Connor McDavid is going to score 200 points this season.
I truly, truly believe this.
Or at least I want to believe it.
It has happened only four times in NHL history, all by players named "Wayne Gretzky." The Great One's apex was 215 points in 1985-86, a single-season record that McDavid's early points-per-game pace (2.53) is threatening. That's also the last time any player hit 200 points in the NHL.
The 200-point season was a forgotten relic of the 1980s, like acid wash jeans or Spuds MacKenzie. It made sense that Gretzky or Mario Lemieux could push for 200 points in an era that didn't have structured defensive systems, goalies with refined technique or, like, Russians.
McDavid's scoring pace so far is frankly unfathomable. I never thought I'd see a player break 200 again without some fundamental change to the NHL, like making regulation 3-on-3 or altering the dimensions of the net itself to soccer goal widths.
The mind boggles that someone might legitimately threaten to hit 200. But then McDavid has a way of boggling the mind.
"It seems so unrealistic, that number 200, but you look at what he's done so far ... if there's anyone that's going to do it, it's him," Devils forward Luke Evangelista told me recently. "He's putting up video game numbers right now. Like it's on 'easy mode.' I literally can't believe the start that he's had."
McDavid scored 48 points in his first 19 games this season, including 11 goals. Entering Wednesday night's game against the Philadelphia Flyers, McDavid was on pace to tally 212 points, which would tie Gretzky's 1981-82 total for the second most in league history. He was also on pace for 163 assists, which ESPN Research said would tie Gretzky's 1985-86 total.
McDavid is the fourth player in NHL history with 48 or more points before his 20th game, and the fourth player to have a 19-game point streak to start the season. He has three five-point games and two four-point games.
Hitting 200 points, a mark no one has legitimately threatened to hit in nearly 40 years, is in his sights.
So how is he doing this?
When asked about his personal achievements, McDavid has consistently deferred to his Oilers teammates. I know he recently said that he's not a robot, but the constant deflection of praise over the course of his career very much feels like a programmed prime directive.
"I'm playing with some special players. That helps. Getting some bounces, too," he said recently. "When the team is winning games, I've been the beneficiary of some great team play."
McDavid has also credited his start to the Oilers having made a coaching change, one that my colleague Mark Messier infamously noted was rubber-stamped by McDavid himself. Mike Babcock has the Oilers playing a more structured defensive scheme, and McDavid said that has reinvigorated him.
"It's actually been really fun to just dive in and have to sink your teeth into a new system, a new way of playing. It's left my own [game] secondary. Just trying to take care of the things I need to do within the system," he said. "It's just been a byproduct of everybody playing well."
Defenseman Mattias Ekholm said the Oilers are aware of, but not discussing, McDavid's push for 200 points.
"Can he do it? Absolutely. Is it a thing that we go around here or that he thinks about? Not really at all. We're just trying to do our best every game. I know he is as well. That's what makes him special," he said. "He just wants the team to win, wants the team to have success. And when the team does have success, it's usually because he's playing great. So it's awesome to see."
Ekholm acknowledged that he didn't think McDavid had another level to his game, and has his own theory as to why McDavid has been able to reach it. The veteran defenseman told me that last season's playoff flameout -- losing in the first round to the Anaheim Ducks -- might have ironically been the best thing for McDavid.
Obviously, the early ouster meant more recovery time than McDavid has had in the previous four postseasons -- and when you factor in 4 Nations Face-Off and the Olympics, that's a lot of hockey.
"I'm 100% certain it's the rest. The fact that we got knocked out early in the playoffs, you get another two months to get the body rested up," Ekholm said. "Those two long runs, they'll take a toll on the body."
But Ekholm also told me something interesting about losing early vs. having your dreams crushed in the Stanley Cup Final, as McDavid and the Oilers experienced in 2024 and 2025.
"When you're knocked out in the first round and you get punched in the nose a little bit, I think that can help with your mental space and your motivation," he said.
"You reevaluate yourself in a bigger way when you lose in the first round than you maybe do in the finals, because you're so close and you're almost trying to find excuses as to why you didn't go all the way. There are no excuses for losing in the first round. So it's just different."
So Connor McDavid is rested physically and mentally, and somehow hungrier after getting dispatched by the Ducks than he was when the Florida Panthers batted him away from the Stanley Cup. And he has decided to take this out on the record books.
But the most likely reason for this historic offensive start is also the most obvious one:
He's Connor Flippin' McDavid, a hockey deity with an unparalleled combination of speed, agility, vision, reflexes and on-ice IQ.
"It's easy to get intimidated by a guy like that. If he's able to turn and burn, he's going to make you look bad," Devils forward Connor Brown said.
Brown has been McDavid's friend since their days with the OHL's Erie Otters and were teammates for two seasons in Edmonton. He has texted McDavid during this bonkers start to the season. Brown has long thought 200 points was in McDavid's reach.
"I remember going to Edmonton a few years ago and I thought that was always in the cards," he said.
I think he does it. I think he breaks 200.
Sadly, that puts me in direct contrast with people much smarter than I am, ones who know math and stuff.
"I'll take the side of 'no' for the following math reasons," said Vince Masi, a research producer at ESPN.
Here's a sampling of what a Council of Big Brains said when I asked them if McDavid will hit 200 points:
Vince Masi, ESPN
McDavid has averaged 75 games played in a season over the previous three seasons. If he were to maintain his current pace of 2.53 points per game and play 75 games, he would be on pace for 189 points.
He'll have to play in 80 games while maintaining the current pace just to get the pace to 200-plus and would be a pace for 202. Over the past three seasons, the highest points-per-game rate in a month was 1.90 in December, so he'd have to overperform even higher than his already high pace.
A more realistic goal is to break his own mark for points in the salary cap era when he had 153 in 2022-23 -- and he played in all 82 games that season. There's bound to be some sort of regression, and not necessarily directly from him.
The Oilers are shooting 26.7% on the power play when he's on the ice, which would be four percentage points better than his single-season career high of 22.5% in 2022-23. They're shooting 16.9% at 5-on-5 with him out there, which would be five percentage points better than his previous high in 2019-20 and 2020-21.
For perspective, the NHL leaders this season in 5-on-5 shooting percentage are the Avalanche and Capitals (as of Nov. 10) at 12.6%. Stathletes projects McDavid for 166 points based on his shot quality and passing quality.
Rachel Doerrie, ESPN
No, he will not get 200. But, barring injury, I think he hits 170, which would be the first time in the modern era since Lemieux.
There are dog days of the season, teams tighten up defensively and they'll try to adjust to him. I also believe he'll focus more defensively in March to prepare for the playoffs, and might even get some rest as well. He's slowing down (only two points per game now) and I think 170 is probably the ceiling here, which should have him 30 points ahead of the next player -- and a unanimous MVP winner.
Jack Fraser, HockeyStats.com
McDavid has done the near impossible so far this season, there is absolutely no doubt about that. But doing that over 19 games is very different than doing it in 84.
So far this season, No. 97 is clicking at a 16.9% on-ice shooting percentage at 5-on-5 and 5.25 on-ice goals per 60 minutes. His norm, even with his own skill and the skill of his frequent linemate Leon Draisaitl is 10.4% and 3.7. Right now, the Oilers are scoring 1.9 goals above expected every 60 minutes with him out there. To even approach any of these numbers in a full season would be beyond unprecedented.
You might say "Hey! This is McDavid we're talking about here!"
[I sheepishly raise my hand]
But we've already seen the regression begin -- in the past 12 games, he has been at roughly league average marks and has six 5-on-5 points. It just so happens that the power play got super hot. That's all before you get into considerations like ice time, how long the Oilers will keep him and Draisaitl together, etc.
In short, we will probably forget about the race to 200 by February, if not quite a bit earlier, once he has gone through his version of a cold streak or if Babcock finally changes things. I would put the smart money somewhere between 160-170 if he stays healthy and plays all season with Draisaitl. That's still one of the best seasons in NHL history, certainly the best since Lemieux.
Mike Kelly, NHL Network
I'm going to break my rule, which is never bet against the superstars, but I don't think 200 is likely.
McDavid would need to score at a 2.34 points-per-game pace the rest of the way. He's higher than that through 19 games, but his career high in a full season is 1.87. It's remarkable what he's doing and I hope he does it, but I will say unlikely.
OK, so the analytics community isn't in "The 200 Club" with me and Connor. The conventional thinking is that he taps out at around 170 points, which would be the highest total since 1988 and the first time anyone not named Gretzky or Lemieux even broke 160 points.
But here's the takeaway: If he gets to 170 points or higher, McDavid will have orchestrated perhaps the single greatest individual offensive season in NHL history.
As I referenced earlier, players like Gretzky, Lemieux and Bobby Orr were rewriting the record book in eras that never approached the quality of talent, speed, depth and defensive obstacles that McDavid faces today. In the 1980s, there were 24 instances of players scoring at least 135 points, with 10 different players hitting that mark. Since the 2005-06 NHL reset, it has happened four times: Twice by McDavid, and once by Nikita Kucherov (144) and Nathan MacKinnon (140).
When Alex Ovechkin was chasing Gretzky's goals record, a popular theme was that even if he fell short it would have been an all-time accomplishment given the era in which he plays. I'm not saying that McDavid's projected 170 points should be rounded up to a "modern gentleman's 200"; just that hitting 170 in 2026-27 should stand next to Gretzky's elephantine 215 points when one considers the era.
But I still think he breaks 200, even if it defies the math and he logic. It's Connor. It's what he does.
"Every time you think that he's found another level, he finds another level," Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid's teammate in Edmonton since he entered the league, told me. "We're not putting it past him, that's for sure. There's no doubt in our minds that he can just keep climbing, keep breaking records and keep hitting numbers that we haven't seen in a long time."
Jump ahead:
Winners, losers of the week
Favorite on-ice moment
Must-see games
Puck headlines
WINNERS AND LOSERS
Winner: Andrew Brunette's job security
After the Nashville Predators missed the playoffs in two straight seasons and the team hired a new general manager in Chris MacFarland, the future of head coach Andrew Brunette seemed murky at best.
He appears safe for now: Nashville has been one of the league's bigger surprises through 18 games, going 9-4-5 and sitting in a Western Conference playoff spot.
Yes, the Predators are extremely top-heavy, as their veteran stars are carrying the offense. But rebound seasons from Juuse Saros and Roman Josi have helped make Nashville a playoff contender and keep their coach off the hot seat.
Loser: Jeff Blashill's job security
The Chicago Blackhawks are terrible (again), which has led the widespread speculation that Blashill probably will lose his job. But GM Kyle Davidson said Blashill is "our head coach" and "I have full confidence in him."
So there you go: Jeff Blashill is the head coach of the Chicago Blackhawks. That should end the speculation, as all votes of confidence from general managers do.
Winner: 'Expected win probability'
Whether or not it was the actual rationale for not playing Connor Hellebuyck against his former team the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, the New Jersey Devils are now permanently married to the phrase "a reduction in our expected win probability."
The Jets clowned the Devils about it online and in the arena, where the scoreboard said New Jersey's win probability was 0% after their 4-2 loss.
Every Devils' loss, going forward? "Expected win probability" memes. Every Devils' playoff elimination? "Expected win probability" memes. The unintended consequences of diversionary tactics.
Loser: Connor Hellebuyck's approach
As I've previously reported, it's my understanding that Hellebuyck's primary motivation to ask out of Winnipeg was hockey-related, although his news conference Tuesday was focused primarily on the threats and abuse that he said his family received after Hellebuyck won Olympic gold for the United States and attended the State of the Union address.
With the benefit of hindsight, I think he would have been better off focusing on "the uncertainty with my career," as he briefly phrased it. Being 33 years old, wanting to win a Stanley Cup, seeing the Jets miss the playoffs and have talent defections like Nikolaj Ehlers in the past two seasons ... I can't help but feel that would have been more well-received by some fans, especially given how much he gave the organization (three Vezinas and a Hart).
Winner: Cutter Gauthier
He had 15 goals through his first 17 games for the Ducks, who continue to be the NHL's wildest ride (3.83 goals for, 3.67 goals against per game).
All of this is happening while the team he rejected -- the Philadelphia Flyers -- are again faced with the possibility of trading a young offensive star who doesn't want to be there.
Loser: Jakob Chychrun's follower count
The NHL Follow Tracker account on X, which monitors the Instagram activity of NHL players, continues to serve up the occasional juicy gossip nugget. Like Ottawa Senators forward Nick Cousins unfollowing Washington Capitals defenseman Jakob Chychrun, with whom he was teammates during their time in Arizona.
This came after Chychrun delivered one of the hardest legal checks in recent NHL history to put Cousins out of their game Tuesday night -- a hit that impacted Cousins to the point where he unfollowed Chychrun's IG account at 2:48 a.m., according to the tracker. Obviously, Cousins has decided making this statement is more important than more videos of shirtless defensemen eating whole watermelons.
FAVORITE ON-ICE MOMENT
The #NJDevils attempt some of the softest warmup shots this arena has ever seen here pre-game. A couple go in and #NHLJets fans give him the gears. https://t.co/PrZjM6Yyb8
— Carter Brooks (@CBrooksie84) November 10, 2026
The only opportunity Jets fans had to share their feelings with Hellebuyck was when he skated out for warmups with the Devils. The crowd reacted every time the maligned goalie had a puck fly past him. So his New Jersey teammates serve him up some absolute muffins for easy saves, to deprive them of their chance to jeer.
FAVORITE OFF-ICE MOMENT
I greatly anticipated Hellebuyck's return to Winnipeg because Jets fans are viciously creative in their arena chanting when properly motivated. I still remember them chanting "silver medal!" at Ryan Miller 14 years ago, referencing his Olympic gold medal game loss in 2010.
They did not disappoint in Hellebuyck's return to Winnipeg. Mike McIntrye of the Winnipeg News chronicled the chants Tuesday night. Here's my Anti-Hellebuyck Chant Power Rankings:
5. WHERE IS CONNOR? (Calling out Hellebuyck as he didn't start and didn't even sit near the ice as a backup.)
4. F--- YOU HELLY (Straight and to the point, although not exactly Manitoba Nice.)
3. PLAYOFF CHOKER (Attacking both his legacy and his mental toughness. Well done.)
2. YOU'RE A COWARD, HELLEBUYCK, sung to tune of Oh My Darling, Clementine (No notes. Perfect.)
1. YOU CAN'T FISH HERE (Hellebuyck is one of the NHL's most prolific fishermen, to the point where he referenced it in his recent Instagram statement before even mentioning his former Jets teammates. To close him off from the beautiful Canadian lakes and their bounty of aquatic life ... not doubt these words hurt the most.)
MUST-SEE GAMES
Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils
Nov. 12, 7 p.m. ET
The Devils claimed that Hellebuyck didn't face the Jets because they wanted him rested and ready for a home and home against the division rival Capitals. Imagine, for a moment, that he doesn't play well in these games? Yikes.
Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers
Nov. 17, 7 p.m. ET
Animosity still runs deep between these two, who met for the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons (2024-25). But from an Oilers' perspective, this will be a solid early test for a team that has been one of the NHL's best so far.
PUCK HEADLINES
DATELINE: Philadelphia
ESPN's Kevin Weekes dropped a bombshell Tuesday night with a report that Flyers star winger Matvei Michkov "wanted a new start elsewhere," and that there was internal turmoil between him and the team, and would be a prime trade candidate. There was pushback from coach Rick Tocchet and GM Daniel Briere that Michkov had not asked for a trade, with Briere calling Weekes' report "not correct."
Of course, Weekes never reported that Michkov had demanded a trade. But nonetheless ...
Briere had media availability Wednesday night to address the report and dispel any notion that Michkov or his representatives had expressed a desire to have him traded. "What was told to us was that they were not behind it," the Flyers' GM said.
What Briere didn't do was dispel the notion that there's friction between Michkov and his teammates. He was asked about the "internal turmoil" that Weekes cited and speculation about a rift between teammates, as was potentially evidenced by a public spat on the bench between Michkov and defenseman Nick Seeler recently.
"There's always moments. It's like brothers and sisters fighting. It happens. We saw it the other night on the bench with Nick Seeler," he said. "They're competitive guys. Matvei is one of the most competitive players that we've had here in a while. And when you're not winning, yeah, there's some rifts here or there. I've been through it in my career many, many times."
So yes, there is turmoil between Michkov and his teammates. Briere says he believes it can be chalked up to the Flyers' stumble this season.
"I'm actually glad that they don't accept it. And if they were all good with what's happening, I'd be more worried," he said.
DATELINE: GM meetings
NHL commissioner Gary Bettman is still monitoring player use of no-trade clauses to force movement to the teams of their choosing.
"If it's a problem, and one offseason does not a problem make, we'll have to address it with the Players Association," he said in Toronto this week. "My view is that a no-trade clause is not a one-way street and a player isn't entitled to be traded if his team doesn't want to trade him."
We've heard that from Bettman before, but he added something in his post-GM meetings news conference: "A player is not entitled to demand a trade under contract. Contracts have meaning."
I disagree. Players are entitled to demand a trade while under contract. They're just not entitled to be traded wherever they choose, which has been the issue with the no-trade clauses.
Look at a situation like the Dylan Larkin drama in Detroit. Interim GM Shawn Horcoff says he believes there are trades he can make if Larkin expands his trade list. Larkin probably believes that he'll end up in a place where he wants to be -- like Minnesota -- if he just sticks to his current list and waits out the Wings.
He can't trade himself. That's up to Detroit. It's just a matter of who blinks first. In almost every situation we've seen in the player empowerment era, it's the team that does. Which is why Bettman is having to pay this any mind.