NFL Week 3 betting guide: Analysis and top plays for Sunday's games

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space: finding betting value.

Ben Solak, Seth Walder and Matt Bowen bring different perspectives into how they approach sports betting. Solak leans on his expertise in player evaluation and the X's and O's to find edges, while Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets, focusing mainly on defense. Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts positive matchups and game-winners from tape study and his understanding of the league.

From spreads and money lines to totals and defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere. Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. With that, let's dive into our best bets, favorite defensive props and the top game to bet in Week 3.

Note: Odds by DraftKings and subject to change.

Jump to:
Bowen's Game of the Week | Solak's plays | Walder's props

Bowen's Game of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins (-10.5, 46.5)
1 p.m. ET on CBS, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla.

I tend to stay away from double-digit spreads in this league (especially for road favorites). That can be bad business given the talent level and coaching we get on Sundays. But looking at the matchup and scheme advantages with Kansas City, I'm in on Andy Reid's team. I'll give you my quick notes for both clubs, along with some player props.

When the Chiefs have the ball: The offseason addition of Kenneth Walker III has given the Chiefs a true difference-maker with dual-threat traits in the backfield. Walker has rushed for at least 117 yards -- with at least 23 carries -- in both games this season, and in a Week 2 win over the Indianapolis Colts he caught six of 10 targets for 61 yards. We can expect Walker to get his touches on the ground against a Miami defense giving up 112.5 rushing yards per game (18th in the NFL), which allows Reid's unit to control offensive tempo.

In the pass game, I see clear matchup advantages for the Chiefs. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 8.6 YPA (30th in the NFL), and they play man coverage at a rate of 58.9% (fourth most). Look for Reid to set up his receivers for catch-and-run throws from Patrick Mahomes, with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce working multiple levels of the field against a Miami secondary that lacks high-end talent.

When Miami has the ball: The Dolphins have struggled to build offensive rhythm and lack an identity, having failed to score more than 13 points in each of their first two games. Running back De'Von Achane has rushed for a total of 110 yards this season, and we aren't seeing his elite pass-catching ability (he has only 49 yards receiving). Quarterback Malik Willis has shown flashes, but his accuracy has been inconsistent (completing 58% of his passes), and he has thrown only one touchdown pass.

Now, Miami does have some young talent in the pass game with Malik Washington, Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell, but the Dolphins lack a proven No. 1 who can win critical game situations at a high rate. They average only 183.5 passing yards per game, and now get a multiple Chiefs defense -- one that leans on late movement and schemed pressure. This Kansas City defense is giving up 90 yards rushing per game and only 5.5 YPA. Miami will need to find a way to create positive game flow while producing some explosive plays to stay in this one.

Now, let's get to some prop bets ...

Rashee Rice receiving yards OVER 47.5 (-114)

Rice, who caught four of six targets for 83 yards in the Week 2 win over the Colts, could have early opportunities against the Dolphins' single-high man coverages. Rice can turn an underneath throw into an explosive gain.

Travis Kelce receptions OVER 4.5 receptions (-114)

Kelce's play speed looked different last week against the Colts, both in the route stem and after the catch. Kelce caught nine of 11 targets in that game, using his high-end coverage awareness to find open grass. He should be a priority target again for Mahomes on Sunday.

Tyquan Thornton anytime TD (+475)

I'm thinking of a shot-play throw here to Thornton on Sunday. Thornton caught all four of his targets for 86 yards last week against the Colts, so look for Reid to set up him on a deep-ball concept in Miami.

Solak's plays

play

Why Domonique Foxworth feels scorned for believing the Cowboys hype

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-105) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Injuries are important to watch heading into this game. Not one of WR Zay Flowers, OT Ronnie Stanley or OLB Trey Hendrickson practiced Wednesday for the Ravens. Still, head coach Jesse Minter said after practice that he feels "like we will have a good shot with a lot of guys this week."

Assuming the Ravens are relatively close to full strength, I like their matchup against Dallas quite a bit. The Cowboys' back seven has struggled tremendously through two weeks of the Christian Parker era on defense; it's a challenging defensive scheme, and they are generally lacking for team speed. Their light edge rushers can be targeted in the run game. Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle has excelled at two things so far: attacking the edge in the running game, and generating YAC opportunities for Flowers. Baltimore might steamroll the Cowboys.

I'm a little worried about the travel and field in Brazil, which can introduce some chaos. The Cowboys' offense can also score in bunches. But the Ravens are a better pressure team, thanks to the play of Hendrickson and Minter's willingness to send pressures on key downs. I like them to get enough stops in what should be a high-scoring affair.

I'd take this up to -4 (-110), but only if we get positive injury news throughout the week.

Zay Flowers 90+ receiving yards (+154)

I have all of the Flowers overs and alts for similar reasons listed above. Flowers was red hot in Week 1, with five catches for 150 yards and a score on six targets in just the first half against Indianapolis. Now he gets a Cowboys secondary that might be without starting CB Cobie Durant and S P.J. Locke, both of whom defensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer said are likely to sit out multiple weeks, and fellow safety Malik Hooker, who fractured his forearm in Week 1, sat out Week 2 and did not practice Wednesday. The Cowboys' secondary is already bleeding talent.

This also is a bust-riddled group that has already dealt with communication changes (rookie third-round LB Jaishawn Barham wore the green dot in Week 2) because of linebacker injuries. With Flowers' speed and positional versatility, the Ravens should be able to funnel him easy targets in space at will.

Of course, Flowers might not go this week; he's dealing with a hamstring injury, and the field in Brazil is reportedly imperfect. But if he does go, I want to have his numbers from early in the week before they get steamed.

Houston Texans -2.5 (-118) at Indianapolis Colts

Two 0-2 division rivals seemingly with their seasons already on the line -- intense stuff for Week 3. I admired the Colts' pluck in their game against the Chiefs, but the Texans' defense is made of far stiffer stuff. Houston has won the last five games between the teams, though QB Daniel Jones was hurt for the most recent matchup.

The Colts have relied heavily on big-play receiver Alec Pierce to generate explosive plays against DeMeco Ryans' aggressive defense. Last season against the Texans across two games, Pierce had eight catches, 210 yards and three touchdowns. Pierce hurt his heel against the Chiefs and is on injured reserve, which puts all the more pressure on Josh Downs, Keenan Allen and Laquon Treadwell at receiver. It's hard to imagine the Colts finding the same big plays that the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals have against this Texans secondary.

I'm happy to buy the Texans now before the number hits -3, even though Nico Collins (hamstring) did not practice Wednesday. The reporting around the injury last week made it seem minor, such that I'm willing to take the risk that he gets activated later this week. If not, the Colts' linebacker and safety room are still a major weak point, and C.J. Stroud is great working that middle of the field.

I'd only take this at -2.5 until we hear more about Collins.

David Montgomery anytime TD (-110), 2+ TD scorer (+550)

I'm thrilled to get Montgomery back down near even money after the Texans' absolute stinker against the Bengals in Week 2. Montgomery's number is low this week out of fear of another inept offensive day without Collins, but the Texans weren't all that bad on offense. One drive ended at the Bengals' 16-yard line on a fumbled field goal try. Another ended on the Bengals' 18 on a fourth-and-1 run failure. Another resulted in a field goal from the Bengals' 19, a fearful attempt on fourth-and-1 as the Bengals were dominating in short yardage. So, the Texans moved the ball a lot more effectively than the scoreboard would indicate.

They'll be much better in short yardage when they don't have DT Dexter Lawrence II to face -- and, in general, they should find easier offense against a young and leaky Colts defense. We already know that once the Texans are in the red zone, they mash the Montgomery button aggressively -- doubly so, I'd imagine, if Collins can't go.

I have a unit on 1+ touchdown and a quarter-unit on two touchdowns at +550, which I wouldn't take any lower than +530.

Arizona Cardinals +8.5 (-112) at San Francisco 49ers

These are two teams about which, I'd argue, we still know very little. The 49ers got the sleepy Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 Down Under and trounced them thoroughly. They drew the listless Dolphins in Week 2 and gave them the business as well. I have no doubt the 49ers are a good team, but how good is unclear -- and they've gotten even more banged up in the interim. DT C.J. West is going on injured reserve, and WR Demarcus Robinson is expected to sit out time because of a high-ankle sprain. Behind Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr., the 49ers are perilously thin at wide receiver. Of course, the Cardinals have their own injuries at corner (Will Johnson, Max Melton, Garrett Williams), but they're a heavy zone team anyway and can hide those issues more easily.

The Cardinals got the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1, and that win looked good ... until we saw the Chargers in Week 2. Arizona's offense got punked by Mike Macdonald and the Seattle Seahawks defense, but I've seen elite offenses struggle against that group. I still suspect this is a perfectly average offense, and the 49ers' defense is still a suspiciously young and thin group.

I think the Cardinals get a good ground game going that shortens this contest and keeps it within a touchdown. Even if the 49ers get an early lead, I don't think they have a great answer for TE Trey McBride. If they pull LB Fred Warner out of the middle of the field to stick with the tight end in man coverage, Jacoby Brissett and Mike LaFleur will start spamming in-breakers. I'd take this to +8.

Emmett Johnson rushing + receiving yards OVER 38.5 (-114)

Johnson, a fifth-round rookie running back out of Nebraska, is the clear RB2 behind Kenneth Walker III, and he has been explosive in limited usage (39 yards on 10 carries and 64 yards on four receptions). He's an aggressive, upfield runner who seeks contact and sheds it well -- and, because he can contribute on both running and receiving downs, he's a good foil to Walker.

The Chiefs are double-digit favorites over the Dolphins in Miami this Sunday, and in a blowout script, we can anticipate Johnson gets a heavy dose of running game usage. He has been more effective as a dump-off player, so I like taking his rushing and receiving yards here as a protection against game script and overall efficiency. If he runs into loaded boxes in a lopsided second half and doesn't accumulate yardage, or if the game ends up oddly close, he still can pop a big reception against the passive Dolphins defense and still get home.

I would take this line up to 40 yards, and I'd consider overs on rushing attempts as well when that posts.

KC Concepcion receiving yards OVER 32.5 (-112)

I'm back to the well on Concepcion, who burned us last week with only 29 yards on six receptions. The Cleveland Browns had a couple of downfield plays dialed up for Concepcion, whom they continued to use in enticing ways from the slot and in motion, but they never got the ball in the air.

Still, we have a player getting designed touches in the screen game and who is the safety valve underneath and is also still running vertical routes, with an average route depth (12.4) just below the league average for WRs (13.0). I see no reason to fade Concepcion's route totals, especially against a Carolina Panthers defense that has faced only one real offense so far this year (and gave up 59 points when they did so). The Browns are also always liable to enter a big negative game script, which should funnel easy targets.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Concepcion will get home this week. I'd take the number up to 34.5.

Bo Nix rushing yards UNDER 17.5 (-111)

There has been only one scramble through two games for Nix in 2026, which is notable, as Nix was scrambling 2.3 times per game in 2025. It doesn't seem to be related to the ankle injury -- he's moving just fine -- so my theory is that it's related to the new Davis Webb offensive approach. Either the Broncos brass has stressed upon him the importance of putting the ball in play, or Nix is more comfortable with the playcalls as they're given to him and is less likely to cut bait to tuck and go.

Whatever it is, I'll take his under on his rushing yards against the Rams. With the litany of RB injuries the Broncos have, I think the Rams will be willing to play Nix's keeps on read-option a little more aggressively. I also expect the Rams to be a heavy zone team in this game despite the shift to man coverage in Week 2. Nix has historically been a much shakier passer against zone than man coverage. Zone coverage allows defenders to keep their eyes on scrambling quarterbacks, which limits yardage on the hoof.

I wouldn't take the number any lower than this -- just one big run could get us in trouble at such a small figure.

Geno Smith 2+ passing TDs (+157)

There's huge familiarity here between Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell and New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn, who was Campbell's defensive coordinator in Detroit for three seasons. Glenn's linebackers coach, Kelvin Sheppard, has replaced him and runs a similar, but slightly more versatile defense.

Still, I expect Glenn to have a good bead on the things that will give Sheppard trouble, especially in spots where coverage gets predictable -- like the red zone. Detroit's defense plays with heavier boxes than any defense in football, so I expect a lot of dropbacks for Smith. With Mason Taylor out because of a wrist injury, the Jets have also lost their primary in-line tight end, and I think the rushing efficiency is going to suffer.

Of all the Smith overs I'm interested in this week, I'll take 2+ passing touchdowns at this long of a number. Smith has thrown only one TD pass, but the Jets are 53.3% pass in the red zone through two games (right around league average). They aren't hiding him at this part of the field.

Walder's prop bets

Note: More defensive props will be added as odds become available

Defensive plays

Chargers to NOT allow a sack on first drive (-311)

Everything is bad with the Chargers. But it's not this bad. For context, the same bet for the Bills is -482. Even the Commanders, similarly-sized underdogs with a backup quarterback going against an elite Seattle defense, are -349 this week. So, at -311, I see the Chargers as a value. And though the Chargers being big underdogs increases the chance of Justin Herbert getting sacked during the game, that effect is mitigated early on. The Chargers won't be forced into a desperate must-pass situation on their first drive. Plus, the Bills rank just 27th in pass rush win rate, which further lowers the probability of a first-drive sack.

Offensive plays

Kyler Murray interceptions UNDER 0.5 (+121)

The thing to know about forecasting interceptions is how close to 50/50 the baseline expectation for the average quarterback in the average game is. So when we see a +121 line for the under, that usually indicates a poor quarterback and/or a heavy underdog. I don't think Murray is that. Whatever you think of Murray -- and, I'll admit, I've long been a little more bullish on him than consensus -- he has been very consistent in terms of his interception rate, ranging between 1.6% and 1.8% each of his four previous seasons, all at or a little better than average. During that span, he never had a dropped interception, either. Add in that the Minnesota Vikings are favored and my model doesn't see why Murray should to be priced this way. I would bet this down to +105.

Bryce Young pass attempts UNDER 33.5 (-124)

The Carolina Panthers have been surprisingly pass-happy through the first two weeks of the season, with a plus-4% pass rate over expectation, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, fifth highest in the NFL. That's a massive departure from last year, when Carolina was negative 8% and ranked 31st in the same category. This bet hinges on whether what we've seen thus far continues. My attempts model is betting not. And there's also another quite simple path to a win here: If the Panthers simply blow out the Browns early -- and that's always possible when you're facing Deshaun Watson -- they'll rely on the run game in the second half.