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Daily Rumble: Werth believes he's staying put

By Jayson Stark
ESPN
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It's tough to remember this sort of thing this time of year, so we'll remind you:

On the other end of every trade rumor, there's a human being -- who just happens to play baseball for a living -- whose entire life is floating in all the hot air we generate.

READY TO RUMBLE

Hello Houston: A source familiar with the Roy Oswalt talks tells Rumblings they're "going nowhere" at the moment. And there are increasing questions at this point as to whether Oswalt is going to get traded, period, unless the price drops considerably.

As we reported yesterday, the Astros have asked teams for four players -- one frontline young player off the big league roster, two high-end prospects and one second-tier prospect. And at this point, said one source, "nobody is even close."

So the Dodgers are now looking into Ted Lilly. The Phillies have kicked around a variety of other options -- from bullpen (primarily Scott Downs) to infield bats (primarily Miguel Tejada). And the Cardinals, according to clubs that have spoken with them, now believe there's almost no chance Houston would deal Oswalt to them. Meanwhile, clubs all over the sport are wondering just how interested Astros owner Drayton McLane is in trading Oswalt at all, unless it's a slam-dunk overpayment.

"The dynamics in Houston are different," said an official of one club that checked in on Oswalt and then checked out. "Seattle was motivated to trade Cliff Lee. Arizona was motivated to trade Dan Haren. I don't really know how motivated Drayton is to move Roy Oswalt. I think he was trying to do this as a favor to Roy. But now he's got the agent [Bob Garber] trying to direct it and dictate terms. And I can promise you that ticks Drayton off to no end. So I just don't know how motivated he is to do it at this point."

National treasures: As our buddy Tim Kurkjian reported Monday, the chances of the Nationals trading Adam Dunn (likely to the White Sox) seem to be increasing with every day that goes by that they fail to make progress on an extension. But we're hearing the Nationals, in the end, could wind up trading Josh Willingham instead of Dunn. Among the many teams interested in Willingham: Atlanta, Boston and Tampa Bay. If the Nationals do deal a bat, they would either trade Dunn or Willingham, but not both.

No Cantu: The big hang-up in the Jorge Cantu-to-Texas talk appears to be dollars. Clubs that have spoken with the Rangers say they're telling teams they can't add any payroll. So they've asked Florida to pay virtually all of the approximately $2 million left on Cantu's deal this year. And the Marlins are balking at that unless the Rangers are willing to dramatically upgrade the player return. The Rockies and Giants have also aggressively pursued Cantu.

Fish talk: Other than Cantu, clubs speaking with the Marlins say they've put the brakes on all their deals, because they consider themselves to be back in the NL East and wild-card races. Pitchers Ricky Nolasco and Leo Nunez now appear to be off the market entirely. And one club says it was told Florida is even "going slow" on outfielder Cody Ross, who has been pursued by the Braves, Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies.

Los Padres: The Padres have been trying to hone in on a left-field bat. But their three main targets -- David DeJesus, Corey Hart and Werth -- are suddenly either hurt, prohibitively expensive or fading off the market entirely. So the Padres now seem to be shifting toward just adding depth. Among the names linked to them: Ryan Theriot and Jeff Keppinger.

Keep your Sox on: Two teams that have spoken to the Red Sox say that, outside of trying to tweak their bullpen, they're not likely to do anything major this week. They, too, were focused on DeJesus and Werth. But now, with Jacoby Ellsbury on the verge of returning and the prospect of their roster actually getting healthy for the first time all year, they're likely to just wait, monitor where they are in the standings and see what's out there in the August waiver market.

Lilly of the field: An official of one club speaking with the Cubs says, flatly, that Ted Lilly "is definitely going to get moved." But events of the past week haven't helped the Cubs' leverage. The Tigers are now reassessing their direction in the wake of all their injuries. The Mets have backed off their shopping plans after their disastrous road trip, though they could also charge back into the August market if they get hot. And the Dodgers seem to be waiting on pursuing Lilly hard until they determine first whether they can deal for Oswalt. Nevertheless, there's still no effective starting pitcher more available these days than Lilly.

Just imagine, for one second, being that human being -- knowing those rumors are flying, not sure what to believe, answering questions from knuckleheads like us, taking nonstop abuse from teammates. You think that's easy? You think that's fun?

Of course not. And that brings us to one of those human beings: Jayson Werth of the Phillies. All of a sudden, over the past couple of weeks, he's been showing up in more rumors than Angelina Jolie. He's going to Tampa Bay. He's going to San Diego. He's going to Boston. Except he's not.

For now.

This very column described him 24 hours ago as the best position player available. But officials of two teams that have been talking to the Phillies told Rumblings on Tuesday they no longer believe Werth is getting traded at all.

"They're 2½ [games] out of the wild card," said one of those officials. "I don't see them selling Werth unless they're overwhelmed by a [win-now] major league piece."

"I really don't think [Phillies GM] Ruben [Amaro] can get what he wants for him," said the other official. "I don't think he can get the right pitcher. I don't think he can get the right pitcher/hitter combo. And at this point, he's not going to take prospects. So I think [Werth] is going to stay right where he is and finish out the year."

Then again, that's as of Tuesday. The deadline is Saturday. A lot can change. Werth knows that. He knows it because he's been a Human Trade Rumor before, back in 2004, when he was a Dodger.

Werth

"I was watching ESPN, and they said I'd been traded for Randy Johnson," he said. "That was it. The deal was done. Peter Gammons said it on the air. And it never happened."

So now here he is, six years later, swirling in the same Human Trade Rumor breeze. And because of what he went through last time, he's learned not to call any moving vans yet -- or even to listen too hard or read too much.

"I can't tell you for sure what's out there," he said. "I mean, I'm aware of it. I get asked questions about it. My teammates joke around about it. But as far as the speculation about who or where -- I have no idea. I've never really paid much attention to it. I'm not up late reading the blog sites."

Whether he knows it or not, though, he hasn't turned up in those rumors just because a few guys with a microphone and a notepad got bored and made this up. The Phillies really did toss Werth's name out there to a bunch of teams -- Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, White Sox, Giants, Padres, etc. -- to see what it might bring them back.

But the Phillies were never exactly certain, in the beginning, whether they needed to trade him for a pitcher, a bat to replace him next year if he bolts down a free-agent exit ramp, or prospects to use in another deal.

Then some of those other deals -- such as Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren -- started blowing up. And the Phillies went on a five-game winning streak. And suddenly they were back in the race. And everything changed again.

So the Human Trade Rumor continues to focus on life where he is. And if something happens in the next few days, and it becomes time to focus on life somewhere else, he'll worry about that when he has to -- not because his name shows up daily in Rumor Central.

"It's like that Randy Johnson deal," Werth said. "That didn't end up happening. And I don't think this is going to happen. Now I could be dead wrong. I could get traded by this team. But I just don't think so."

And an official of a club that's been talking to the Phillies agrees. Considering where they are in the standings, they're "not going to give up now," the official said. "They're not as anxious to sell, unless it makes total sense. And I don't see that happening."

So after all that talk, there's a good chance those 4.6 billion Jayson Werth trade rumors will lead absolutely nowhere. But this time of year, you never count on anything -- especially when you're a Human Trade Rumor.

Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His latest book, "Worth The Wait: Tales of the 2008 Phillies," was published by Triumph Books and is available in bookstores and online. Click here to order a copy.

• ARCHIVE: Monday -- Welcome to the Roy Oswalt Show

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Now that Dan Haren has been traded, who could be the next to go? Using the drop-downs below, get all of the latest on which players might be dealt and which teams will be buyers or sellers leading up to the trade deadline.

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JULY TRADES

JULY 25
• The Diamondbacks traded RHP Dan Haren to the Angels for LHP Joe Saunders, RHP Rafael Rodriguez, LHP Patrick Corbin and a player to be named later.
JULY 22
• The Angels traded RHP Sean O'Sullivan and LHP Will Smith to the Royals for INF Alberto Callaspo.
JULY 14
• The Blue Jays acquired SS Yunel Escobar and LHP Jo-Jo Reyes from the Braves for SS Alex Gonzalez, LHP Tim Collins and INF Tyler Pastornicky.
JULY 9
• The Mariners traded LHP Cliff Lee and RHP Mark Lowe to the Rangers for 1B Justin Smoak, RHP Blake Beavan, RHP Josh Lueke and INF Matt Lawson.
JULY 7
• The Padres traded RHP Sean Gallagher to the Pirates for cash considerations.
JULY 1
• The Astros traded C Kevin Cash to the Red Sox for INF Angel Sanchez.
• The Rangers traded RHP Chris Ray and RHP Michael Main to the Giants for C Bengie Molina and cash.