A 24-team playoff can't come soon enough for the Big 12.
One week ago, it was not only possible but reasonable to think the league could get as many as three teams in the 12-team College Football Playoff this year, with BYU, Utah and Texas Tech all sitting in the top 12.
Turns out those seats were on a cliff.
With BYU and Texas Tech both losing on Saturday, the Big 12's chances of getting multiple teams in the CFP were significantly damaged. Utah is the only undefeated team remaining following its narrow win against Houston, but the Utes still have to play BYU. The Big 12 champ is guaranteed a CFP spot, but will the selection committee take the runner-up if it has multiple losses?
It's a question that can't be answered in a vacuum -- it depends on how the teams around them fare. Just like how the Big 12's results had a trickle-down effect on everyone else in the latest top 12 projection.
So how far did BYU, Texas Tech and the hopes of the Big 12 fall?
Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were today.
Projecting the top 12
1. Miami Hurricanes (7-0)
Why they could be here: Miami's convincing win against Pitt was another example of the Canes' consistency, as they have won all but one game by double digits. The only game this season that was remotely close was Oct. 17 against in-state rival Florida State, which was a 43-35 double overtime win. Miami has steadily ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is a common trait of past playoff teams. The Canes also have a Heisman candidate in receiver Malachi Toney, and a quality ACC road win against Wake Forest.
Why they could be lower: Miami's strength of schedule has been average, with only one ranked win and three wins against teams above .500. One of Miami's wins was against FCS Florida A&M, which has a losing record in the SWAC, and the 77-7 score skews the overall stats.
Need to know: Even if Miami loses to Notre Dame, it would make the playoff as the ACC champ. But what if the Canes don't win the ACC? If Wake Forest pulls off the upset -- and the Deacs are the most likely team to face Miami in the ACC title game right now -- it could open the door for two ACC teams to get in. Wake would be guaranteed a spot as the ACC champion and Miami could claim a regular-season win against the eventual ACC champs.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. It will be the second straight road game for Miami after traveling to North Carolina on Halloween, and it will likely be the Canes' last ranked opponent they face during the regular season.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1)
Why they could be here: The biggest reason is because the selection committee hasn't seen enough of Ohio State without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin. The Buckeyes didn't move during their bye week because nobody did enough to unseat them, and Miami strengthened its grip on the top spot. Ohio State's two road wins against ranked Big Ten teams -- Oct. 3 at Iowa and Oct. 17 at Indiana -- are keeping the Buckeyes afloat, but it didn't help that Iowa lost to Minnesota on Saturday. More than that, though, is how well Ohio State's defense has played in the first half of the season, holding opponents to just 13.4 points per game. The road win against the Hoosiers will continue to impress after Indiana got its first win in Ann Arbor since 1967, even if the Hoosiers needed overtime to do it.
Why they could be lower: Ohio State was fortunate that wide-open Indiana receiver Nick Marsh landed out of bounds on what would have been the game-winning touchdown with about a minute left in Week 7. Sayin also threw two interceptions against the Hoosiers, and some committee members might have concerns about what they saw from Luke Fahey's limited time in the game (0-2 passing).
Need to know: The selection committee won't judge Ohio State until it has a chance to see what the Buckeyes look like without Sayin in the lineup, which is why Saturday's performance at USC is so important. Whether it's true freshman Fahey or sophomore Tavien St. Clair, the Buckeyes have to continue to look like a top-four team to stay in first-round bye contention.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 31 at USC. A Halloween game against a good team on the other side of the country with a new starting quarterback. What could possibly go wrong?
3. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1)
Why they could be here: The committee doesn't usually move teams during a bye week unless something around them happens, and with BYU losing at UCF and Indiana struggling for the second straight week, the door opened for Georgia to jump up. Indiana didn't pass the eye test -- this time against a struggling Michigan team. Georgia's statement win against Alabama is better than anything Indiana and Notre Dame have on their résumés. It would outweigh Indiana's "good loss" to Ohio State, and the committee would likely reward Georgia for that even though Indiana's loss to Ohio State is better than Georgia's home loss to Auburn. The 20-17 win at Alabama is Georgia's lone win against a ranked opponent, while Indiana and Notre Dame are searching for a statement win. Bama beating Texas A&M by double digits Saturday was a boost for Georgia. The Dawgs are still one of the SEC's best on both sides of the ball, ranking in the top three in both scoring offense and defense.
Why they could be lower: Some committee members could value BYU's win over Notre Dame more than Georgia's win against two-loss Bama. The Bulldogs' home loss to Auburn looks worse after LSU went on the road and upended Auburn on Saturday, 38-17. Georgia hasn't looked elite against better competition in each of the last two games it's played. Tennessee State is a sub-.500 FCS team, Western Kentucky is 3-4 in C-USA, and Arkansas is 3-4. Georgia outscored those teams 178-40. Against Auburn and Alabama, Georgia had a combined four turnovers and 11 penalties.
Need to know: Saturday's game against Florida is critical to the playoff race because the head-to-head tiebreaker could come into play in the committee meeting room if both teams have two losses. The committee also considers common opponents, and Florida beat Auburn. Florida, like LSU, was also able to beat Auburn on the road.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Ole Miss. Georgia's trip to Oxford will likely be the highest-ranked opponent it faces for the rest of the regular season, and will give the committee an important head-to-head result to consider.
4. BYU Cougars (6-1)
Why they could be here: With an identical record to Notre Dame, the selection committee could rely on the head-to-head tiebreaker to keep the Cougars ahead of the Irish. BYU has ranked outside of the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiencies, while Ohio State has been top-10 in both. BYU's loss at UCF would be viewed as worse than Ohio State's road loss to Texas, especially after the Longhorns added a quality win against Ole Miss on Saturday.
Why they could be lower: The loss to unranked, three-loss UCF is something that would stand out to the committee, although they would also consider it was in double overtime on the road after an emotional home win against Notre Dame. The twist is that BYU's loss is worse than Notre Dame's loss. Some committee members might be swayed more by who the Cougars lost to than who they beat, and that they didn't have much control in either game.
Need to know: The Big 12's chances of getting multiple teams into the CFP took a hit on Saturday with both BYU and Texas Tech losing. BYU and Utah still have to play each other, guaranteeing someone a loss. The Big 12 champion is guaranteed a spot in the playoff, but it will be more difficult for the runner-up to get in too with multiple losses.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Utah. It will be BYU's first road game against a ranked opponent, and it's a rivalry game that has both Big 12 and CFP implications.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-1)
Why they could be here: The Irish are stuck behind BYU because of the head-to-head loss, as close as it was. Notre Dame's season-opening win continues to gain value, as Wisconsin handled USC on Saturday to improve to 5-2. Of the three comparable teams -- Notre Dame, BYU and Georgia -- Notre Dame's scoring defense (13.4 points per game) is by far the best. Georgia, though, has the best scoring offense of the three (43 points per game).
Why they could be lower: North Carolina and Wisconsin are the only teams above .500 that Notre Dame has beaten. Everyone else is a combined 10-21. The Irish also lost the only game they played against a ranked opponent, and while the game went down to the wire, Notre Dame had to battle to have a chance. The stingy Irish defense allowed BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier to complete 72% of his passes in the first half when they fell behind by 11 points.
Need to know: While the Nov. 7 game against Miami will be the season-defining moment for the Irish, the selection committee will also consider how Notre Dame fares on Nov. 21 against SMU. The Mustangs have won four straight and just hammered Cal, 59-20. If they can keep it up, Notre Dame could have two more chances to impress the committee against ranked opponents -- or two more ways to tumble out.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Miami. ESPN's FPI gives Notre Dame at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games.
6. Indiana Hoosiers (7-1)
Why they could be here: The Hoosiers escaped the Big House with a win for the first time since 1967, but they needed overtime to do it against a now three-loss Michigan team. Even with former quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Hoosiers have been a run-first team, but Josh Hoover threw the ball just 18 times against Michigan and had one interception. He ran the game-winner in, though, to prevent back-to-back losses for the first time under Curt Cignetti. Indiana's defense has been the best in the Big Ten through eight games, but the Hoosiers' offense has been just above average in conference play.
Why they could be lower: Indiana has one win against a ranked opponent -- a narrow 29-23 home win against Northwestern on Sept. 25. The Hoosiers cruised through their nonconference schedule, outscoring opponents 145-16, but none of them were Power 4 level, and one was a 55-0 drubbing of Howard from the FCS. Indiana lost the biggest game it played -- albeit by a literal foot out of bounds to Ohio State -- but has been fortunate to win the games against teams above .500.
Need to know: If Indiana loses to USC on Nov. 14, there's no guarantee the Hoosiers will finish in the top 12 -- even if they are the reigning national champs. IU would have lost the two biggest games on its schedule, and it might not have enough on its résumé to win a debate with other two-loss contenders that played a more challenging schedule.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 vs. USC. This will likely be the last ranked opponent the Hoosiers face during the regular season.
7. Utah Utes (7-0)
Why they could be here: The Utes finally got a win against a ranked opponent -- and against a team with a winning record. Saturday's narrow home win against Houston kept Utah as the Big 12's lone undefeated team, but it was hardly a resounding performance. Utah needed a 14-0 edge in the fourth quarter to beat Houston, and it came a week after narrowly escaping a 2-5 Colorado team, 27-24. Still, it was the best defensive performance against the best competition.
Why they could be lower: According to ESPN Analytics, Utah's strength of schedule is the lowest of any of the contenders -- by about 60 spots, which is glaring in the committee meeting room. Utah outscored Idaho of the FCS, Arkansas and Utah State by a combined 142-24. Once Big 12 play started, though, the Utes allowed three straight sub-.500 opponents at least 17 points each.
Need to know: Even one loss could open the door for Utah to fall out of the CFP race because the rest of its résumé is so weak. Utah is at Cincinnati on Halloween, which could be a trap game given the Bearcats just beat Texas Tech soundly. Could Cincinnati be a playoff team? Only if it wins the Big 12, which would take some help. If Utah loses to Cincinnati, though, it will be in must-win mode against BYU.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. BYU. Neither team faces Texas Tech during the regular season, but the winner of this game could get one step closer to it in the Big 12 title game.
8. UCLA Bruins (7-0)
Why they could be here: UCLA has been one of the top five teams in the country in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, and three road wins against Power 4 opponents helps. The selection committee also considers injuries to key players, and UCLA has had to move forward without injured starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The Bruins have continued to find ways to win with backup Ty Dieffenbach, who was making his second start Saturday, and they left no doubt against Michigan State that they were the better team. UCLA's résumé also got a boost from Wisconsin's win against USC, as the Bruins' 17-7 win against the Badgers is one of their best.
Why they could be lower: The Bruins' home win against 2-6 Michigan State isn't going to wow the committee, and their Oct. 10 win at Oregon isn't as impressive after the Ducks lost their third game. UCLA also ranks outside the top 10 nationally in offensive efficiency and total efficiency.
Need to know: With a home game Saturday against Nevada, UCLA should be undefeated heading into the first CFP ranking of the season. ESPN's FPI gives the Bruins at least a 93% chance to win on Saturday.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. USC. It's not going to be easy to beat Michigan on the road the week before -- the Wolverines' defense should give UCLA its biggest challenge all season. But beating their crosstown rivals in a game that could have playoff implications for both teams will loom larger -- especially if UCLA stumbles in the Big House. ESPN's FPI gives UCLA less than a 50% chance win against both Michigan and USC.
9. Kentucky Wildcats (7-1)
Why they could be here: The Wildcats continue to win the games they should -- and find ways to beat teams they're not expected to. The Oct. 10 win against LSU looks even better after the Tigers played one of their best games in a win against Auburn on Saturday. Kentucky's 34-17 home win against 3-5 Vanderbilt won't boost the Wildcats in the committee room, but they again avoided an upset and left no doubt against an unranked opponent. Kentucky has three SEC road wins, and a good loss in Week 2 to a ranked Alabama team. They've reeled off six straight wins since then.
Why they could be higher: Kentucky could have a case to be ranked ahead of undefeated UCLA, even though it has one loss. The road win at South Carolina looks even better after the Gamecocks knocked off Tennessee on Saturday, Texas A&M is still a .500 team, and the three SEC road wins are arguably better than UCLA's wins at Cal (3-5), Maryland (2-5) and Oregon (4-3). Historically in the committee meeting room, undefeated records don't guarantee a higher ranking.
Need to know: Kentucky's true place in the playoff picture will be revealed in November, as the Wildcats have three straight games against ranked opponents before hosting rival Louisville to end the season. It's been better for playoff hopes for teams to lose early than late, which is why Kentucky's initial ranking is important to see how much margin for error the Wildcats have down the stretch. Their résumé is complete before the first ranking is revealed because of a bye.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 at Tennessee. Kentucky has a bye week to prepare for this road trip. The Vols were able to beat Alabama 26-10, a significant result, considering the Tide was the only opponent that was able to knock off Kentucky.
10. Texas Longhorns (5-2)
Why they could be here: The Longhorns held off Ole Miss to make a case as the selection committee's top two-loss teams with three ranked wins against Ohio State, at Tennessee and now the Rebels. Texas got the kind of performance it needed from quarterback Arch Manning, and won in spite of a plethora of injuries to key players, which the committee also considers. The head-to-head results here help separate this pack of two-loss teams, as Texas beat Ole Miss and the Rebels beat LSU.
Why they could be lower: The committee evaluates the entire body of work -- not just one game -- and for the bulk of the season, the Longhorns' offense has been average. After seven games, Texas is still one of the least explosive teams in the country (25 plays of at least 20 yards), and just 3.8 yards per carry. Florida is another two-loss team and it beat Texas on Oct. 17. The Oct. 10 loss to rival Oklahoma was damaging, as the Sooners are 4-3 and haven't been able to win back-to-back games yet. Some committee members could still honor the head-to-head result against the Gators because their records are the same.
Need to know: Three of the Longhorns' last four games are on the road -- at Missouri, at LSU and at Texas A&M to end the regular season.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU. If both teams still only have two losses heading into that game, it could determine which one earns an at-large bid.
11. Ole Miss Rebels (5-2)
Why they could be here: The Rebels' win against LSU in Week 3 kept them from falling any lower, but they don't have enough statement wins to negate the head-to-head loss to Texas. With Louisville just above .500 at 4-3, the season opener is still respectable in the committee meeting room, and it's a tougher nonconference opponent than some other contenders have faced. The 31-3 win against a top-25 Mizzou team also helps the Rebels' résumé. Then there's the human element, and selection committee members will know that Ole Miss went to Florida a week after an emotional home win against its former coach Lane Kiffin and LSU.
Why they could be lower: Florida beat Texas AND Ole Miss, and there could be committee members who rank the Gators ahead of them both. And Florida didn't just win -- it dismantled Ole Miss, 52-28. (The Gators, though, had back-to-back lopsided losses to Missouri and unranked South Carolina, which is why they did not crack the top 12.)The only true road game the Rebels have won was Oct. 10 at Vanderbilt.
Need to know: It's not all about résumé, and the Ole Miss defense has left room for questions. The Rebels have 70 missed tackles this season, and rank among the worst in the country in yards per game (nearly 400), passing yards per game (233), and third-down conversions (41.3%). They've also allowed opponents 56 explosive plays (rushes of at least 10 yards, and completions of at least 20 yards).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Georgia. It's the last ranked opponent Ole Miss will face during the regular season. If the Rebels don't win, it will likely cost them a spot in the playoff.
12. LSU Tigers (6-2)
Why they could be here: The Tigers are still ranked behind the two teams they lost to (Ole Miss and Kentucky), but they've outscored their past two SEC opponents by a combined 69-17. The Tigers might have been written off more in the court of public opinion than in the committee meeting room, which would take into account the intangibles involved in the emotional loss at Ole Miss during Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford. With the win at Auburn on Saturday, LSU displayed what it's capable of when everything comes together and quarterback Sam Leavitt is efficient and limits turnovers. That cohesiveness was lacking earlier in the season.
Why they could be lower: LSU's 51-10 drubbing of Clemson in the season-opener has been devalued, and it took another hit on Saturday when the Tigers lost to Virginia Tech and dropped to 4-3. The 63-14 dismantling of McNeese on Oct. 3 along with a 45-14 win against Louisiana Tech on Sept. 12 pads the stats but won't generate much interest in the committee room. Saturday's win at Auburn was LSU's first road win of the season.
Need to know: LSU has the second-toughest remaining schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, which is exactly what it needs to impress the selection committee. LSU has a bye week to prepare for its season-defining stretch against three straight ranked opponents, starting on Nov. 7 against Alabama followed by Nov. 14 vs. Texas and Nov. 21 at Tennessee. ESPN's FPI gives LSU at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games. If the playoff were today, LSU would get bumped out of the bracket for the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which is currently projected to be Boise State.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 7 vs. Alabama. The Tide also has a bye to prepare, and both teams will be looking to avoid a devastating third loss.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 BYU (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Utah
No. 9 Kentucky at No. 8 UCLA
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 BYU
No. 11 Ole Miss/No. 6 Indiana winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Utah winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Kentucky/No. 8 UCLA winner vs. No. 1 Miami