should be the preferred method of attack for the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the Patriots have two shiny new pass catchers in Doubs and Brown that they're excited to debut against a Seahawks secondary that's absent Woolen and Bryant (departed in free agency) and likely Emmanwori and Okada (injury). That, along with the expected absence of running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle), gives the Patriots a bigger edge in the passing game than they had last go around.
With more passes expected, I lean to the over at 44.5 (-108). But 44 is a key number, and Week 1 has been heavy to the under over the past few years. Unders were 4-12 in the opening week last season and 29-51 over the past five Week 1s. Defenses tend to start the year with catered game plans, given the long runway for planning. Does the familiarity for these two teams change that at all? I'm not sure. I'll look to get a live over if we fall below 44 early in the first quarter, but I don't feel compelled to take anything preflop.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.
Total points UNDER 44.5 (-112)
Joe Fortenbaugh: Let's start with the Seattle offense, a unit that ranked eighth in scoring last season. That group will be without Super Bowl MVP Walker, backup running back Zach Charbonnet (knee) and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak (Raiders head coach). That's a sizeable chunk missing from a first-class offense. The defense, while not exactly the same as the unit that ranked first in the NFL in defensive EPA last season, will still prove formidable and has the benefit of the crowd noise at Lumen Field. The key to the handicap, however, is the fact that Week 1 scoring has dipped the past few years, thanks to defenses that have favored an abundance of 2-deep safety looks in order to limit explosive plays. Case in point: Week 1 of the 2021 season saw an average total score of 48 points. In the four years since, the Week 1 average total score has dropped to 42.5 points.
Rhamondre Stevenson rushing yards UNDER 58.5 (-110)
Solak: The Patriots could not run the ball a lick in their Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks. Stevenson had 23 yards on seven carries and Henderson had another 19 on six. Drake Maye ended up being the Pats' leading rusher thanks to his scrambles. Now, Stevenson's total rushing prop has risen given Henderson's dubious status for Wednesday's game (ankle). At 58.5, I'm willing to take the under. I expect a pass-heavy approach for the Patriots, given their new receiver room (Doubs, Brown) and the Seahawks' injuries in the secondary (Emmanwori, Okada).
Eli Raridon anytime TD scorer (11-1, first TD scorer (50-1)
Solak: Raridon, the Patriots' third-round rookie tight end, has been a depth chart climber all offseason. Free agent TE Julian Hill, signed to be the blocking running mate to incumbent starter Hunter Henry, was lost for the season with knee injury. That opened the door for Raridon to climb to TE2, and he spent most of the preseason on the bench with the starters while other rookies accumulated snaps. I'll take touchdown odds at longer than 10-1 on a TE2 who figures to get play-action routes in the red zone any day of the week.
Hunter Henry receiving yards OVER 34.5 (-110)
Eric Moody: Brown and Doubs should draw plenty of targets, but Henry still has Maye's trust and should remain heavily involved. He finished second on the Patriots in targets last season and has ranked 12th or better in end zone targets in seven of his nine seasons. The matchup helps too, as Seattle allowed the fifth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends last season.