NFC North: Bears win division? Cousins has Vikes in command?

No one in the NFL was on a bigger high coming out of last weekend than the Green Bay Packers.

They trounced the defending AFC champion New England Patriots 45-27 and put together their best performance of the season to improve to 6-3.

And then Packers coach Matt LaFleur killed the buzz: "The reality is this: We're in last place in our division right now."

Such is life in the NFC North, the most victorious division in football, where the Chicago Bears are on top at 7-3, followed by the Detroit Lions (6-2), Minnesota Vikings (6-2) and Packers (6-3).

The NFC North is the seventh division since 2002 with all four teams above .500 through Week 9, according to ESPN Research. It has the best combined record (25-9, 73.5 winning percentage) by any division in the first nine weeks of a season under the current division format, which began 24 years ago.

The last time all four teams in a division had a winning record at this point in a season was 2023 with the AFC North. All four finished with winning records, and all but the Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) made the playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens made it to the AFC Championship Game.

On the flip side of that was the 2022 AFC East, which also had every team with a winning record through Week 9 but had only two teams reach the playoffs, and neither advanced past the divisional round.

ESPN's FPI gives the Bears the best shot at winning the division at 35.1%, ahead of the Vikings (29.7%), Lions (24.7%) and Packers (10.5%).

So what's real and what's not in the NFC North? Reporters Courtney Cronin (Bears), Rob Demovsky (Packers), Kevin Seifert (Vikings) and Eric Woodyard (Lions) give their insight:

Real or not: Acquiring Kirk Cousins puts Vikings in driver's seat to win the division.

Cronin: Not real. Cousins' first two games leave little room for an offense adjusting to a new quarterback. Minnesota faces Green Bay at Lambeau Field in Week 10 and then NFC-leading San Francisco in Mexico City. The stretch of Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit and Washington at home is when the Vikings have the best chance to add to their six wins, but two others in the NFC North -- Chicago, with the most complete team, and Detroit, which has the No. 5 scoring offense (27.8 PPG) -- have a better shot at the division title.

Woodyard: Not real. Although Cousins should be an upgrade to the quarterbacks room, this doesn't immediately fix everything that's wrong with the offense -- or team. Entering Week 10, the Vikings have the NFL's second-worst offensive efficiency (23.77) and Cousins isn't necessarily in the prime of his career at 38, but he does have familiarity in their offensive system and should stabilize the unit enough to compete for a division title.

Seifert: Not real. It's just too early to say that Cousins can, on his own, lift an offense that ranks No. 31 in EPA enough to ensure superiority over the rest of the division. The truth is quarterback hasn't been only issue. Playcalling, run-game efficiency and, at times, pass protection, have all played roles.

Demovsky: Not real. In any other division, perhaps a quarterback change of this magnitude on a team that has the No. 2-ranked defense in the NFL would tip the scales in its favor. That doesn't mean Cousins won't help the offense reverse course toward respectability, but it was only a matter of time before this punchless offense made water find its level with the Vikings.

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Stephen A.: Caleb Williams' performance vs. the Bucs was a 'bad look'

Real or not: Caleb Williams' four picks Sunday were a blip on his way to MVP.

Cronin: Not real. The interceptions themselves are a blip, as Williams had the fourth-lowest interception rate (0.6) entering Week 9. Only the first of the four picks were problematic, with Williams admitting he got "greedy" trying to fit a tight-window ball at the goal line. His MVP case needed to be built off peak efficiency to make up for the three games he missed with his hamstring injury, and it's hard to envision him now catching up with the Joe Burrow and Josh Allen at the top of the leaderboard.

Demovsky: Real. I'm going to give him a pass for several reasons: He played mostly interception-free before Sunday against Tampa. One of his interceptions was clearly the fault of receiver Luther Burden III because it bounced off his hands, and two others were the result of heavy pressure. The biggest thing working against his MVP case might be his three-game absence.

Woodyard: Not real. Williams is certainly a worthy candidate but might not even be the MVP of the NFC North with the way that Packers QB Jordan Love has also been playing -- and without missing any games. Obviously the four interceptions are an anomaly, but he will have to beat out some strong candidates with more efficient play to separate himself.

Seifert: Not real. I think the Bears are the best team in the division, and Williams has a lot to do with that. The quarterback of a top NFL team is a natural candidate for MVP. But his four-interception game was a by-product of the way he plays -- aggressively downfield and extending plays outside the pocket. Burrow, Brock Purdy and Allen are stronger MVP candidates.

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Matt LaFleur emphasizing importance of Vikings game Sunday

Real or not: Micah Parsons' eventual return to the Packers will be the biggest addition for any NFC North team.

Cronin: Not real. Jeffery Simmons would like a word given how quickly he elevated the floor of the Bears' defense upon his arrival in Week 8. Chicago went from blitzing at the fifth-highest rate (42%) prior to the All-Pro defensive tackle's arrival to being able to win with a standard pass rush more frequently. Parsons has not played since Dec. 14, 2025 and will take time to ramp up to his best form. Meanwhile, Simmons' on-field impact is only getting stronger after he logged 87% of snaps in his debut and 97% of snaps in Week 9.

Woodyard: Real. Parsons is a legitimate game changer and will immediately raise the floor for Green Bay's defense. At his best, there's no question that he's one of the top defensive players in the league, but the question is how long it'll take him to get back to full speed after returning from his ACL injury.

Seifert: Real. While it might take Parsons some time to ramp up to full strength from a conditioning standpoint, he is the NFL's best pass rusher and that alone will change how every team approaches games against the Packers. The threat alone of his presence, and the need to track wherever he is on the field, is a huge lift for the defense.

Demovsky: Real. While the Packers didn't make any moves at the trade deadline, Parsons' return (likely on Thanksgiving eve at the Rams) trumps the Bears' trade for Simmons. Parsons has taken extra time to rehab because he wants to be as close to 100% as possible, giving him a better chance to make an immediate impact. As good a job as new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has done without Parsons, he admitted recently that he thinks about what he'll be able to do with Parsons "every day."

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Why Dopp doesn’t like the Lions matchup for Corey Kiner

Real or not: The most overlooked storyline is the Lions' defensive improvement.

Cronin: Real. Kelvin Sheppard's unit deserves a lot of credit for holding the Packers and Vikings (with differing levels of QB play) to 17 and 15 points in back-to-back weeks while allowing fewer than 20 points in three straight games. What stands out most is Detroit being one of 11 teams to hold opponents under 100 rushing yards in every game this season.

Woodyard: Real. After the 32-26 Week 4 loss in Carolina, Sheppard was under heavy fire -- and rightfully so -- when the defense allowed at least 30 or more points in three of its first four games for the first time since the infamous 0-16 season in 2008. To his credit, coach Dan Campbell stuck with Sheppard while continuing to back him, and Detroit has gone 3-0 during their streak of holding opponents to 20 points or fewer.

Seifert: Not real. It's always important to keep opponents in mind when evaluating statistical surges. In the past two games, the Lions have held the Vikings to 15 points and the Dolphins to 9 points. They rank as the NFL's No. 31 and No. 21 scoring offenses. The Lions are no doubt playing better on defense now than at the beginning of the season, but it hasn't been a huge jump.

Demovsky: Not real. I know I just watched the Lions hold the Packers to 17 points a few weeks ago and that the Lions have held teams to only 13.7 points per game in their past three outings, but the Packers left seven points off the board in the kicking game alone when Trey Smack missed two field goals and an extra point.

Real or not: DraftKings has the Bears as favorites to repeat as champs for good reason.

Cronin: Real. The Bears' runway coming out of the bye is favorable with the Saints in Week 11 and the lowly Dolphins in Week 14, but Chicago has four division opponents (after an 0-2 start in NFC North play) and two potential Super Bowl previews with the Jaguars and Bills. Still, the Bears have proved they can win ugly and coach Ben Johnson is 7-0 in November since arriving in Chicago. With the most complete team in the division and an offense scoring 30.7 points per game when Williams has been under center, the Bears are in position to capture the division crown again.

Woodyard: Not real. The Bears might be the most well-rounded team in the division, but the Lions beat them twice last season, as Campbell could be one of the few coaches who knows how to counter the attack of Johnson -- his former offensive coordinator. The division is certainly up for grabs, but Detroit's explosive offense could be the game-changer in the division title race.

Seifert: Real. The Bears have the most well-rounded team in the division, and maybe the conference, following the trade for Simmons. But the one thing to watch is that both of their losses this season were in the division. That could be detrimental in a division tiebreaker if that is how the season ends.

Demovsky: Real. The Bears are the best team in the division despite being 0-2. They ran into Minnesota's red-hot early-season defense in Week 2 and played without their quarterback in Week 5 at Green Bay. They haven't even played the Lions yet, and Green Bay still has to go to Soldier Field as part of the three-game finishing stretch for the Bears that goes Packers at home, Lions at home and Vikings on the road.